Here’s the latest information on this week’s polling on the 2012 Presidential election.
First – from a Quinnipiac poll conducted from 7 – 11 July 2011 – let’s look at who would be the Republican/Tea Party (GOTP) nominee if it all ended today:
Romney 25; Bachmann 14; Palin 12; Perry 10; Cain 6; Paul 5; Gingrich 5; Pawlenty 3; Huntsman 1 and Santorum 1
As the “race” moves into July, Romney (aka Flopsy Mopsy) still holds on to the lead, while Bachmann (aka Krazy) has moved into second, followed by two people who haven’t announced they’re running, Palin (aka the Ice Queen), and Perry (Pres of the 2nd Republic of Texas). Bringing up the rear are Herman Cain (aka the Pizza Man, who has never met a Muslim he hasn’t disliked) followed by Paul, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Huntsman and Santorum.
How long are the guys in the back of this pack going to delude themselves? If you’re lower in the polls than a guy who preaches hate against Muslims what’s that say about your chances? But what about people who say they’ll vote for candidates who aren’t even in the race? Makes you wonder.
The first major GOTP contest will be the Iowa Caucus; if it was held today (according to Magellan Strategies (R): Krazy 29; Flopsy 16; and the rest of pack is in single digits so far back it doesn’t really matter. Yes, at this point the GOTP nomination appears to be turning into a two horse race.
So, how does the GOTP pack stack up against President Obama?
If the election was held today, according to Quinnipiac (which only asked about Bachmann, Romney and Palin) and previous polls for the others:
President Obama 47/Romney 41
President Obama 50/Bachmann 38
President Obama 53/Palin 34
President Obama 47/Pawlenty 33
President Obama 48/Cain 38
President Obama 52/Gingrich 39
President Obama 54/Paul 36
President Obama 52/Huntsman 34
The gap between the President and Flopsy Mopsy has widened to six points. But, once again, the odds of the far-right uber-religious Tea Party ever supporting a “Mormon” for president are highly unlikely.
The GOTP continues to struggle with finding a definite leader, and it is very likely Bachmann will pick up a lot of steam in Iowa and the south, and Romney will then struggle to win a divisive nomination, if he can win it at all.
To recap, if the GOTP nomination circus – and the general election – had both ended this week Flopsy would be the GOTP candidate, and he would still have lost to the President.
