Concerning the ongoing GOTP nominating circus (Iowa Caucus Edition), a new Insider Advantage poll of likely voters conducted New Year’s Day has been released:
Romney holds on to a very narrow lead in Iowa as Santorum remains strong as surprising third; Romney 23; Paul 22; Santorum 18; Gingrich 16; Perry 10; Bachmann 6 and Huntsman 2
The interesting thought is, the last poll in Iowa pitting Romney against the President found Mittens the loser by 7 points; NBC News/Marist poll of registered voters conducted 27 – 29 Nov 11: President Obama 46/Romney 39. So, there’s lots of talk in Iowa from Romney and the other six political dwarves about how any of them can beat the President in 2012, but the polling state by state doesn’t come close to bearing out that prediction; in fact current polling on state levels show the President with 338 electoral votes (270 needed to win) and Romney with 200.
Granted a lot can happen in the next 11 months, but if Romney wins the GOTP nomination he’s going to have to run to the center (flip) to win the general election, and the Tea Party portion of the GOTP isn’t going to support that; if he suddenly becomes a moderate again (flop) we may see a third party candidacy from Bachmann, Perry or any number of conservatives.
When Mitt starts trying to be a moderate candidate (flip) look for countless ads demonstrating that he’s a political chameleon – changing colors as needed to win – with no real core values whatsoever; Romney is not electable; he’s not likeable and he flip-flops more than a freshly landed trout; if he’s the candidate – barring a great depression style economic collapse – he loses, and he loses big.