With eight (8) weeks to go until the November election there’s good news and bad news for Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney. The good news is he’s finally found his post convention “bounce”, and the bad news? President Obama’s got it. Following a mediocre Republican National Convention filled with all the usual FOX News talking points the Democratic National Convention finished high after three days of incredible speeches and multiple political home runs.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?
The last favorability CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, showed the President with a 57% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 48%.
So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the above mentioned CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the election were held today:
President Obama 52/Romney 46
The most recent Gallup (Monday – 7 day tracking) poll of registered voters conducted from 3 – 10 Sep 12, if the election were held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 44
As a comparison, the last Gallup Tracking poll prior to the DNC of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12 demonstrates clearly how the President’s poll numbers have indeed bumped higher by six points following the DNC:
President Obama 46/Romney 47
The most recent IBD/CSM/TIPP poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 46/Romney 44
The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 27 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 47
The most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 46/Romney 45
On this day four years ago John McCain was leading in the polls 47.7/45.2 but the President went on to defeat McCain 52.1/44.5.
If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 11 Sep 12
Of 10 simulations Romney wins only one as the President beats him nine (9) times, and usually by very comfortable margins.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.