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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 31 Oct 12 Edition

31 Oct

Happy Halloween – Trick-or-Treat – six days left until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s busy collecting food for his disaster photo op capitalizing on the devastation from “Frankenstorm” as only he can for political gain, while a real leader in the GOTP, GOV Chris Christie of New Jersey’s giving credit where credit’s due for the President’s and FEMA’s response to the storm.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12 has President Obama with a 46% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 44% favorability rating, so, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 49

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted 24 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 27 Oct 12:

President Obama 45/Romney 44

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 25 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 24 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

NPR poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 25 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 48

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 47.5/47.2

On this day four years ago, SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.9/43.9 and ultimately McCain lost to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.0/43.5.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 30 Oct 12

Obama 317/221
Obama 334/204
Obama 343/195
Obama 276/262
Obama 300/238
Obama 287/251
Obama 314/224
Obama 280/258

Romney 286/252
Romney 293/245

According to the simulations, President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based on national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 230/205.

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Posted by on October 31, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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