Three (3) weeks – 21 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney will debate President Obama in round three of the presidential/vice presidential debates; round one went to Romney, and round two (VP debate) went to Vice President Biden, but who will win round three? Romney has two choices, continue the 180 charade (no doubt the President will be prepared for that) or return to uber-right wing Mitt (what the President was prepared for before Denver). It may prove he should’ve pulled the 180 switch tonight, meaning he shot his wad too soon – which does not have its origin in sexual connotations. The real question is which President Obama will show up; the election is his to lose not Romney’s to win. Tonight’s debate is in a town hall format, which should favor the President, one thing’s for sure, the President can’t allow the challenger to set the tone as he did in Denver.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?
The Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 11 Oct 12 has the President with a 53% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 51%. So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 10 – 13 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 46
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 8 – 14 Oct 12 had different numbers:
President Obama 47/Romney 49
IBD/TIPP Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 9 – 14 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of registered voters conducted from 7 – 11 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of registered voters conducted from 8 – 10 Oct 12:
President Obama 46/Romney 47
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12:
President Obama 45/Romney 49
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.5/42.7 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235.
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 16 Oct 12
Obama 305/233
Obama 295/243
Obama 317/221
Obama 279/259
Obama 321/217
Obama 294/244
Obama 287/251
Romney 283/255
Romney 299/239
Romney 280/258
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
As to the status of the United States Congress, according to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54-46; while Democrats will be picking up at least 13 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 229/206.
The Liberty Tree 