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Tea Party says Romney Better Move to Right?

According to news reports the Tea Party (whoever that really is) following an upset primary win by Tea Party (TP) backed Ted Cruz in Texas is telling the presumptive Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential nominee Willard Mitt Romney he better start toeing the mark.

Tea Party backed Republican Texas Senate candidate Rafael Edward Cruz

“These guys [newly elected Tea Party candidates]” are going to force Romney to the right,” said Andrea Shell, a spokeswoman for Tea Party group Freedom Works. “That is our entire mission.”

Cruz won the Texas Republican primary Tuesday night, which considering it is Texas is a virtual win in November as well.

His victory appears – at least on the surface – to be the latest in a string of TP candidates to use anti-establishment frustration within the party to overcome the seemingly deep pockets of more “traditional” conservative candidates; meaning it’s possible to defeat money in the general election folks – even the seemingly bottomless pockets of the Koch Brothers.

“If we can elect a really conservative House and Senate that will force Romney to go along with our bold conservative agenda,” Shell said. “He’s going to have to really, really go to the right. He’ll be working with guys in the House and Senate. He won’t be able to get away with too many middle of the road policies, especially on things like the deficit.”

Of course, first you have to be able to elect “a really conservative House and Senate”, which is unlikely; and second, Willard has be elected President, something also increasingly at odds with the current political trends in poll after poll, but certainly something that could change as Americans are nothing if not fickle.

“If the Tea Party says it wants Romney to move right, I think, that’s were Romney is going anyway,” Newton Leroy Gingrich, former House speaker (who resigned after multiple extra-marital affairs were revealed) and failed GOTP presidential candidate, told ABCNews.com.

“Romney has endorsed the Ryan budget plan, opposed tax increases, and indicated he supports the full repeal of Obamacare. That’s a pretty activist opening day,” Gingrich said.

Yeah, but having that “pretty activist opening day” is a long shot at best, and your candidate just doesn’t seem to have the moxie to pull that off.

“You have to think of Romney as having a foot in the Tea Party and a foot in the establishment,” he said, adding, “that’s right where the Republicans want him.”

Yes, Willard’s trying to have it both ways, being part of the TP and part of the more traditional side of the party; problem with playing both sides is sooner or later you have to choose because a “house divided against itself cannot stand” observed on rather famous former Republican President.

The problem with the Tea Partistas is they just don’t want a candidate simply moving their way they want them completely indoctrinated and marinated in the TP way of life. Romney’s already moved so far to the right during the primaries he’s bending himself into a pretzel to show he’s not some right-wing lunatic, and it’s only adding to the political perception that he’s a flip-flopping etch-a-sketch candidate.

As former Democratic Speaker of the House used to say, “All politics are local”; winning a senate seat in Texas is one thing – especially in a deeply red state, taking those fringe far-right bumper sticker talking points and winning a national election for the presidency is entirely different. The TP had one of its own on the ticket in 2008 and the result was a resounding defeat.

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2012 in 2012 Election, Tea Party

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 11 May 12 Edition

A week after Newton Leroy Gingrich finally bowed out of the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential contest, leaving perennial hopeful Bully-boy Willard Mitt Romney and the other guy in contention; of course Willard still has yet to capture the magic 1,144 delegates to officially make him the nominee.

Willard picked up three more primary victories this week in North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia with 59 delegates and 37 still undecided; the regular season primary wins to date: Romney 29; Ron “Somebody or Other” 1 and anyone but Romney 12.

The GOTP Delegate Count (1,144 needed to win) to date is: Romney 949; other than Romney 426 and Paul 99.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 6,354,712

Other than Romney 6,101,937

Paul 1,554,822

Although Willard’s still the presumptive nominee, it’ still (week after week) a big fat hairy fact, there’ve been more votes cast for anyone but Romney than for Romney:

Anyone but Romney 7,656,759 (55%)

Romney 6,354,712 (45%)

Willard’s still only managing 45% of his own party’s vote to date; and no doubt the President is truly terrified by the amount of support Romney’s garnering.

So, how does the “presumptive” GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The most recent “viable” polls (which are neither FOX News nor Rasmussen); the most current Associated Press/GfK poll of likely voters conducted 03-07 May 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 42

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney would still be the GOTP nominee, and he’d still lose to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on May 11, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 04 May 12 Edition – or, and now there are 1 ½ candidates …

Newton Leroy Gingrich has finally bowed out of the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential contest leaving perennial hopeful Willard Mitt Romney and the other guy; but Willard still has yet to capture the magic 1,144 delegates to officially make him the nominee.

