Category Archives: 2012 Election
“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama
“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote
Since the above exchange between the President and the footnote the following indicators show the private sector is indeed “doing fine”, info comes from FOX Business:
First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion, Microsoft reported $16 billion, and Procter & Gamble reported $20.7 billion, Cisco reported $11.9 billion …
In the second quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion and AT&T reported $31.6 billion …
Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion, Wells Fargo reported $21.2 billion, J.P. Morgan Chase reported $25.9 billion, Citigroup reported $19.4 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $17.1 billion, Goldman Sachs reported $8.35 billion, Coca-Cola reported $12.34 billion, IBM reported $24.7 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Bank of America reported $20.4 billion, American Express reported $7.9 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7.6 billion, Travelers reported $6.51, Google reported $11.3 billion, McDonald’s reported $7.2 billion, Caterpillar reported $16.45 billion, Yahoo! Reported $1.09 billion, Texas Instruments reported $3.39 billion, United Parcel Service reported $13.07 billion, 3M reported $7.5 billion, AT&T reported $31.5 billion, Boeing reported $20 billion, Merck reported $11.49 billion, Pfizer’s reported $14 billion, Wal-Mart reported $113.2 billion, Dell reported $13.7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.75 billion
Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion, Apple reported $36 billion, Walt Disney reported $10.78 billion, Hewlett-Packard reported $30 billion
The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.
The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.
The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.
A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.
A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for the month of October checked in at 83.1, up from a September reading of 78.3 and marking the highest reading since September 2007, according to a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting sentiment to decrease to 78.
A reading on consumer sentiment for early November rose to 84.9 from 82.6 in October, topping expectations for a reading of 83. The reading was the highest since July 2007.
Gross Domestic Product:
A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.
A preliminary reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter and slightly above estimates of 1.9%.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.
Home Sales (existing homes):
Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.
Existing home sales rose 2.1% in October from September to a 4.79-million unit annualized rate, coming in slightly ahead of estimates of a 4.75-million unit annualized rate, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Home Sales (new single-family homes):
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose 5.7% in September to a 389,000-unit annualized rate, topping estimates of a 385,000-unit rate and marking the highest reading since April 2010.
U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.
Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.
The Commerce Department reports housing starts rose 15% to an annualized rate of 872,000 units in September from August. Housing permits jumped 11.6% to an annualized rate of 894,000 units.
U.S. housing starts rose 3.6% in October to an 894,000-unit rate, well above estimates of an 840,000-unit rate and marking the highest pace since July 2008. Housing permits fell 2.7% to an 866,000-unit rate, slightly ahead of estimates of an 865,000-unit rate.
U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September from August, topping estimates of 0.7%. Export prices rose 0.8%, coming in ahead of estimates of 0.4%.
Index of U.S. Consumer Confidence:
The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 72.2 in October from a downwardly revised 68.4 in September. The results missed estimates of a reading of 72.5, but marked the index’s highest level since February 2008.
Manufacturing Sector (U.S. Midwest):
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.
Orders for Long-Lasting Goods:
Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.
The Commerce Department reported orders for long-lasting goods climbed 9.9% in September from August, topping estimates of a 7.1% increase.Personal Spending:
Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.
Pending Home Sales:
U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors reported its index of pending home sales rose 0.3% in September from August, the index climbing 14.5% from a year ago.
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.7 in October from 51.5 in September, the highest reading since May. The index was expected to fall to 51.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 171,000 in October from September, surpassing the 125,000 expected, for 32 straight months of positive job growth. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9% from 7.8%, as expected.
Private Sector Jobs:
The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.
The ADP National Employment Report shows the U.S. private sector added 158,000 jobs in October, more than the 135,000 expected.
Producer prices rose 1.1% in September from August, a bigger jump than the 0.7% expected.
The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in September from August, more than the 0.8% expected. Excluding the auto component, sales were up 1.1%, the biggest rise since January and topping estimates of 0.6%.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.
Service Sector Activity:
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.
Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13,009.53 on 24 Nov 12 …
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ not passing President Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 339,000 during the third week of October from an upwardly revised 369,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000 from an initially reported 367,000.
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 369,000 during the fourth week of October from an upwardly revised 392,000 the week prior.
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 355,000 last week – week ending 3 Nov 12 – from 363,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000. A Labor Department analyst says superstorm Sandy depressed claims in at least one state and resulted in an increase in claims in others.
New claims for unemployment fell to 410,000 from an upwardly revised 451,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 410,000 from an initially reported 439,000. The Labor Department cautioned however that Hurricane Sandy’s still distorting the weekly readings.
According to the Associated Press (AP), Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s telling top donors President Obama was re-elected because of the “gifts” he’d given to Blacks, Hispanics and young voters, and because of the painting him as anti-immigrant.
“The president’s campaign, if you will, focused on giving targeted groups a big gift,” Romney said in a special call to “big” donors this week. “He made a big effort on small things.”
Of course during his call he didn’t bring up any of his own screw ups, like his infamous “47 percent” remark, his lack of support for the auto bailout, his call for illegal immigrants to “self-deport,” or his flip-flopping virtually on every single position.
Among the so-called “gifts” Willard maintains the President had given out in order to win were free health care “in perpetuity,” which Romney alleged was highly motivational to Black and Hispanic voters as well as for voters making $25,000 to $35,000 a year.
Willard also claimed the promise of “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants –”the so-called DREAM Act kids” – helped send Hispanics to the polls for Obama.
Then were the “young voters”, which Romney stated, were motivated by the administration’s plan for partial forgiveness of college loan interest and being able to remain on their parents’ health insurance plans. And of course there were the young women who had the additional incentive to vote for the President because of “free contraception coverage” under the president’s health care plan.
So, according to Willard Mitt Romney, he lost because more than 50% of voters were bought off, not because he sucked, his campaign sucked or because the GOTP’s policies really suck. Not only was Mitt a sad candidate, he’s even a sadder loser.
So, President Obama scores not just a victory but a decisive victory over Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney and former United States Congressman, Speaker of the House and serial adulterer Leroy Newt Gingrich is offering his take on what happened, saying it’s time for the GOTP “to stop, take a deep breath and learn.”
“The president won an extraordinary victory. And the fact is we owe him the respect of trying to understand what they did and how they did it.” Leroy said, “But if you had said to me three weeks ago, Mitt Romney would get fewer votes than John McCain and it looks like he’ll be 2 million fewer, I would have been dumbfounded.”
But wait, that’s not all, in a recent Politico op-ed Gingrich wrote, “For the conservative movement and the Republican Party to succeed in the future (and while they are not identical the two are inextricably bound together) we will have to learn the lessons of 2012.” He explained, “An intellectually honest and courageous Republican Party has nothing to fear from the current situation.”
Asked about what he wrote on NBC’s “Today,” Gingrich said, “The great thing about elections is they belong to the American people.” He added, “I was wrong last week, as was virtually every major Republican analyst. And so, you have to stop and say to yourself, if I was that far off, what do I need to learn to better understand America?”
Well, Newt, to “better understand America”, you need to learn your head’s full of mush, and your party’s archaic platform’s out of touch with 21st century America. It’s not rocket science; conservatives want to defend the wealthy, cut taxes, increase defense spending, nullify Obamacare, overturn Roe v. Wade, and start a war in Iran; thank goodness the majority of American voters disagree.
Today’s the day…
With votes being cast how are the candidates faring in the polls as it all comes to a close?
The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 5 Nov 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 49
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 3 – 5 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 49
Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 49
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12
President Obama 48/Romney 47
Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 48
Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 46
RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 45
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.6/47.4
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 6 Nov 12
According to today’s simulations President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.