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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 4 November 2016 Edition

04 Nov

We the People are down to four days left in the 2016 Presidential Election, the race appears to be tightening, and there are new email allegations, and of course the continuing revelations by more and more women that Donald Trump allegedly sexually assaulted them, coupled with ongoing stories of Trump’s ties to Russia.

decision 2016

Nationally, Clinton’s lead continues to hold.

Fox News – 1-3 November – Clinton 46/Trump 45
McClatchy/Marist – 1-3 November – Clinton 46/Trump 44
ABC News Tracking – 31 October – 3 November 2016 – Clinton 49/Trump 45
IBD/TIPP Tracking – 30 October – 3 November 2016 – Clinton 45/Trump 44
Reuters/Ipsos – 30 October – 3 November 2016 – Clinton 44/Trump 39
Economist/YouGov – 30 October – 1 November 2016 – Clinton 48/Trump 45
CBS News/NY Times – 28 October – 1 November 2016 – Clinton 47/Trump 44

Four years ago, this is how polling was running in the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney

Reuters/Ipsos – 27–31 October 2012 – Obama 47/Romney 46
ABC News/Washington Post – 27-31 October 2012 – Obama 49/Romney 48
RAND Poll – 30 October 2012 – Obama 49/Romney 45
Fox News – 28-30 October 2012 – Obama 46/Romney 46

State polling indicates a much clearer view of how the race is going as we head into single digit days remaining.

4-nov-2012-electoral-map

In 2012, the electoral map was looking much closer as the race closed on the finish line with President Obama preparing to defeat Mitt Romney

04-nov-16-electoral-map

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a continuing reminder,

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton continues to beat Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 295/Trump 243
Clinton 285/Trump 253
Clinton 297/Trump 241
Clinton 349/Trump 189
Clinton 317/Trump 221

Clinton 295/Trump 243
Clinton 306/Trump 232
Clinton 287/Trump 251
Trump 285/Clinton 253
Clinton 287/Trump 251

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States.

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