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Monthly Archives: March 2012

Mathematically Improbable for Romney to win nomination

Being somewhat of a politics-geek I’ve been thinking why the Romney camp’s pushing the idea he’s the sole inevitable winner of the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating process; the only answer I can come up with is because he’s nothing of the kind and they’re trying to weaken his opponent’s base. They’ve come to understand the longer Rick Santorum and Newton Leroy Gingrich hang on the fewer delegates their guy wins.

If you run the numbers – specifically the number of delegates yet to be won – it’s abundantly clear Romney’s the only one who can still win the nomination outright prior to the GOTP convention 27 – 30 Aug 12; but it’s not very clear at all if he’ll be able to do so, in fact the odds are fast becoming anything but in his favor. There are 878 delegates left to be picked up by the candidates and 1,144 needed for victory; Romney’s picked up 455 delegates to date and still needs to pick up 691 delegates to win, or roughly 80% of all the remaining delegates. If you eliminate the “winner take all” primaries won so far he’s averaging about 33% of delegates, and that’s not going to get it done; even if he wins all the “winner take all” primaries – which he may, but is doubtful – if Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich remain in the race it doesn’t look probable for Romney, and thus a brokered convention is looming more and more on the horizon.

There are 126 so-called “super delegates” available at the GOTP Convention, made up of state chairs and additional RNC types, but they’re not necessarily going all to Romney, especially considering his “popularity” within the party; even if we were to count all the super delegates to Mitt, he only takes the nomination at that point by a mere 50 or so delegates. Santorum or Gingrich could very much act as spoilers sending this into a brokered convention. At any rate, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Mitt’s the nominee. Not just yet.

Of course the only possible way for Santorum to win now is in a brokered convention and that’s what he’s aiming at, he knows he can’t win any other way; Newt’s reason for hanging on is pure and simple, he hates Romney’s guts for the character attacks following the South Carolina primary; so at this point it’s all about keeping Romney from winning. Ron Paul’s still hanging in there but he’s pretty much inconsequential, basically just siphoning off delegates here and there. Romney’s basically in a begging position where he needs the others to fall out.

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Kansas Caucus) 9 Mar 12 Edition

Super Tuesday has come and gone, that magic time every four years when cat fights turn to dog fights, when the dust is thick and heavy and when it clears there’s usually a clear indicator of who will win their party’s nomination – usually. But this year it’s different, this year we have the hybrid Republican Tea Party (GOTP) types running to the polls to decide for which of the four horsemen of the GOPocalypse they hope will win the presidential nomination. So, how’d they score?

Romney won Alaska’s Proportional Caucus (8 delegates), Idaho’s Non-Binding Caucus (32 delegates), Massachusetts’s Proportional Primary (38 delegates) and Ohio’s Proportional Primary (35 delegates), Vermont’s Hybrid Primary (9 delegates) and Virginia’s Hybrid Primary (43 delegates); additional delegates won = 43; total delegates won = 208

Santorum won North Dakota’s Non-Binding Caucus (11 delegates), Oklahoma’s Proportional Primary (14 delegates) and Tennessee’s Proportional Primary (25 delegates); additional delegates won = 34; total delegates won = 84

Gingrich won Georgia’s Proportional Primary (42 delegates); additional delegates won = 26; total delegates won = 68

Paul won = 21 delegates

So, what’s coming up next on the candidate’s radar?

10 Mar 12 we’ve got the Northern Marianas’ Non-Binding Caucus with 9 delegates; Virgin Islands’ Non-Binding Caucus with 9 delegates and Guam’s Non-Binding Caucus also with 9 delegates, and there’s no polling data for any of these contests.

Kansas’ Hybrid Primary – 10 Mar 12 (40 delegates): no polling data available

Alabama’s Proportional Primary – 13 Mar 12 (50 delegates): Ala. Education Assoc. poll of likely voters conducted 1 – 6 Mar 12; Romney 31; Santorum 22; Gingrich 21 and Paul 7.

American Samoa’s Proportional Caucus – 13 mar 12 (9 delegates): no polling data available

Hawaii’s Proportional Caucus with 20 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 16 Oct 11; Romney 24; Gingrich 8; Paul 4 and Santorum 1.

Mississippi’s Proportional Primary with 52 delegates: PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 6 Nov 11; Gingrich 28; Romney 12; Paul 4 and Santorum 1.

Missouri’s Non-Binding Caucus – 17 Mar 12 (52 delegates): PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12; Gingrich 30; Santorum 28; Romney 24 and Paul 11.

