With 24 days to go until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris continues leading against the twice impeached, convicted felon Donald Trump in most current polling. Trump continues to struggle in his speeches, clearly suffering from a mental decline, while his running mate continues to refuse to answer the question if Trump lost the 2020 election. Trump has posed for political photos and videos over the graves of fallen Marines in Arlington Cemetery, is awaiting sentencing, and faces three additional trials. Trump (78) continues rambling incoherent sentences whenever he speaks.
So, with just over three weeks until the November 5th election, where do we stand?
In national polling, the latest Reuters/Ipos Poll, conducted between 4-6 October 2024 of 969 “likely voters,” has the election lining up like this:
Harris 51%
Trump 49%
According to the Morning Consult, conducted between 4-6 October 2024 of 11,353 “likely voters:”
Harris 51%
Trump 46%
In the NY Times/Siena Poll, conducted from 29 September to 6 October 2024 of 3,385 “likely voters:”
Harris 49%
Trump 46%
Trump leads in only one recent national poll, the Rasmussen Reports Poll, conducted from 3 to 9 October 2024 among 2244 “likely voters.”
Trump 48
Harris 46
Running election simulations (Courtesy of 270 to Win), Trump beats Harris 12 out of 25 times, or 48% of the time, with two ties at 269 for each.
Harris 226/Trump 312
Harris 343/Trump 195
Harris 310/Trump 228
Harris 292/Trump 246
Harris 269/Trump 269
Harris 423/Trump 115
Harris 262/Trump 276
Harris 221/Trump 317
Harris 323/Trump 215
Harris 319/Trump 219
Harris 292/Trump 246
Harris 343/Trump 195
Harris 226/Trump 312
Harris 287/Trump 251
Harris 221/Trump 317
Harris 259/Trump 279
Harris 269/Trump 269
Harris 352/Trump 186
Harris 339/Trump 199
Harris 211/Trump 327
Harris 246/Trump 292
Harris 220/Trump 318
Harris 221/Trump 317
Harris 258/Trump 280
Harris 221/Trump 317 As far as the national race for the White House is concerned, according to recent state polling data available, if the election was today, odds are that Vice President Harris would be the 47th President of the United States, while Trump, who forever remains the only twice-impeached convicted former president in U.S. history, will go down as having lost two elections in a row.
The Liberty Tree 