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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 07 Aug 12 Edition

Thirteen weeks until the November election and the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s still trying to dodge the need to release his tax records and the heat’s now been turned on by Senate Leader Harry Reid who announced on floor of the United States Senate that he’d received a phone call from a former Bain investor who claimed Willard hadn’t paid any taxes in ten years; Romney’s campaign turned around and told Senator Reid to prove it, and to “put up or shut up”. Oddly enough that’s how Willard could solve this problem, he could put up and then everyone else would shut up.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Pew Research poll of registered voters conducted from 16 – 26 Jul 12, showed the President with a 50% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 37%. No candidate has ever even come close to winning the presidency with such pathetic favorability ratings.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 31 Jul – 06 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 46

The most recent Pew Research poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 26 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 51/Romney 41

And finally, the most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 25 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 46

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

Results of 15 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 07 Aug 12

Obama 324/214
Obama 302/236
Obama 325/213
Obama 286/252
Obama 319/219

Obama 288/250
Obama 312/226
Romney 273/265
Obama 347/191
Romney 271/267

Obama 347/191
Obama 320/218
Obama 304/234
Obama 342/196
Obama 311/227

Of 15 simulations Romney manages only three victories, while the President not only beats Romney but beats him by a landslide more than half the time defeating Romney 12/3.

 
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Posted by on August 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 25 Jul 12 Edition

It’s only 15 weeks until the November election and the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s decided that he agrees with President Obama that business success didn’t happen by itself while disagreeing that success didn’t happen by itself. He continues to be under fire for having said he left Bain Capital in 1999 while records from the company filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) show he was still involved into 2002. He’s telling the President it’s time to stop stonewalling on alleged leaks from the White House while he’s been stonewalling for months in refusing to release his tax returns – not smart speech writing.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

According to the last CBS News/NY Times poll of registered voters conducted from 11 Jul 12 – 16 Jul 12, shows the President with a 36% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 32%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 18 Jul – 24 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 45/Romney 46

The most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of registered voters conducted 18 Jul – 22 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

And finally, the most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 15 Jul 12 – 17 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 45/Romney 41

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

Results of 15 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 25 Jul 12

Obama 337/201
Obama 312/226
Obama 316/222
Obama 294/244
Obama 311/227

Obama 275/263
Obama 317/221
Obama 299/239
Obama 305/233
Obama 295/243

Romney 273/265
Obama 352/186
Obama 313/225
Obama 314/224
Romney 275/263

Of 15 simulations ran, Romney ekes out only two victories by the slimmest of margins, while the President not only beats Romney but beats him by a landslide more than half the time defeating Romney 13/15 times.

 
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Posted by on July 25, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 10 Jul 12 Edition

Seventeen weeks until the November election and while President Obama’s gone on the offensive calling on Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone earning less than $250,000 per year, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s calling for the tax cuts to be extended for everyone, saying increasing taxes on the top 2% would hurt the “job creators” in America; only problem with Willard’s theory is we’ve had these tax cuts for more than ten years now, and seen very little return from the so-called “job creators”.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

No new polls on current favorability of the candidates; however, according to the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 Jun – 01 Jul 12, shows the President with a 54% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 49%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ poll(s) – which are any group other than FOX News, Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters conducted 05 Jul – 09 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

The most current Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 01 Jul – 08 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 45

The most recent ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted 05 Jul – 08 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

And finally, the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted 28 Jun 12 – 01 Jul 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 46

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney still loses to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on July 10, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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GOTP House Buckles Under Pressure?

Well, wonder of wonders, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) dominated House buckled under and approved legislation preserving jobs on transportation projects from coast to coast and avoiding interest rate increases on new loans to millions of college students. The bill, which then sailed through the Democratic controlled Senate (for once with no threats of GOTP filibusters), was then sent for the President’s signature.

With the bill’s passage, just over $100 billion can now be spent on highway, mass transit and other transportation programs over the next two years, projects that would’ve expired Saturday without congressional action; it also ends the stalemate over student loans.

