With 38 days to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris continues leading against the twice impeached, convicted felon Donald Trump in most current polling. Harris and Trump faced off in the only Presidential Debate of the year on September 10, 2024, with Harris clearly having beaten her opponent in one of the most bizarre, televised debates in the history of American presidential politics, with Trump claiming Haitian immigrants are eating people’s pets in Ohio. Trump has posed for political photos and videos over the graves of fallen Marines in Arlington Cemetery, is awaiting sentencing, and faces three additional trials. Trump (78) continues rambling incoherent sentences whenever he speaks.
So, with 38 days until November 5th, where do we stand?
In national polling, the latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted between 21-23 September 2024 of 785 “likely voters,” has the election lining up like this:
Harris 50%
Trump 44%
According to the Morning Consult, conducted between 20-22 September 2024 of 11,057 “likely voters:”
Harris 50%
Trump 45%
In the CBS News Poll, conducted from 18-20 September 2024 of 3,121 “likely voters:”
Harris 52%
Trump 48%
Trump leads in only one recent national poll, the Rasmussen Reports Poll, conducted from 19-25 September 2024 of 1,820 “likely voters.”
Trump 48
Harris 46
Running election simulations (Courtesy of 270 to Win), Harris beats Trump 16 out of 25 times, or 64% of the time.
Harris 263/Trump 275
Harris 362/Trump 176
Harris 282/Trump 256
Harris 319/Trump 219
Harris 250/Trump 288
Harris 276/Trump 262
Harris 286/Trump 252
Harris 286/Trump 252
Harris 319/Trump 219
Harris 349/Trump 189
Harris 274/Trump 264
Harris 215/Trump 323
Harris 356/Trump 182
Harris 266/Trump 272
Harris 274/Trump 264
Harris 232/Trump 306
Harris 391/Trump 147
Harris 216/Trump 322
Harris 202/Trump 336
Harris 216/Trump 322
Harris 271/Trump 267
Harris 260/Trump 278
Harris 319/Trump 219
Harris 343/Trump 195
Harris 339/Trump 199
As far as the national race for the White House is concerned, according to recent state polling data available, if the election was today, odds are that Vice President Harris would be the 47th President of the United States, while Trump, who forever remains the only twice-impeached convicted former president in U.S. history, will go down as having lost two elections in a row.
The Liberty Tree 