Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 9 Oct 12 Edition

09 Oct

Just four (4) weeks – 28 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney seems to have found a slight bounce from his “performance” during the Denver Presidential Debate where there was lots of energy but very little substance or facts (27 lies in 38 minutes worth). Of course conservative pundits galore have been exalting how this was the big turnaround, the moment when Mitt saved his candidacy – and conservative pollsters are of course showing a huge bounce, while other polling groups show next to nothing, or nothing; this “bounce” is however a façade and it won’t hold up. Romney’s campaign’s a walking, talking straw man looking for a lit torch; lots of words, no substance and highly combustible.

Two days to the vice-presidential debate and it’s sure to be a knock down affair as the running mates are turned loose on each other; who will win? Ryan and Biden both are exceptional, passionate speakers; The Vice President’s prone to putting his foot in his mouth while his opponent – it appears – couldn’t find the truth with both hands and a flash light. Look for the Vice-President to come out swinging and to knock Ryan around.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

Post debate favorability ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12, showed the President with a 55% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 47%. Whatever “bounce” Romney may have garnered from his “performance” in Denver, it didn’t really help is favorability – no big surprise; when you act like a spoiled bully you’re going to be perceived as a spoiled bully.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent Gallup Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 8 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 49

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 7 Oct 12 had different numbers:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

Quite a turnaround in a single day of polling, and begs the question, “What’s up at Gallup”?

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12:

President Obama 45/Romney 49

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 4 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.1/43.5; after mediocre debate performances and a disastrous VP pick, SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls, Willard Mitt Romney defeats President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 9 Oct 12

Obama 328/210
Obama 341/197
Obama 346/192
Obama 293/245
Obama 293/245

Obama 288/250
Obama 332/206
Romney 271/267
Romney 280/258
Obama 337/201

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney eight times and usually by very comfortable margins; the two Romney wins are very marginal with absolutely no room for error.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 56-44; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 14 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 229/206.


Posted by on October 9, 2012 in 2012 Election


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2 responses to “Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 9 Oct 12 Edition

  1. don konipol

    October 10, 2012 at 00:09

    Your bias makes it impossible for you to see reality. The poll numbers speak for themselves, Romney has solidified his support and is increasingly seen as a viable alternative to Obama. BTW, a little research on your part would have provided an answer to your question of “what’s up at Gallop?”. Gallup just switched from registered voters to a likely voter screen, putting them on equal footing with all the other polls.

    Your breakdown of electoral votes are somewhat based on older pre debate state polls. Additionally, state polls have historically lagged national polls during changes in voter preference. When only post debate polls are included Romney wins Florida, Virginia and Colorado for an additional 51 electoral votes. The chances of a candidate winning by more than 1.0% of the popular vote and losing the electoral college are almost non existent.

  2. Phil Bundy

    October 10, 2012 at 11:06

    The one – and only – bounce in poll numbers hardly classifies as “solidified his support” …


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