Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Louisiana Primary) 23 Mar 12 Edition

23 Mar

Willard Mitt Romney won Illinois and then was promptly called an Etch-A-Sketch by his Communication’s Director on national television; big win ruined by an idiotic comment by someone on his own team.

Speaking of his win, in Illinois’ Direct Election Primary (69 delegates Romney took out the competition like Sarah Palin with a bat on a baby seal winning 42 delegates; Santorum limped up the beach with 10 delegates and Gingrich and Paul were splayed with 0 delegates.

Next in the mill is Louisiana’s Proportional Primary – 24 mar 12 (46 delegates) where we’re likely to see the next Santorum “surge”: PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 22 Mar 12; Santorum 42; Romney 28; Gingrich 18 and Paul 8.

Wisconsin’s Winner Take All Primary – 3 Apr 12 (42 delegates) also likely to be a Santorum win: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 23 – 26 Feb 12; Santorum 43; Romney 27; Gingrich 10 and Paul 8.

The regular season records for the undaunted candidates: Romney 21; Santorum 9; Gingrich 2 and Paul 0.

The GOTP Delegate Count to date is: Romney 560; Santorum 246; Gingrich 141 and Paul 66.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 4,070,110

Santorum 2,758,186

Gingrich 2,182,346

Paul 1,068,291

Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 18 – 22 Mar 12: Romney 40; Santorum 26; Gingrich 14 and Paul 8 with 12% undecided.

So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 15 – 17 Mar 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 44

President Obama 48/Santorum 45

President Obama 50/Gingrich 42

President Obama 46/Paul 43

If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

If the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on current poll numbers:

1 Comment

Posted by on March 23, 2012 in 2012 Election


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One response to “Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Louisiana Primary) 23 Mar 12 Edition

  1. D

    March 26, 2012 at 10:08

    There was a poll a few weeks ago on Iowa becoming a Republican pickup. But President Obama won it in 2008 by more than 9 percentage points. South Carolina was in the column for John McCain by pretty much that amount. So, it wouldn’t make sense — Iowa flipping from Democratic to Republican; South Carolina flipping from Republican to Democratic.

    If there are states that switch colors, look to ones within five points (from 2008). But also note that Obama, if re-elected, would gain electoral votes. If he loses, the states that will flip will have come from the president’s 2008 column. If he wins re-election, I’d predict him to lose only one of the the following two: Indiana and North Carolina. Then he’d get pickups from nearly all the following: Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana.

    If Obama were to win South Carolina, he would lose no states he won in 2008. And what would bare out is an absolute landslide where Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana would come in along with Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. And then there would be Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Perhaps also Alaska. We’d be in for a 40-state (plus) landslide.

    Election pundits — pollsters too — want to make it sound like the presidential election is assured to be close. Well, the elections that have been close, these past couple decades, are ones in which a Republican barely wins (George W. Bush). But when they haven’t been close, it’s because the Democrat won by at least 5 and a half points (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama). That has to do much with the map, and the realignment that was a realignment of the two parties and a general identification from the electorate with how Republicans and Democrats operate.


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