The regular season primary wins to date: Romney 26; Ron “Somebody or Other” 0 and anyone but Romney 12.

The GOTP Delegate Count (1,144 needed to win) to date is: Romney 865; other than Romney 414 and Paul 93.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 5,228,676

Other than Romney 5,780,644

Paul 1,335,822

Although Willard’s still the presumptive nominee, it’ still (week after week) a big fat hairy fact, there’ve been more votes cast for anyone but Romney than for Romney:

Anyone but Romney 7,116,466 (58%)

Romney 5,228,676 (42%)

That’s right sports fans; Willard’s only managing 42% of his own party’s vote to date; the President must be truly terrified by the amount of support Romney’s garnering.

So, how does the “presumptive” GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The most recent “viable” polls (which are neither FOX News nor Rasmussen); but interestingly enough, the most current Rasmussen Tracking poll of likely voters conducted 01-03 May 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 45

However, if you eliminate the traditional five point slant towards the conservative side of Rasmussen’s polling the real numbers are probably somewhere around:

President Obama 52/Romney 45

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on May 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 27 April 12 Edition

Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential hopeful Willard Mitt Romney prevailed in all five primaries held on Tuesday – no duh. Who were his opponents, a disgraced former House Speaker and a crazy Congressman from Texas? And even though he’s running against two virtually non-existing candidates Willard still hasn’t managed to capture the magic 1,144 delegates needed to be the winner; so, he remains the “presumptive” winner.

The biggest news to come from Tuesday’s primaries is that Newton Leroy Gingrich will announce he’s dropping out of the race early next week – of course he hasn’t been in the race since his “colony on the moon” moment.

The regular season primary wins to date: Romney 26; Gingrich 2; Ron “What’s His Name” 0 and anyone but Romney 10.

The GOTP Delegate Count (1,144 needed to win) to date is: Romney 838; other than Romney 267; Gingrich 141 and Paul 88.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 5,221,445

Other than Romney 3,376,375

Gingrich 2,402,960

Paul 1,335,024

Although Willard’s the presumptive nominee, it’ still a big fat hairy fact – as it has been all through the primaries – there’ve been more votes cast for anyone but Romney than for Romney:

Anyone but Romney 7,114,359 (58%)

Romney 5,221,445 (42%)

That’s right sports fans; Willard’s only managing 42% of his own party’s vote to date; the President must be truly terrified by the amount of support Romney’s garnering.

So, how does the “presumptive” GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The most recent “viable” polls (which are neither FOX News nor Rasmussen) the Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 21-26 Apr 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

According to the National Journal poll of voters conducted 19-22 Apr 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 39

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on April 27, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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And then there was one; and two other guys

Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential contender Richard John Santorum has officially ended his 2012 run for the White House; in a short and simple statement from Gettysburg, PA, he said he’s done, cementing Willard Mitt Romney as the party’s – albeit somewhat awkward – standard bearer.

So, why is Ricky dropping out? Has he come to the conclusion – finally – that it truly was over, that there was no way he was going to pull this thing out? Or, has he been offered something from Willard’s camp for his withdrawal? As much as I would hope it’s the latter it’s more than likely the former. The odds were not in his favor – in any way, shape or form – and current polling showed he was falling not just behind, but further and further behind Romney in his home state of Pennsylvania.

With Santorum gone Romney’s home free as there’s next to absolutely no chance Santorum’s followers are suddenly going to rally to either Newton Leroy Gingrich or to Uncle Paul’s banners, and even if they did so, they’d still lose; Gingrich’s campaign is bankrupt and Paul’s never left the tarmac.

It’s all over; move along citizens, nothing left to see here.

 
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Posted by on April 10, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Newt’s sugar daddy says he’s done?

Various news reports are saying Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential “no way it’s ever going to happen” hopeful Newton Leroy Gingrich’s being told he’s done, and Newton’s sugar daddy, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson’s apparently lost any hope in his electoral prospects; that’s pretty much the end when your one chief – if not only – backer decides you’re done. To date Adelson has reportedly poured about $16.5 million down the Gingrich drain.

Adelson’s conceded his “golden boy’s” basically got no chance of winning the GOTP nomination, “It appears as though [Gingrich is] at the end of his line. Because mathematically he can’t get anywhere near the numbers [of delegates required to gain the nomination], and there’s unlikely to be a brokered convention.”

