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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 2 Oct 12 Edition

02 Oct

Five (5) weeks – 35 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s trying to overcome his latest misstep, wondering aloud why windows can’t be rolled down on airplanes? Some suggest he was “only joking”; doesn’t matter, it was an obtuse thing to say, and it’s only added to the image that he’s not as bright as people think he is and that he’s – as Jon Stewart put it – “like Charlie from Flowers for Algernon, and the serum is wearing off”. Topping this off was Ann Romney’s startling declaration that her greatest concern for her husband was his “mental well-being”; not what you need your wife saying about you, but especially not what you need your wife saying about you when you’re running for the presidency.

So, there’s one day to the first debate and a plethora of pundits are claiming Romney can turn it all around tomorrow tonight because he’s had more than 20 debates this fall to help him prepare and he’s ready to go; yeah OK, but he’s not debating the misfits from the GOTP primaries, he’s debating the President f the United States, and from what Willard’s demonstrated thus far, I’d say the odds are nowhere near to being in his favor.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12, showed the President with a 50% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. For the second straight week the President’s favorables are above 50% while Romney’s continues to be the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history with unfavorables of 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 23-29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.

So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 3 Oct 12

Obama 318/220
Obama 308/230
Obama 297/241
Obama 286/252
Obama 297/241

Obama 316/222
Obama 303/235
Romney 272/266
Obama 347/191
Obama 281/257

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney nine times and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54-46; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 228/207.

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2 Comments

Posted by on October 2, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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2 responses to “Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 2 Oct 12 Edition

  1. Randi Garske

    October 2, 2012 at 12:32

    Interesting that you don’t post Rasmussen’s poll information which has Romney/Obama running even.

     
  2. Phil Bundy

    October 2, 2012 at 14:59

    Not really, as I explain in the post, Rasmussen along with the Washington Times are not reliable polling sources as they are skewed heavily to the right. Want Rasmussen watch FOX or listen to Hannity, want honest numbers look here or many other blogs.

     

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