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Monthly Archives: November 2012

Oh Look, the “Private Sector” really “is doing fine” – 10 Nov 12 Edition

“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama

Since the above statement by the President the following indicators show the private sector is indeed “doing fine”; the info comes from FOX Business:

First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion, Microsoft reported $16 billion, and Procter & Gamble reported $20.7 billion

In the second quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion and AT&T reported $31.6 billion …

Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion, Wells Fargo reported $21.2 billion, J.P. Morgan Chase reported $25.9 billion, Citigroup reported $19.4 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $17.1 billion, Goldman Sachs reported $8.35 billion, Coca-Cola reported $12.34 billion, IBM reported $24.7 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Bank of America reported $20.4 billion, American Express reported $7.9 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7.6 billion, Travelers reported $6.51, Google reported $11.3 billion, McDonald’s reported $7.2 billion, Caterpillar reported $16.45 billion, Yahoo! Reported $1.09 billion, Texas Instruments reported $3.39 billion, United Parcel Service reported $13.07 billion, 3M reported $7.5 billion, AT&T reported $31.5 billion, Boeing reported $20 billion, Merck reported $11.49 billion, Pfizer’s reported $14 billion,

Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion, Apple reported $36 billion, Walt Disney reported $10.78 billion,

The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.

The ADP National Employment Report shows the U.S. private sector added 158,000 jobs in October, more than the 135,000 expected.

The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.

The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.

The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.

The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.

The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 72.2 in October from a downwardly revised 68.4 in September. The results missed estimates of a reading of 72.5, but marked the index’s highest level since February 2008.

The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.

Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose 5.7% in September to a 389,000-unit annualized rate, topping estimates of a 385,000-unit rate and marking the highest reading since April 2010.

U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors reported its index of pending home sales rose 0.3% in September from August, the index climbing 14.5% from a year ago.

U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.

Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.

Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.

The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.

The Commerce Department reports housing starts rose 15% to an annualized rate of 872,000 units in September from August. Housing permits jumped 11.6% to an annualized rate of 894,000 units.

The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.

Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.

U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in September from August, more than the 0.8% expected. Excluding the auto component, sales were up 1.1%, the biggest rise since January and topping estimates of 0.6%.

The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.

The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.

The Commerce Department reported orders for long-lasting goods climbed 9.9% in September from August, topping estimates of a 7.1% increase.

A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.

Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.

A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.7 in October from 51.5 in September, the highest reading since May. The index was expected to fall to 51.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ that didn’t pass Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 339,000 during the third week of October from an upwardly revised 369,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000 from an initially reported 367,000.

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 369,000 during the fourth week of October from an upwardly revised 392,000 the week prior.

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 355,000 last week – week ending 3 Nov 12 – from 363,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000. A Labor Department analyst says superstorm Sandy depressed claims in at least one state and resulted in an increase in claims in others.

The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 171,000 in October from September, surpassing the 125,000 expected, for 32 straight months of positive job growth. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9% from 7.8%, as expected.

U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September from August, topping estimates of 0.7%. Export prices rose 0.8%, coming in ahead of estimates of 0.4%.

Producer prices rose 1.1% in September from August, a bigger jump than the 0.7% expected.

A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for the month of October checked in at 83.1, up from a September reading of 78.3 and marking the highest reading since September 2007, according to a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting sentiment to decrease to 78.

A preliminary reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter and slightly above estimates of 1.9%.

Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 12,815.39 on 9 Nov 12

 

 
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Posted by on November 10, 2012 in Economics

 

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Romney ‘Shell-shocked’

As it became clear Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney had lost the election advisors said Willard was taken completely by surprise.

“He was shell-shocked,” one adviser reportedly told CBS News.

Clearly Willard and his staff were caught unprepared because they’d chosen to ignore polling showing swing state races favoring the President. Instead, according to CBS News, they foolishly relied upon their own so-called “unskewed” internal polling, which plainly were not only wrong, but wildly wrong and completely skewed.

Anyone honestly assessing the election knew Romney was never going to win, and for months I’ve predicted the election’s outcome up to and including the morning of election day; this is not rocket science, you simply have to be willing to evaluate the polling data honestly.

CBS News reported as it became clear Willard had lost the race and had to concede, his personal assistant, Garrett Jackson, called his counterpart in the Obama campaign, Marvin Nicholson, to connect the two men.

Romney reportedly appeared “stoic” as he talked to the president, as his wife Ann wept; running mate Paul Ryan seemed “genuinely shocked”, and Ryan’s wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly.

Meanwhile back at the ranch Timmy’s fallen down the well again and conservatives across the nation are in panic mode, mourning for their country as President Obama prepares for the next four years; Glenn Beck’s imploring his faithful listeners to move to the country with “like minded” people and to buy guns and ammunition because America’s “driving the righteous out” and “deserves to be destroyed”; Donald Trump’s calling for “revolution” while Sarah Palin’s “perplexed” and Rush Limbaugh’s “confused” as to how this happened.

It happened because your candidate sucked, and your party’s out of touch with reality. You sit in your bubbles watching FOX News and salivating over Rasmussen polling data totally ignoring all that’s going on around you. If the GOTP’s ever to become the GOP again it needs to pull its collective heads out of its fourth point of contact and look around, otherwise it’s destined to some day, in the not so distant future, to go the way of the Wig Party.

 
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Posted by on November 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2012 in Humor

 

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Posted by on November 7, 2012 in Humor

 

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Elections are perplexing …

Of course, on any given day hot buttered toast can be perplexing for Sarah.

 
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Posted by on November 7, 2012 in Humor

 

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One does not …

 

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Fact vs fiction …

 

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 6 Nov 12 Edition

Today’s the day…

With votes being cast how are the candidates faring in the polls as it all comes to a close?

The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 5 Nov 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 49

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 3 – 5 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 49

Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 49

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.6/47.4

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 6 Nov 12

Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 305/233
Obama 322/216
Obama 301/237
Obama 311/227
Obama 276/262
Obama 300/238

Romney 293/245
Romney 273/265

According to today’s simulations President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Right to vote …

 

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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A simple solution …

A simple amendment to the Constitution which would deal with the ongoing problem of voter intimidation.

“Congress, and no state, shall make no law prohibiting any citizen’s right to vote.”

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election, Constitution

 

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