Cue calliope music, please.
The 2016 Presidential Election season grinds forward – the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown car has graduated into the 2016 GOTP Clown Bus (probably a 1960’s era VW Bus) currently 16 occupants at last count – past, I am sure, critical mass – while the Democratic Party drags along, picking up a contender here and a contender there.
Where are things as we slide past the first mid-July point of the 2016 campaign season? Funny you should ask (clown honking horn in the background).
Nationally, in two polls the crown prince of GOTP comedy – “The Donald” – has taken the lead.
A Suffolk University/USA Today Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from July 9 to 12, 2015 has the GOTP Clown Bus lining up thus:
Donald Trump has jumped out to the lead at 17%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 8%
Ted Cruz, the Junior Senator for Ottawa 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and Mike Huckabee 4%
Chris Christie 3%
Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, and Carly Fiorina 1%
Lindsey Graham is bringing up the rear at 0%
Not to be outdone, a Fox News Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from July 13 to 15, 2015 has the GOTP Clown Bus lining up this way:
Trump leads at 18%
Walker moves up in the seating chart to 15%
Bush falls to third at 14%
Huckabee and Cruz 4%
Santorum and Kasich 2%
Perry and Fiorina 1%
Jindal and Graham are sweeping up after the parade at 0%
Trump is also currently in second place behind Walker in a Monmouth Poll in Iowa.
According to the rules of the first Republican/Tea Party 2016 Debate sponsored by Fox News and set for 6 August 2015, only candidates who place in the top 10 in an average of the five most recent national polls prior to the event will be on the stage.
The averages for the 16 contenders in the GOTP Happy Meal Box are as follows:
1 – Bush 15.5%
2 -Trump 15%
3 – Walker 9%
4 – Paul 6.3%
5 – Rubio 6%
6 – Carson 5.8%
7 – Huckabee 5.8%
8 – Cruz 5.5%
9 – Christie 2.8%
10 – Perry and or Santorum 2% (unclear how Fox will determine who gets the coveted slot)
The rest get to watch from a nearby pub crying into their beer
Graham 0.3% (Seriously? Placing lower than Fiorina has to be the worse possible feeling)
On the Democratic side, the Suffolk University/USA Today Poll has:
Hillary Clinton still way out in front with 59%
Bernie Sanders at 14%
Vice-President Joe Biden 8%
Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee 2%
The Fox News Poll shakes out as follows:
Vice President Biden 8%
O’Malley, Webb, and Chafee 1%
According to a Suffolk University/USA Today Poll, if the General Election was today:
Clinton 51/Trump 34
Clinton 49/Carson 36
Clinton 49/Huckabee 40
Clinton 48/Paul 38
Clinton 48/Walker 37
Clinton 46/Bush 42
Clinton 46/Rubio 40
The poll did not ask voters about a match-up between Clinton and Christie, Perry, Kasich, Fiorina, Santorum or Graham.
According to recent polling data available, if the election was today Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States, and the others would still be footnotes in history books.