It has been nearly four months since I last commented on the current 2016 Presidential Election, and in those four months next to nothing has changed. The political season continues to stagger forward. The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown bus is still filled to overflowing while its fascist driver, Donald Trump, careens from side to side along the road, threatening to send the GOTP off of the proverbial cliff. Making one crazy declaration after another Trump continues to lead in the polls, appealing to the worse parts of human nature, and firmly now ensconced as the Party’s new leader. His leading is not an endorsement of conservatism in America; it is an indictment.
So, where are things as we move towards Christmas and New Years?
Nationally, “the Donald,” aka “Der Fuhrer,” the man who seems to relish living in political chaos, continues holding on to the top spot in the polls in spite of all his outlandish comments.
The CBS/NY Times Poll, “conducted by telephone December 4-8, 2015 among a random sample of 1,275 adults nationwide, including 1,053 registered voters” has the Republican race lining up thus:
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz (the Canadian who would be President) 16%
Ben Carson 13%
Marco Rubio 9%
Rand Paul 4%
Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Mike Huckabee 3%
None of them 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Rick Santorum, George Pataki, and Lindsey Graham 0%
It must hurt to know that “none of them” garners more of a percentage of the party faithful than you do.
In a USA Today/Suffolk Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from December 2-6, 2015:
Paul, Christie, and Kasich 2%
Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum 1%
Pataki and Graham 0%
Something very troubling for the Republican Party is the fact that 68% of Trump followers have said they would support him if he bolted from the GOTP and made an independent run for the White House. Reality being 68% of Trump supporters could mean anywhere from 15% to 20% or more of the Republican base in a general election, ensuring a Democratic victory in 2016.
On the Democratic side, the CBS/NY Times Poll has:
Hillary Clinton 52%
Bernie Sanders 32%
Martin O’Malley 2%
The USA Today/Suffolk Poll has:
Sanders at 29%
According to the USA Today/Suffolk Poll, if the General Election was today:
Clinton 48/Trump 44
Rubio 48/Clinton 45
Clinton 47/Cruz 45
Clinton 46/Carson 45
According to a CNN/ORC Poll, conducted from 27 November to 1 December, if the General Election was today:
Clinton 50/Cruz 47
Carson 50/Clinton 47
Clinton 49/Trump 46
Rubio 49/Clinton 48
Clearly, there are some serious problems with the polling data when a CNN/ORC Poll finds Ben – the Egyptians built the pyramids to store grain – Carson beating Hillary Clinton at anything. The CNN/ORC poll is highly suspect.
Finally, in an MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll, conducted from 15 November to 2 December:
Clinton 52/Trump 41
Clinton 51/Cruz 44
Clinton 48/Rubio 45
Clinton 48/Carson 47
According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, odds are Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States, and the others would still be footnotes in history books.
If you are a Republican, your only hope appears to be with a very junior Senator from Florida. Good luck with that.