Today’s the day…
With votes being cast how are the candidates faring in the polls as it all comes to a close?
The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 5 Nov 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 49
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 3 – 5 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 49
Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 49
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12
President Obama 48/Romney 47
Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 48
Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 46
RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 45
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.6/47.4
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 6 Nov 12
According to today’s simulations President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.