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Romney claims President won with ‘Gifts’?

According to the Associated Press (AP), Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s telling top donors President Obama was re-elected because of the “gifts” he’d given to Blacks, Hispanics and young voters, and because of the painting him as anti-immigrant.

“The president’s campaign, if you will, focused on giving targeted groups a big gift,” Romney said in a special call to “big” donors this week. “He made a big effort on small things.”

Of course during his call he didn’t bring up any of his own screw ups, like his infamous “47 percent” remark, his lack of support for the auto bailout, his call for illegal immigrants to “self-deport,” or his flip-flopping virtually on every single position.

Among the so-called “gifts” Willard maintains the President had given out in order to win were free health care “in perpetuity,” which Romney alleged was highly motivational to Black and Hispanic voters as well as for voters making $25,000 to $35,000 a year.

Willard also claimed the promise of “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants –”the so-called DREAM Act kids” – helped send Hispanics to the polls for Obama.

Then were the “young voters”, which Romney stated, were motivated by the administration’s plan for partial forgiveness of college loan interest and being able to remain on their parents’ health insurance plans. And of course there were the young women who had the additional incentive to vote for the President because of “free contraception coverage” under the president’s health care plan.

So, according to Willard Mitt Romney, he lost because more than 50% of voters were bought off, not because he sucked, his campaign sucked or because the GOTP’s policies really suck. Not only was Mitt a sad candidate, he’s even a sadder loser.

 
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Posted by on November 15, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 5 Nov 12 Edition

IT’S Finally here! Election Day Eve! And now we can all put out our stockings and wait for … oh, wait a minute…

So, with one day to go, how do the candidates stand up against each other?

The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 49

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 49

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct – 1 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 28 – 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 46/Romney 46

CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 47

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.5/47.3

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 4 Nov 12

Obama 338/200
Obama 284/254
Obama 326/212
Obama 273/265
Obama 278/260
Obama 313/225
Obama 288/250
Obama 305/233
Obama 323/215

Romney 284/254

According to today’s simulations President Obama has a 90% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 10%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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President Obama challenges Willard Mitt Romney on Tax Returns?

According to the Associated Press (AP) President Obama’s keeping the pressure on Republican Tea Party (GOTP) rival Willard Mitt Romney on two fronts, launching a new TV ad defending his record on Medicare while continuing to challenge Willard to release at least five years of his tax returns.

Jim Messina, the President’s campaign manager, made the tax-disclosure offer to Willard’s top dog, Matt Rhoades saying he was taking the step because Romney “apparently fears the more he offers, the more our campaign will demand that he provide.”Romney’s wife, Ann, has repeatedly stated that concern in interviews, arguing that the more the couple releases, the more questions are asked, and so from her point of view the logical thing is to hide everything and let everyone’s imaginations run wild?

Willard has released part of his 2010 taxes – they’re incomplete – he’s pledged to release his 2011 returns, sometime later, and Messina’s offer said the President wants Romney to provide three more years of returns, and that’s all; so in total they’re asking for five years of returns.

While Democratic Senate Majority Leader, and fellow Latter-day Saint, Harry Reid has raised the question of whether there are years when Willard paid no taxes. Willard continues to mew he’s has paid at least 13 percent of his income in federal taxes every year for the past decade; that’s right folks a whole 13%, but of course we’ll have to trust him on this and simply take his word.

“I did go back and look at my taxes and over the past 10 years I never paid less than 13 percent,” Willard’s told reporters. “I think the most recent year is 13.6 or something like that. So I paid taxes every single year.”

And we have to believe him because there’s no proof being offered except what Mitt claims; as has always been the case, Willard can stop this story by simply releasing his taxes. To not do so implies there’s something to hide, something so potentially disastrous to his campaign he’d rather spend weeks if not the entire campaign dealing with this one issue, which in the long run will hurt him amongst the moderate voters, the ones he has to swing his way in order to win.

 
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Posted by on August 17, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Romney says, ‘I Have Paid Taxes Every Year; a Lot of Taxes.’

According to news reports, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presumptive presidential wannabe Willard Mitt Romney is insisting he’s paid taxes every year and is challenging Democratic Senate Majority Leader (and fellow Latter-day Saint) Harry Reid “to put up or shut up” with his accusations he hasn’t.

“Let me also say categorically: I have paid taxes every year. A lot of taxes. A lot of taxes,” Willard mewed to reporters in Nevada.

“Harry Reid really has to put up or shut up, alright? So Harry, who are your sources?” Romney whined, referring to the Senator’s claim a Bain Capital investor told him Willard hadn’t paid taxes in 10 years.

