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Tag Archives: 2012 Florida Primary

Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Kansas Caucus) 9 Mar 12 Edition

Super Tuesday has come and gone, that magic time every four years when cat fights turn to dog fights, when the dust is thick and heavy and when it clears there’s usually a clear indicator of who will win their party’s nomination – usually. But this year it’s different, this year we have the hybrid Republican Tea Party (GOTP) types running to the polls to decide for which of the four horsemen of the GOPocalypse they hope will win the presidential nomination. So, how’d they score?

Romney won Alaska’s Proportional Caucus (8 delegates), Idaho’s Non-Binding Caucus (32 delegates), Massachusetts’s Proportional Primary (38 delegates) and Ohio’s Proportional Primary (35 delegates), Vermont’s Hybrid Primary (9 delegates) and Virginia’s Hybrid Primary (43 delegates); additional delegates won = 43; total delegates won = 208

Santorum won North Dakota’s Non-Binding Caucus (11 delegates), Oklahoma’s Proportional Primary (14 delegates) and Tennessee’s Proportional Primary (25 delegates); additional delegates won = 34; total delegates won = 84

Gingrich won Georgia’s Proportional Primary (42 delegates); additional delegates won = 26; total delegates won = 68

Paul won = 21 delegates

So, what’s coming up next on the candidate’s radar?

10 Mar 12 we’ve got the Northern Marianas’ Non-Binding Caucus with 9 delegates; Virgin Islands’ Non-Binding Caucus with 9 delegates and Guam’s Non-Binding Caucus also with 9 delegates, and there’s no polling data for any of these contests.

Kansas’ Hybrid Primary – 10 Mar 12 (40 delegates): no polling data available

Alabama’s Proportional Primary – 13 Mar 12 (50 delegates): Ala. Education Assoc. poll of likely voters conducted 1 – 6 Mar 12; Romney 31; Santorum 22; Gingrich 21 and Paul 7.

American Samoa’s Proportional Caucus – 13 mar 12 (9 delegates): no polling data available

Hawaii’s Proportional Caucus with 20 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 16 Oct 11; Romney 24; Gingrich 8; Paul 4 and Santorum 1.

Mississippi’s Proportional Primary with 52 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 6 Nov 11; Gingrich 28; Romney 12; Paul 4 and Santorum 1.

Missouri’s Non-Binding Caucus – 17 Mar 12 (52 delegates): PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12; Gingrich 30; Santorum 28; Romney 24 and Paul 11.

Puerto Rico’s Winner Take All Primary – 18 Mar 12 (23 delegates): no polling data available

Illinois’ Direct Election Primary – 20 Mar 12 (69 delegates): The Simon Poll/SIU poll of registered voters conducted 11 – 16 Oct 12; Romney 21; Gingrich 8; Paul 7 and Santorum 2.

Louisiana’s Proportional Primary – 24 mar 12 (46 delegates): Clarus Research poll of likely voters conducted 20 – 22 Nov 12; Gingrich 31; Romney 23; Paul 6 and Santorum 0.

The regular season records for the dauntless candidates: Romney 7; Santorum 3; Gingrich 1 and Paul 0 with Maine still unbelievably yet to be determined.

The GOTP Delegate Count to date is: Romney 404; Santorum 165; Gingrich 105 and Paul 61.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 3,194,834

Gingrich 989,187

Santorum 956,245

Paul 479,835

Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 3 – 7 Mar 12: Romney 37; Santorum 23; Gingrich 12 and Paul 11 with 17% undecided.

So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 5 – 7 Mar 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 44

President Obama 50/Santorum 42

If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mittens Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 30 Jan 12 (pre-Florida Primary) Edition

After spinning wildly down the track following the South Carolina Primary, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating circus, specifically the GOTP clown car, appears to be spinning back into Mitten’s favor; but can Romney pull out the nomination in the long run? Newton’s claiming he’s in it all the way to the convention – time will tell.

The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Gingrich 1, Santorum 1, Romney 1 and Paul 0; never have three separate candidates won the first three GOTP caucuses/primaries – NEVER; clearly the party doesn’t want Mitt, but can’t decide who it wants instead of him. Do they go with the crazy uncle in the attic, the over-the-top gay bashing brother, or the adulterer?

Concerning Florida’s Primary, a new Insider Advantage poll of likely voters conducted 29 Jan 12 has been released and the current poll results are: Romney 36; Gingrich 31; Paul 13 and Santorum 11 with 9% undecided.

There’s nothing new no new polls for the upcoming Nevada Caucus (4 Feb 12) where Romney led in the last Las Vegas Review-Journal poll of registered voters conducted 12 – 20 Dec 11: Romney 33; Gingrich 29; Paul 13 and Santorum 3 with 22% undecided.