Of course even if there’s a brokered convention who outside of Newt and Callista really believes he’d ever – in a million years – be the GOTP nominee?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Newton’s never had a chance; he’s not just damaged goods, he’s the box that fell out of the UPS truck on the interstate overpass and got pummeled by every other vehicle for the next three hours until there’s nothing left. He’s a failed former House Speaker who resigned in disgrace; a failed former House Speaker who had not one, but at least two extra-marital affairs, while prosecuting a President for lying about an affair; a failed former House Speaker who didn’t just have affairs but who also asked for an “open marriage” and who told one wife he was divorcing her while she was undergoing chemotherapy, all while trumpeting – wait for it – “family values”; yeah, like he ever had a chance; but hopefully he sticks around for awhile if only to annoy Willard.

 
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Posted by on March 29, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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President Obama raises a lot more money than Romney

In spite of Conservative Talker’s efforts claiming President Obama’s losing favor with his constituents and his “lack” of fundraising supposedly being evidence of this, the Obama/Biden team reportedly picked up $45 million for its re-election bid in February, bringing total raised to about $300 million for this election cycle, compared to $11.5 million raised by Republican Tea Party (GOTP) hopeful Willard Mitt Romney for February; of course Romney burned through more than $18 million in January, winning 65 of 115 delegates at a cost of about $277,000 per delegate as he lost Iowa to Rick Santorum and South Carolina to Newton Leroy Gingrich, and while the President had to spend next to nothing in comparison; the President also raised $29.1 million in January compared to Romney’s $6.4 million.

But yeah, he’s nowhere near as popular as Romney …

 
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Posted by on March 19, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Alabama and Mississippi primaries) 12 Mar 12 Edition

Willard Mitt Romney has added, little-by-little, to his delegate lead in the past week for the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential nomination, sweeping his opposition in the Northern Marianas’ Non-Binding Caucus (9 delegates); Virgin Islands’ Non-Binding Caucus (7 delegates) and Guam’s Non-Binding Caucus (9 delegates) taking home a whopping 24 non-binding delegates, meaning they can switch at the convention; but he had his lunch handed to him in Kansas.

Speaking of the Sunflower State, Rick Santorum won a devastating victory over Mittens, taking home 33 delegates from the Kansas Hybrid Primary to Romney’s 7.

Newton Leroy Gingrich won zero delegates out of the last four primaries and caucuses; while Ron Paul garnered one delegate from the contest in the Virgin Islands.

And so the fight heads towards the Deep South:

In Alabama’s Proportional Primary – 13 Mar 12 (50 delegates): a new PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 10 – 11 Mar 12; Romney 31; Gingrich 30; Santorum 29 and Paul 8.

American Samoa’s Proportional Caucus – 13 mar 12 (9 delegates): no polling data available

In Hawaii’s Proportional Caucus with 20 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 16 Oct 11; Romney 24; Gingrich 8; Paul 4 and Santorum 1.

In Mississippi’s Proportional Primary with 52 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 10 – 11 Mar 12; Gingrich 33; Romney 31; Santorum 27 and Paul 7.

In Missouri’s Non-Binding Caucus – 17 Mar 12 (52 delegates): PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12; Gingrich 30; Santorum 28; Romney 24 and Paul 11.

Puerto Rico’s Winner Take All Primary – 18 Mar 12 (23 delegates): no polling data available

In Illinois’ Direct Election Primary – 20 Mar 12 (69 delegates): Chicago Tribune poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 9 Mar 12; Romney 35; Santorum 31; Gingrich 12 and Paul 7.

In Louisiana’s Proportional Primary – 24 mar 12 (46 delegates): Clarus Research poll of likely voters conducted 20 – 22 Nov 12; Gingrich 31; Romney 23; Paul 6 and Santorum 0.

The regular season records for the dauntless candidates: Romney 16; Santorum 7; Gingrich 2 and Paul 0 with Maine still unbelievably yet to be determined.

The GOTP Delegate Count to date is: Romney 455; Santorum 199; Gingrich 117 and Paul 64.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 3,203,592

Santorum 1,974,351

Gingrich 1,832,322

Paul 904,503

Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest CBS News/NY Times poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 11 Mar 12: Santorum 34; Romney 30; Gingrich 13 and Paul 4 with 19% undecided.

So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 10 Mar 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 49

President Obama 49/Santorum 46

If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Rick Santorum would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Mathematically Improbable for Romney to win nomination

Being somewhat of a politics-geek I’ve been thinking why the Romney camp’s pushing the idea he’s the sole inevitable winner of the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating process; the only answer I can come up with is because he’s nothing of the kind and they’re trying to weaken his opponent’s base. They’ve come to understand the longer Rick Santorum and Newton Leroy Gingrich hang on the fewer delegates their guy wins.