As the GOTP candidate has been continually pressured to release his tax records, and was asked yet again why he wouldn’t just release them rather than continue engaging in a back-and-forth with Senator Reid, Willard deflected saying people should visit his website to see his financial disclosure statements dating back to 2002 and his 2010 tax return.

“Go on the website, you’ll be surprised to see the amazing amount of data that’s associated with our campaign’s disclosure,” he said.

Yeah, about that; I went to the “website” and was surprised to see nothing at all regarding Willard’s tax records or financial disclosure, at least not easily found. Perhaps he was referring to his offshore website, the one in the Caymans?

Despite Romney’s whining about the unfair amount of taxes he’s allegedly paid, Senator Reid said it’s time for Willard to stop “insulting” the American public by refusing to release his tax returns.

“It’s hard to say which is more insulting to Americans’ intelligence, Mitt Romney’s tax plan or his refusal to show the American people what’s in his tax returns,” Reid said in a statement. “Romney seems to think he’s above the basic level of transparency and openness that every presidential candidate has lived up to since his father set the standard in 1968.”

“In short, Romney’s message to Nevadans is this: He won’t release his taxes, but he wants to raise yours.”

He accused Romney of being “the most secretive presidential candidate since Richard Nixon” and pointed out that even nominees overseen by the Senate Finance Committee have to produce more tax returns that Romney is willing to release.

“Forget about president — Mitt Romney couldn’t get confirmed as a cabinet secretary,” Reid said. “The contents of the one year of returns he has released would probably be enough to tank his nomination anyway: secret overseas bank accounts in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, tax avoidance tricks and a lower tax rate than middle-class families pay.”

Whatever Senator Reid’s reasons for suddenly going after Romney on this issue it’s a political strategy which is a win/win for Democrats and a lose/lose more for Romney. If Romney continues to refuse to release his taxes the furor won’t go away and it won’t lessen in intensity. This began back during the GOTP primaries when his opponents – fellow conservatives – went after him on his tax records.

To not release makes him look elitist, out of touch and possibly hiding something very messy. To release could affect his campaign by some embarrassing fact like he paid less in taxes than average Americans. We already know that, its old news. Politically this is not a smart play. Romney should remember Nixon’s famous “Checker’s Speech”; he should release the records declare what’s in them, especially if there’s anything that could draw fire, and move on. Get the splinter removed before it festers and becomes the equivalent of political blood poisoning. Or, just keep arguing about how “it’s not required by law”, and “I have a right to privacy” blaah, blaah, blaah …

 
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Posted by on August 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Mathematically Improbable for Romney to win nomination

Being somewhat of a politics-geek I’ve been thinking why the Romney camp’s pushing the idea he’s the sole inevitable winner of the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating process; the only answer I can come up with is because he’s nothing of the kind and they’re trying to weaken his opponent’s base. They’ve come to understand the longer Rick Santorum and Newton Leroy Gingrich hang on the fewer delegates their guy wins.

If you run the numbers – specifically the number of delegates yet to be won – it’s abundantly clear Romney’s the only one who can still win the nomination outright prior to the GOTP convention 27 – 30 Aug 12; but it’s not very clear at all if he’ll be able to do so, in fact the odds are fast becoming anything but in his favor. There are 878 delegates left to be picked up by the candidates and 1,144 needed for victory; Romney’s picked up 455 delegates to date and still needs to pick up 691 delegates to win, or roughly 80% of all the remaining delegates. If you eliminate the “winner take all” primaries won so far he’s averaging about 33% of delegates, and that’s not going to get it done; even if he wins all the “winner take all” primaries – which he may, but is doubtful – if Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich remain in the race it doesn’t look probable for Romney, and thus a brokered convention is looming more and more on the horizon.

There are 126 so-called “super delegates” available at the GOTP Convention, made up of state chairs and additional RNC types, but they’re not necessarily going all to Romney, especially considering his “popularity” within the party; even if we were to count all the super delegates to Mitt, he only takes the nomination at that point by a mere 50 or so delegates. Santorum or Gingrich could very much act as spoilers sending this into a brokered convention. At any rate, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Mitt’s the nominee. Not just yet.

Of course the only possible way for Santorum to win now is in a brokered convention and that’s what he’s aiming at, he knows he can’t win any other way; Newt’s reason for hanging on is pure and simple, he hates Romney’s guts for the character attacks following the South Carolina primary; so at this point it’s all about keeping Romney from winning. Ron Paul’s still hanging in there but he’s pretty much inconsequential, basically just siphoning off delegates here and there. Romney’s basically in a begging position where he needs the others to fall out.

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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