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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 30 Oct 12 Edition

30 Oct

Just seven short days to go until the November election and while the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is busy dealing with Hurricane Sandy – aka “Frankenstorm”, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s doubling down on his lies and misinformation, attempting to persuade voters in Ohio with new ads claiming it was he who saved the auto industry, and that President Obama’s shipping Jeep jobs to China. If you’ve ever wondered how far someone would go to win the presidency you now have a very real text book example in Romney; he’s willing to say anything, do anything in order to get elected.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The  NPR poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 25 Oct 12 has the President and Romney tied with a 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 28 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 49

Meanwhile in the Gallup – anomaly – Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

Romney 51/President Obama 46

IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 27 Oct 12:

President Obama 45/Romney 44

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 25 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls – counting the anomalous Gallup Poll – it appears Willard Mitt Romney edges out the President Obama in the general election 47.8/47.2; however – excluding the anomalous Gallup Poll – the opposite is found with the President edging out Romney 47.5/47.

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.9/43.9 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 30 Oct 12

Obama 303/235
Obama 290/248
Obama 272/266
Obama 286/252
Obama 288/250
Obama 303/235
Obama 290/248
Obama 307/231

Romney 288/250
Romney 276/262

According to the simulations President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 13 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 234/201.

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Posted by on October 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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