Under the bill, interest rates of 3.4 percent for subsidized Stafford loans for undergraduates will continue for another year, had the uber-right Tea Party members had their way, interest rates would have mushroomed to 6.8 percent for 7.4 million students expected to get the loans over the coming year, adding an extra $1,000 to the average cost of each loan.

The Democratic-led Senate passed the measure by a 74-19 vote, after the GOTP-run House approved it 373-52; with all the no votes – of course – being cast by the uber-right conservative members of the Congress.

The final version of the transportation measure dropped a provision – which had drawn a Presidential veto threat – that would have forced government approval of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to the Texas coast.

According to the Associated Press (AP), White House spokesman Jay Carney said the administration was glad Congress acted “before middle class families pay the price for inaction.” He said President Obama will keep pressing for approval of more of his job-creating proposals from last year, to hire teachers, police officers and firefighters and for tax credits to companies that hire new workers.

Financing for most of the measure came from extending federal taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel for an additional two years which levies, unchanged for nearly two decades, are 18.4 cents a gallon for gasoline and 24.4 cents for diesel and which fall woefully short of fully financing the highway programs they were designed to do.

About $20 billion would be raised over the next decade by reducing tax deductions for companies’ pension contributions and increasing the fees they pay to federally insure their pension plans. In return, a formula was changed to, in effect; let companies apportion less money for their pensions and to provide less year-to-year variation in those amounts.

Additional revenues will be raised by charging interest on subsidized Stafford loans no more than six years after undergraduates begin their studies.

A loophole was also tightened making it harder for businesses with roll-your-own cigarette machines to classify the tobacco they sell as pipe tobacco – which is taxed at a lower rate than cigarette tobacco. The change is expected to raise nearly $100 million.

The measure also extends Federal flood insurance programs that protect 5.6 million households and businesses, allowing higher premiums and limiting subsidies for vacation homes to help address a shortfall in the program caused by claims from 2005’s Hurricane Katrina.

It also steers 80 percent of the billions in Clean Water Act penalties paid by BP and others for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion to the five Gulf States whose beaches and waters were soiled by the disaster. The money would have otherwise gone to federal coffers.

Federal timber subsidies worth $346 million would be distributed for another year to rural counties, while other funds would be steered to rural school districts.

No matter how this is sliced it’s a victory for the President and a loss for the GOTP, particularly for the uber-right Tea Party; it’s one more victory in a week of victories which saw the Supreme Court’s overturning of the most controversial parts of Arizona’s papers please bill and the upholding of the Affordable Care Act. Try though they might, spinning this beyond their own will be extremely difficult.

 
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Posted by on June 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Romney says it’s OK for public sector employees to be fired?

According to news reports, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential candidate Willard Mitt Romney’s running around the country proclaiming it’s bad for private-sector workers to lose their jobs, but it’s good for government workers to do so.

Of course Willard’s various – as in ever changing – positions on employment are drawing renewed scrutiny following continuing comments that the country doesn’t need to hire anymore firefighters, police officers and teachers, and besides all that the federal government doesn’t pay for them.

The idea the federal government doesn’t pay for firefighters, police officers or teachers is – to use Willard’s words – absurd; of course the federal government pays for, or at least a very sizeable part of the salaries for these positions; in fact it spends billions of dollars annually paying for teachers, police officers and firefighters throughout the country, and the fact Romney fails to know this is just one more clear demonstration of how he’s not ready for the prime time – he’s just one more conservative businessman in an expensive suit proclaiming how he’s going to run the government like a business, and won’t that be grand? Well, except for two things, the government’s not a business, and second, the last time we elected a “business man” as president we ended up with two unfunded wars and the economy over the side of a cliff.

Local governments of course do the actual hiring, but many of those hires are only possible thanks to federal dollars and all too many local communities would have far fewer of these vital public employees if the federal government suddenly stopped funding teachers through Title I, police officers through the COPS program and firefighters through the SAFER program.

Everyone knows how Willard “likes to fire people”, but his non-stop suggestion that firing a government employee can directly lead to the hiring of one or more private-sector workers is pure fantasy. Recently he told Colorado voters that President Barack Obama’s stimulus program “didn’t help private-sector jobs. It helped preserve government jobs.”