The Maine Caucus’ (4 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Oct 11: Romney 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 5 and Santorum 2 with 51% undecided.

Colorado Caucus (7 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 1 – 4 Dec 11: Gingrich 37; Romney 18; Paul 6 and Santorum 4 with 38% undecided.

Minnesota Caucus (7 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 22 Jan 12: Gingrich 36; Romney 18; Santorum 17 and Paul 13 with 16% undecided.

Michigan Primary (28 Feb 12) last EPIC-MRA poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 25 Jan 12: Romney 31; Gingrich 26; Paul 14 and Santorum 10 with 19% undecided.

Arizona Primary (28 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 17 – 20 Nov 11: Gingrich 28; Romney 23; Paul 8 and Santorum 3 with 38% undecided.

Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)

Georgia Primary Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters conducted 12 – 14 Dec 11: Gingrich 43; Romney 21; Paul 4 and Santorum 1 with 31% undecided.

Ohio Primary Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 16 Jan 12: Romney 27; Santorum 18; Gingrich 17 and Paul 10 with 28% undecided.

Virginia Primary (where only Romney is on the ballot – can you spell FIX?) Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 19 Dec 11: Gingrich 30; Romney 25; Paul 9 and Santorum 3 with 33% undecided.

Oklahoma Primary Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 17 Nov – 16 Dec 11: Gingrich 33; Romney 14; Paul 4 and Santorum 2 with 47% undecided.

Massachusetts Primary PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 18 Sep 11: Romney 50; Gingrich and Paul 5 and Santorum 1 with 44% undecided

Vermont Primary PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided

The Current GOTP Delegate Count is: Gingrich 23; Romney 13; Santorum 6 and Paul 3.

Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 25 – 29 Jan 12: Gingrich 28; Romney 27; Santorum 16 and Paul 13 with 16% undecided.

So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 41

President Obama 52/Gingrich 35

A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted 27 – 28 Jan 12:

President Obama 51/Santorum 43

President Obama 49/Paul 46

As crazy as it looks, clearly, on the electability scale Paul is the candidate who comes closest to actually being able to beat the President.That being said, if the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Newton Leroy Gingrich would barely be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

Speaking of the general election; the latest Electoral College figures are below, based on current available state polling, and once again, if the general election was held today these would be the results:

 
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Posted by on January 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 23 Jan 12 (post-South Carolina Primary) Edition

Never has the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating circus, specifically the GOTP clown car, spun so wildly down Nomination Drive as it did on Saturday, 21 Jan 12 in South Carolina when Newton Leroy Gingrich pummeled Willard Mittens Romney in a decisive primary victory 40 to 27 placing Mitten’s assured coronation as the GOTP nominee in serious danger. No GOTP primary candidate has ever won the party’s nomination without winning South Carolina – NONE repeat NONE have ever pulled that off.

The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Gingrich 1, Santorum 1, Romney 1 and Paul 0; never have three separate candidates won the first three GOTP caucuses/primaries – NEVER; clearly the party doesn’t want Mitt, but can’t decide who it wants instead of him. Do they go with the crazy uncle in the attic, the over-the-top gay bashing brother, or the adulterer?

So, in the aftermath of Newton’s victory where have things settled poll wise? A new Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 18 – 22 Jan 12 has been released and the current poll results are: Willard Mittens Romney 29; Newton Leroy Gingrich 28; Ronny Paul 13 and Ricky Santorum 11

Things have turned drastically against Romney in current Florida polling where the new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted on 22 Jan 12 now has Gingrich 41; Romney 32; Santorum 11; and Paul 8

There are no new polls for the upcoming Nevada Caucus where Romney led in the last Las Vegas Review-Journal poll: Romney 35; Gingrich 26; Paul 5; Perry 4; Huntsman and Santorum 1, but depending on Florida things may turn here as well.

For the Maine Caucus there haven’t been any new polls conducted since October; Maine’s caucus is the same day as Nevada, 4 Feb 12.

Concerning how the GOTP candidates currently stack up against the President, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 20 – 22 Jan 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 45/Romney 43

President Obama 48/Gingrich 39

President Obama 48/Santorum 38

Clearly Rasmussen doesn’t see Paul as a serious contender – finally something I can agree on with Rasmussen.

Romney’s primary record went from 1-1 to 1-2 as a seemingly clear victory became at best a long and drawn out primary process for Mittens, but at worse a losing proposition; Florida will tell if he’s realistically still in it.

So, if the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mittens Romney would barely be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

 
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Posted by on January 23, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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