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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 11 Sep 12 Edition

11 Sep

With eight (8) weeks to go until the November election there’s good news and bad news for Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney. The good news is he’s finally found his post convention “bounce”, and the bad news? President Obama’s got it. Following a mediocre Republican National Convention filled with all the usual FOX News talking points the Democratic National Convention finished high after three days of incredible speeches and multiple political home runs.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, showed the President with a 57% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the above mentioned CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 46

The most recent Gallup (Monday – 7 day tracking) poll of registered voters conducted from 3 – 10 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

As a comparison, the last Gallup Tracking poll prior to the DNC of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12 demonstrates clearly how the President’s poll numbers have indeed bumped higher by six points following the DNC:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most recent IBD/CSM/TIPP poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 44

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 27 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

On this day four years ago John McCain was leading in the polls 47.7/45.2 but the President went on to defeat McCain 52.1/44.5.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 11 Sep 12

Obama 314/224
Obama 337/201
Obama 287/251
Obama 287/251
Obama 285/253

Romney 270/268
Obama 288/250
Obama 313/225
Obama 326/212
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations Romney wins only one as the President beats him nine (9) times, and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

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3 Comments

Posted by on September 11, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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3 responses to “Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 11 Sep 12 Edition

  1. Eric

    September 11, 2012 at 08:15

    That sounds like a game my wife and I like to play! Bouncey, bouncey, bouncey… 😀

     
  2. The Real American & Veteran of the Country Called "USA"

    September 11, 2012 at 22:05

    Obama wins say by by to everything American!!! You Obama zombies shouldn’t even be allowed to call yourselves Americans!!!!!! May God by Merciful on your souls for destroying such a great country called America!!!

     
  3. Phil Bundy

    September 12, 2012 at 07:10

    A “real American” would understand how obtuse your statement is …

     

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