Puerto Rico’s Winner Take All Primary – 18 Mar 12 (23 delegates): no polling data available

Illinois’ Direct Election Primary – 20 Mar 12 (69 delegates): The Simon Poll/SIU poll of registered voters conducted 11 – 16 Oct 12; Romney 21; Gingrich 8; Paul 7 and Santorum 2.

Louisiana’s Proportional Primary – 24 mar 12 (46 delegates): Clarus Research poll of likely voters conducted 20 – 22 Nov 12; Gingrich 31; Romney 23; Paul 6 and Santorum 0.

The regular season records for the dauntless candidates: Romney 7; Santorum 3; Gingrich 1 and Paul 0 with Maine still unbelievably yet to be determined.

The GOTP Delegate Count to date is: Romney 404; Santorum 165; Gingrich 105 and Paul 61.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 3,194,834

Gingrich 989,187

Santorum 956,245

Paul 479,835

Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 3 – 7 Mar 12: Romney 37; Santorum 23; Gingrich 12 and Paul 11 with 17% undecided.

So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 5 – 7 Mar 12; if the general election were held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 44

President Obama 50/Santorum 42

If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mittens Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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President Obama wants to take us back to before the Civil War?

According to news reports, former Republican Tea Party (GOTP) vice-presidential candidate Sarah Louise Palin has declared a video of President Obama embracing the late Harvard Law Professor Derrick Bell, is nothing less than the President “bringing us back…to days before the Civil War” when racial discrimination was prevalent.

In an interview with the only group of Obamaphobes discussing this so-called “issue” – FOX PAC’ Sean Hannity – Palin stated, “He is bringing us back…to days before the Civil War, when unfortunately too many Americans mistakenly believed that not all men were created equal,” she said. “What Barack Obama seems to want to do is go back to before those days when we were in different classes based on income, based on color of skin.”

But why stop there? Palin also accused the President of “trying to divide” the country, “based along lines of gender, of religion, of income, even of race,” citing his association with Bell.

“Look at his embracing of Derrick Bell, the radical college racist professor whom he…embraced literally and figuratively asking others to open their hearts and minds to the radical agenda of a racist like Derrick Bell who believed that white men oppress blacks and minorities,” she said. “And Barack Obama, evidently at least at the time, believed what Derrick Bell believed.”

Yeah, OK Sarah, so, what you’re saying is the first black President wants to take the country back to the Anti-bellum America? What? Please stop talking, you’re going to hurt yourself, and you’re making my brain hurt.

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in Humor

 

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No Right Turn

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in Humor

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in Humor

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2012 in Humor

 

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God himself could not sink this campaign?

According to news reports Willard Thurston Mittens Romney’s campaign staff called the national press corps into a room and boldly declared, it would take an “act of God” for any candidate not named Mitt Romney to win the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nomination. Really, they declared this roughly a month from the 100th anniversary of the sinking of the “unsinkable” RMS Titanic, the ship “God himself could not sink”!?

Now, their seemingly unshakeable confidence in Mr. Vanilla is not necessarily misplaced, especially when one starts looking at the mathematics; clearly Ron Paul is way past done, and outside of Newt’s “miraculous” victory in his home state of Georgia he too is finished in this campaign, leaving only Rick Santorum, who also clearly is facing extremely long odds at winning the nomination out right – but Romney’s camp shouldn’t be invoking the Lord’s name quite so fast. After all, it was just a few short weeks ago that Mrs. Santorum declared that God had chosen Rick.

“We will get to 1,144 whether it’s on someone else’s timeline, or on our timeline,” said one top Romney aide. “We will get to 1,144 and be the Republican nominee.”

But, what if their candidate were to make another couple of dozen gaffs? Like that’ll never happen; and what if Santorum can keep from sounding too crazy, and he wins enough delegates, not necessarily to win, but to keep Mittens from crossing the magic number? And of course there’s always the possibility that many of the delegates – who are “non-binding” switch allegiance?

The Romney campaign’s simply trying to paint their guy as the inevitable winner, and is trying to convince GOTP types to stop all this nonsense and just accept it, and rally to their banner!

“There’s not a lot of Floridas left out there, no more Arizonas, no more Virginias. There’s just no more big chunks of delegates to go get. So whether it’s a one-, two-, three- or four-way race, you’re still going to have people bunched up there,” said one Romney aide.

The campaign’s also trying to get its opponents to accept they can’t win and to drop out rather than to continue to force Romney to spend millions more in primaries and caucuses only to barely squeak past Santorum; states like his home state of Michigan, where he outspent Ricky by 2 to 1 only to win by a couple of percentage points; or in Ohio, where he once again out spent Santorum by more than 2 to 1 and managed a mere 1 percent victory. In short, it’s getting embarrassing and, to top it all off, they’re making Mittens spend his war chest too quickly. Allegedly Romney’ campaign raised $11.5 million in February, but then spent between $8 to $9 million between Michigan and Ohio, and who knows what it spent in Virginia where Ron Paul still managed to win more than 40%.