If you run the numbers – specifically the number of delegates yet to be won – it’s abundantly clear Romney’s the only one who can still win the nomination outright prior to the GOTP convention 27 – 30 Aug 12; but it’s not very clear at all if he’ll be able to do so, in fact the odds are fast becoming anything but in his favor. There are 878 delegates left to be picked up by the candidates and 1,144 needed for victory; Romney’s picked up 455 delegates to date and still needs to pick up 691 delegates to win, or roughly 80% of all the remaining delegates. If you eliminate the “winner take all” primaries won so far he’s averaging about 33% of delegates, and that’s not going to get it done; even if he wins all the “winner take all” primaries – which he may, but is doubtful – if Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich remain in the race it doesn’t look probable for Romney, and thus a brokered convention is looming more and more on the horizon.

There are 126 so-called “super delegates” available at the GOTP Convention, made up of state chairs and additional RNC types, but they’re not necessarily going all to Romney, especially considering his “popularity” within the party; even if we were to count all the super delegates to Mitt, he only takes the nomination at that point by a mere 50 or so delegates. Santorum or Gingrich could very much act as spoilers sending this into a brokered convention. At any rate, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Mitt’s the nominee. Not just yet.

Of course the only possible way for Santorum to win now is in a brokered convention and that’s what he’s aiming at, he knows he can’t win any other way; Newt’s reason for hanging on is pure and simple, he hates Romney’s guts for the character attacks following the South Carolina primary; so at this point it’s all about keeping Romney from winning. Ron Paul’s still hanging in there but he’s pretty much inconsequential, basically just siphoning off delegates here and there. Romney’s basically in a begging position where he needs the others to fall out.

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Newt says he’ll lower gas prices to $2 per gallon and turn lead to gold

According to the Associated Press (AP) Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential candidate Newton Leroy Gingrich is pulling a page from former candidate Michele Bachmann’s playbook claiming he’ll make gas prices drop to as low as $2 a gallon if he’s elected.

The promises were flowing deep as Gingrich campaigned in Oklahoma hoping to capitalize on the latest GOTP fear and gloom tactic that gas prices will rise sharply this summer and Newton is pushing if he’s elected he’ll enact relaxed regulation on domestic oil production which will cause the gas to flow like water.

What the Newtser isn’t saying is that Presidents have extremely limited, if indeed any, power to affect prices of a global commodity like oil. Why does the most powerful man in the world have such limited influence? Because such costs depend largely on supply and demand, hence as the country’s economy improves, demand could rise, putting extra pressure on prices.

Gingrich’s been playing the oil exploration card hard as he tries to resurrect a dead campaign slamming the President for delaying a Canada-to-Texas oil pipeline even though the building of the pipeline wouldn’t affect one single penny of the short-term gas prices; Gingrich however is not one to play on reality, and claiming the President is hurting the oil and gas industry plays well in states like Oklahoma which depend heavily on those industries.

“With Gingrich policies, what we know is we will dramatically expand our independence in the world market, dramatically expand our capacity to produce energy without regard to our foreign potential enemies and in the process prices will clearly be a lot lower,” Gingrich said. “Now, I picked $2.50 as a stabilizing price for capital investment reasons. It could easily go down to $2.”

Newt waxed nostalgic, boasting that gas cost was as little as $1.13 per gallon when he led the House and that the national average was below $2 when President Obama was inaugurated.

Newt’s memory is a little off, the average cost of gas when he was speaker ranged from $1.41in 1995 to $1.34 in 1999, but if President Obama’s responsible for rising gas prices now, then wasn’t President Clinton responsible for lower prices then, and not the Speaker of the House? How exactly would the Speaker affect gas prices anyhow? What Newt failed to mention during his litany of Obama bashing was how the price of gas capped out at $4.21 near the end of the Bush/Cheney era in 2008.

This is good old fashioned conservative fear mongering plain and simple; if we re-elect the President gas prices will sky rocket, Iran will destroy Israel, the Constitution will be torn to shreds, dogs and cats will live together … blah, blah, blah. Truth is the price of gas has increased because the U.S. economy is doing better, raising demand for gas along with everything else, and that’s good – not bad; the only way someone like a (God forbid) President Gingrich delivers $2 per gallon gas is if the economy tanks again. Of course the average Tea Party voter doesn’t care about facts, they care about hating the President, and that’s what Newt’s counting on.

 
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Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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