As Ronald Reagan would say, “Well, there you go again,” meaning Willard’s not just a liar, but a big fat hairy liar and what’s more he knows he’s lying. President Obama’s more than $800 billion stimulus created both public-sector and private-sector jobs and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently estimated the stimulus saved or created more than 3 million jobs. Talk about being out of touch with economic reality; the truth is the vast majority of the stimulus was used for “shovel ready” construction projects which hired? Wait for it; private sector employees wielding those shovels.

But facts don’t concern the Rominator, and who cares if it saved public sector jobs, he’s selling the idea government employees aren’t real people, so if they lose their jobs, health insurance etc it’s no big deal. “We have 145,000 more government workers under this president,” Willard mews. “Let’s send them home and put you back to work.”

And dolts look at him and nod, thinking, “That’s right, fire them govment people and give me their jobs instead,” because that’s what he’s selling.

Romney wants to take public sector jobs and convert them into private sector jobs; we’ll hire companies like Black Water to run our local police forces because that’s worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan. But that’s where this is going, it’s going towards private sector run schools, police departments and fire departments where we – as citizens – will pay these groups to perform these services instead of paying taxes; the catch is if you don’t pay, you don’t have fire fighters showing up to put out your burning house, and you don’t have police officers coming to help with that intruder, and your schools will be run by some giant conglomerate a thousand miles away; no more school board, instead you’ll have a board of directors more concerned with stock holders being paid dividends than your child getting the best possible education.

It doesn’t matter to Romney and his minions that numerous independent economists have verified the stimulus prevented a devastating economic collapse, including private and public-sector jobs losses, from being worse; facts don’t matter to Willard.

Recently on Fox News, Willard rejected claims his policies would worsen unemployment and deprive communities of needed services.

“Teachers and firemen and policemen are hired at the local level, and also by states,” Romney said. “The federal government doesn’t pay for teachers, firefighters or policemen. So obviously, that’s completely absurd.”

Well, let’s look at the facts; Title I funding for school personnel was $14.5 billion this year, the Senate Appropriations Committee said. Federal grants to states for special education reached $11.5 billion. Additionally, millions of federal dollars put police and firefighters in various communities.

Clearly Romney doesn’t get it; he doesn’t understand how federal funding’s essential to local communities; he’s out of touch with anything outside his millionaire reality. Many on the right scream about cutting federal spending and handing the programs back to the states; well, guess what? When you remove federal dollars for essential services those states will be forced – sooner or later – to increase state taxes and localities will also raise taxes to pay for them; we’ll see our federal tax burden drop only to see our state and local tax burdens rise to meet the deficit.

 
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Posted by on June 14, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Eventually taxes will be increased

We have a huge debt and deficit primarily due to ten years of war while cutting taxes; economics of war 101 is you can’t fight a war without paying for it; you either raise taxes amongst your own people or plunder the enemy – since we don’t plunder the enemy we needed to raise taxes, but we did neither. $2 billion dollars spent per week each in Iraq and Afghanistan x 572 weeks = $2,288,000,000,000 of pure debt with no offset whatsoever; coupled to that an infrastructure badly in need of repair, plus an economy devastated by eight years of mismanagement by the previous administration and you have our economic woes of today.

Conservatives need to give up the failed idea of voodoo economics – trickle down has never worked, it’s a nice rosy economic theory that doesn’t produce what it claims will happen; we’ve had tax breaks for the top 1% (the so-called job creators) for more than a decade, where’s the jobs and where’s the revenue?

There’s going to need to be tax increases – sorry, but that’s going to happen; if it’s going to happen it needs to start with those who can afford them most, and it may then be necessary to raise everyone’s taxes.

After that we’re going to have to cut spending, and the first place to do that is the military; we now spend more on defense then the rest of the world combined, we don’t need a huge active military force, we need sufficient to defend the country. After we’ve trimmed back the military industrial complex we can start on other programs including social programs.

Problem with today’s conservatives is they want to do it all backwards; let’s cut taxes for the wealthiest 1% even more while increasing taxes on the lower classes; next lets increase defense spending while cutting social programs.

 
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Posted by on June 2, 2012 in Economics

 

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