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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 4 Nov 12 Edition

04 Nov

Just two days until the November election.

So, how do the candidates stand up against each other?

The ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 30 Oct – 2 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 54% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 53% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct – 1 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 28 – 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 46/Romney 46

CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 47

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.4/46.6

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 4 Nov 12

Obama 296/242
Obama 313/225
Obama 321/217
Obama 347/191
Obama 300/238
Obama 280/258
Obama 281/257
Obama 306/232

Romney 281/257
Romney 272/266

According to today’s simulations President Obama has a 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 230/205.

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Posted by on November 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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