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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 5 November 2016 Edition

05 Nov

We the People are down to three days left in the 2016 Presidential Election; Trump seems in some respects to be toning down his hate filled rhetoric, hoping everyone forgets the person he really is, and Hillary keeps hoping people do not forget his sexual assaults and upcoming rape case.

decision 2016

Nationally, Clinton’s thin lead continues to hold.

Fox News – 1-3 Nov – Clinton 46/Trump 45
McClatchy/Marist – 1-3 Nov – Clinton 46/Trump 44
IBD/TIPP Tracking – 30 Oct – 3 Nov 2016 – Clinton 45/Trump 44
Reuters/Ipsos – 30 Oct – 4 Nov 2016 – Clinton 44/Trump 40
ABC/Wash Post Tracking – 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2016 – Clinton 49/Trump 45
Economist/YouGov – 30 Oct – 1 Nov 2016 – Clinton 48/Trump 45
CBS News/NY Times – 28 Oct – 1 Nov 2016 – Clinton 47/Trump 44

Four years ago, this is how polling was running in the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney

CNN/Opinion Research – 2-4 Nov 2012 – Obama 49/Romney 49
Gallup – 1-4 Nov 2012 – Obama 48/Romney 49
Pew Research – 31 October – 3 Nov 2012 – Obama 50/Romney 47
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl. – 1-3 Nov 2012 – Obama 48/Romney 47
Public Policy Polling – 1-3 Nov 2012 – Obama 50/Romney 47
ABC News/Washington Post – 29 Oct – 2 Nov 2012 – Obama 49/Romney 48

5-nov-2012-electoral-map

In 2012, the electoral map was looking much closer as the race closed on the finish line with President Obama preparing to defeat Mitt Romney

State polling indicates a much clearer view of how the race is going as we head into the last three days of the race.

05-nov-16-electoral-map

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a continuing reminder,

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton continues to beat Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 296/Trump 242
Trump 283/Clinton 255
Clinton 298/Trump 240
Clinton 311/Trump 227
Clinton 323/Trump 215

Clinton 345/Trump 193
Clinton 309/Trump 229
Clinton 270/Trump 268
Clinton 336/Trump 202
Clinton 333/Trump 205

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States.

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Posted by on November 5, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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