What’s really funny is how Romney aides are trying to play down the persistent stories their man’s a weak front-runner, unable to connect and failing to garner the support of independent voters and they’re pointing to polling from 1992, which showed then-Gov. Bill Clinton’s favorability ratings upside down.

“If I remember correctly, he served two terms,” said one aide.

THEY’RE COMPARING ROMNEY TO BILL CLINTON!? Yeah, that’s going to help big time with the uber-conservative crowd; or are they simply trying to imply Romney’s got a heartbeat, and is a “great communicator”?

When you, as the purported GOTP frontrunner (who’s only managed to garner 55% of the delegates thus far) start to compare your campaign to Bill Clinton all is not as it appears; my Dad used to tell me when someone keeps talking about one particular strength in a product – or a candidate – attempting to get you to buy it, that’s usually its weakest point; team Romney’s not confident of winning, they’re scared spit less this is going to drag on into summer, that Mittens isn’t going to garner enough delegates and they’re going to be facing a brokered convention, where Mr. Luke Warm doesn’t win.

RUN HARDER RICK! RUN HARDER NEWT!

 
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Posted by on March 8, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Government to limit family size?

According to news reports former Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential candidate Michele Bachmann’s warning women the government’s going to start telling American families how many children they can have, and it’s all part of what’s really behind President Obama’s contraception mandate; and where did she make this astounding claim? On the only network in the country where such things could be made, Glenn Beck’s network, GBTV, on the show “Real News From The Blaze.” No doubt her newest claims worried the dozens of viewers watching the program.

“I think that it is a mistake for us to get caught in a trap that the left would love to have us dance in,” she said, adding that the “war on women” was an appeal to a “group.”

“Women have a lot to lose under ‘Obamacare,’ and I’ll give you an example,” she continued. “If you want to go into specifics, what the government can give, the government can take away. It certainly isn’t beyond the pale to think, in light of Kathleen Sebelius, the Health and Human Services secretary — she said that it’s important that we have contraceptives because that prevents pregnancy, and pregnancy is more expensive to the federal government.”

But wait, there’s more; once she got into her groove she kept following her own twisted theory to its conclusion. “Going with that logic, according to our own Health and Human Services secretary, it isn’t far-fetched to think that the president of the United States could say ‘We need to save health care expenses. The federal government will only pay for one baby to be born in the hospital per family, or two babies to be born per family.’ That could happen. We think it couldn’t?”

When anchor Amy Holmes asked if she was really suggesting the government might one day advocate a one-child policy like China, Bachmann replied.

“What I’m saying is that now that we know the president of the United States, unilaterally, can tell insurance companies, ‘You must offer the morning-after abortion pill, you must offer sterilizations, you must offer contraceptives free to the recipients of those products, because we tell you to’ (which means they’re effectively setting the price, as well), that says that whoever the health care dictator, could conceivably make that order, as well,” she said.

Bachmann’s clearly been missing the spot light she had during her failed presidential folly and now she’s pandering to the farthest of the far right, hence appearing on Beck’s “thriving” internet network; it’s the only place “Krazy” is welcomed these days, and falling back on tried and true conservative tactic of fear, gloom and despair.

No one’s going to dictate to American families how many children they can have, and no one’s going to force sterilization or contraception on women; this is just more of the same Bachmann we’ve all come to know and love.

 
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Posted by on March 7, 2012 in Women's Rights

 

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Cut down the forest of hypocrisy …

Christian conservatives are screaming about contraception being forced on them by the President, but refuse to condemn Rush Limbaugh for saying vile and degrading things about women.

Don’t preach “family values” to me until I see you condemn Limbaugh.

Don’t preach “religious” freedom to me until you condemn Limbaugh

Don’t claim to be the “moral” majority until you condemn Limbaugh.

You scream about “values” and about “religion” and then allow someone like this to be your hero; to be your spokesman?

You call someone a hero who calls a young woman a “slut” and “prostitute” and who attacks her for three full broadcast days, more than 9 hours of accusations and vilifying, asking to see the videos of her alleged promiscuity?

Want to know where the GOTP candidates really stand on “family values” and how they view women?

As a Latter-day Saint, where’s Mitt Romney’s outrage?

As Catholics, where’s Rick Santorum’s and Newt Gingrich’s outrage?

I’m sorry, I can’t see your “values” because there’s a forest of hypocrisy in my way.

Do what’s right conservatives and then come talk to me …

 
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Posted by on March 7, 2012 in Women's Rights

 

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