Four more days and counting until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s going down with his pants streaming flame behind him, his latest Florida ads have him comparing the President to Castro.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?
The FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 28 – 30 Oct 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, so, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters from 27 – 31 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 46
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 45
FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 28 – 30 Oct 12:
President Obama 46/Romney 46
CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 47
National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 45
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted 24 – 28 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 28 Oct 12:
President Obama 46/Romney 51
IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 27 Oct 12:
President Obama 45/Romney 44
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 47.4/46.5
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 50.7/44.3 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 30 Oct 12
According to today’s simulations President Obama has a 100% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 0%.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 230/205.