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Monthly Archives: September 2012

Private Sector is Doing Fine – 21 Sep 12 Edition

“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama

“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney

Since the above exchange between the President and Willard the following indicators the private sector is indeed “doing fine”:

Fiscal First Quarter reported earnings:

FedEx posted $10.79 billion

In the 2nd Quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector:

Yahoo reported $1.08 billion
Facebook reported $1.2 billion
EBay reported $3.4 billion
Macy’s reported $6.12 billion
Travelers reported $6.36 billion
McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion
Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion
Best Buy reported $10.55 billion
Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion
Google reported $12.21 billion
United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion
Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion
Intel reported $13.5 billion
Dell reported $14.5 billion
Pfizer reported $15.1 billion
Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion
Microsoft reported $18.06 billion
Citigroup reported $18.4 billion
Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion
Bank of America reported $22.2 billion
IBM reported $25.8 billion
Verizon reported $28.6 billion
AT&T reported $31.6 billion

Following are third quarter earnings:

Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion

Following are fourth quarter earnings:

News Corp. reported $8.4 billion
Cisco reported $11.7 billion

The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.

The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.

The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.

The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.

Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.

U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.

U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.

Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.

Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.

The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.

The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.

Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.

The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.

The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.

A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.

Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.

A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.

Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13,579.47 on 21 Sep 12

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 365,000 from an upwardly revised 377,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 370,000 from an initially reported 374,000.

Who’s out of touch Mitt?

 
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Posted by on September 21, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on September 21, 2012 in Humor

 

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Posted by on September 21, 2012 in Humor

 

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Posted by on September 20, 2012 in Humor

 

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Senate Republicans block veterans’ jobs bill?

As only the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) members of the U.S. Senate could do, they blocked legislation establishing a $1 billion jobs program putting veterans back to work tending to the country’s federal lands and bolstering local police and fire departments claiming the spending authorized in the bill violated limits that Congress agreed to last year. Democrats fell two votes shy of the 60-vote majority needed to waive the objection, forcing the legislation back to committee.

The legislation was reportedly based after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps used during the Great Depression to put people to work planting trees, building parks and constructing dams. Democrats said the latest monthly jobs report, showing a nearly 11 percent unemployment rate for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan, merited action from Congress.

“(With) a need so great as unemployed veterans, this is not the time to draw a technical line on the budget,” said Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.

Republicans said the effort to help veterans was noble, but the bill was flawed nevertheless.

Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma said the federal government already has six job-training programs for veterans and there is no way to know how well they are working. He argued making progress on the country’s debt was the best way to help veterans in the long-term, meaning somewhere in a mystical future when Republicans have magically regained the White House – so, obviously somewhere outside of four years.

“We ought to do nothing now that makes the problem worse for our kids and grandkids,” Coburn said.

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., said much would depend upon the number of applicants. She noted that more than 720,000 veterans are unemployed across the nation, including 220,000 veterans who have served since Sept. 11. She said putting veterans back to work was the cost of war.

“Instead of meeting us halfway, we have been met with resistance. Instead of saying yes to the nearly 1 million unemployed veterans, it seems some on the other side have spent the last week and a half seeking any way to say no,” Murray said.

Reportedly, a handful of Republicans joined with Democrats in voting to waive the objection to the bill: Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Dean Heller of Nevada, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Maine’s Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.

“After everything our veterans have done for us, the least we can do is make sure they are afforded every opportunity to thrive here at home,” Heller said.

And the senator is right, unfortunately Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed to do nothing that might help re-elect the president, so screw the veterans. This program was 100% paid for and the GOTP senators ignored that, and ignored our nation’s veterans (once again). Thanks for defending us, so sorry you’re unemployed, pick yourselves up and stop being part of the 47% Romney was talking about.

 
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Posted by on September 20, 2012 in 2012 Election, Veteran's

 

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Posted by on September 19, 2012 in Humor

 

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Posted by on September 18, 2012 in Humor

 

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Posted by on September 18, 2012 in Humor

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 18 Sep 12 Edition

Seven (7) weeks – 49 days – to go and counting until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s managed to successfully change the campaign from the economy to foreign policy, admittedly that wasn’t what he meant to do, but he’s done it by chiming in (rather badly) on the unrest throughout the Middle East, once again proving he’s not in any way ready for the big time.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 13 – 16 Sep 12, showed the President with a 46% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 41%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 12 – 16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

That’s three more than the 47% Romney insulted in his speech in Florida.

The most recent above mentioned Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13-16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

The most recent Gallup poll of registered voters conducted 8 – 15 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 8 – 12 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

The most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 11 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

The most recent Esquire/Yahoo! News poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 10 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 46

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/45; SEN McCain would never lead in the polls again and SEN Obama went on to defeat him 52/44.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 18 Sep 12

Obama 313/225
Obama 298/240
Obama 312/226
Obama 300/238
Obama 316/222
Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 299/239
Obama 310/228
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 52-48; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 16 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House 226/209.

 
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Posted by on September 18, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Posted by on September 17, 2012 in Humor

 

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