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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 23 Oct 12 Edition

23 Oct

We’re down to a scant two (2) weeks – 14 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s reeling from the smack down he took in New York coupled with the thumping he received in Florida last night, including the fact we’re all out of horses and bayonets; can he recover from such a pummeling by the President of the United States? Sure he can because “everyone loves Mitt” – said nobody ever.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The  ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12 has the President with a 52% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 50%. So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 17 – 22 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 45

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 22 Oct 12:

Romney 51/President Obama 46

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of registered voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12:

Romney 48/President Obama 45

CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 20 Oct 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 17 – 20 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

WashTimes/JZ Analytics* poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 20 Oct 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 50.1/42.6 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 318/220:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 23 Oct 12.

Obama 327/211
Obama 316/222
Obama 284/254
Obama 303/235
Obama 299/239

Romney 292/246
Romney 282/256
Romney 279/259
Romney 298/240
Romney 286/252

Of 10 simulations President Obama and Romney split even at five apiece.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 13 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 230/205.

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4 Comments

Posted by on October 23, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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4 responses to “Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 23 Oct 12 Edition

  1. Harold

    October 23, 2012 at 17:38

    You lost me with your polemics, but if you are trying to figure out who will win the presidency, it’s Romney, by about 3 percentage points in the popular vote and by 29 – 32 electoral votes.

     
  2. William

    October 23, 2012 at 18:19

    Rasmussen was the most accurate poll in the 2008 election ranking number 1 out of the top 30 polls for accuracy. Also, you have NC for Obama, are you serious?

     
  3. Dan Johnson

    October 23, 2012 at 20:55

    This entire article is joke-filled. Nobody is taking you seriously, nor should they.

     
  4. Longball

    October 23, 2012 at 22:52

    Harold, and William, it never hurts to hold out hope, stranger things have happened, but don’t get overly hopeful, and that appears to me exactly what you’re doing. Fact is- Obama only needs to hold the existing states he holds with leads of +2.0 or more percentage points, and capture Ohio, and any combination of two out of three of these states (Nev., N.M., CO.), and it matters little what Romney does after that, up to and including the popular vote. Sorry to burst your bubbles but those are the facts.

     

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