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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 12 December 2015 Edition

It has been nearly four months since I last commented on the current 2016 Presidential Election, and in those four months next to nothing has changed. The political season continues to stagger forward. The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown bus is still filled to overflowing while its fascist driver, Donald Trump, careens from side to side along the road, threatening to send the GOTP off of the proverbial cliff. Making one crazy declaration after another Trump continues to lead in the polls, appealing to the worse parts of human nature, and firmly now ensconced as the Party’s new leader. His leading is not an endorsement of conservatism in America; it is an indictment.

decision 2016

So, where are things as we move towards Christmas and New Years?

Nationally, “the Donald,” aka “Der Fuhrer,” the man who seems to relish living in political chaos, continues holding on to the top spot in the polls in spite of all his outlandish comments.

The CBS/NY Times Poll, “conducted by telephone December 4-8, 2015 among a random sample of 1,275 adults nationwide, including 1,053 registered voters” has the Republican race lining up thus:

Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz (the Canadian who would be President) 16%
Ben Carson 13%
Marco Rubio 9%
Rand Paul 4%
Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Mike Huckabee 3%
None of them 2%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Rick Santorum, George Pataki, and Lindsey Graham 0%

It must hurt to know that “none of them” garners more of a percentage of the party faithful than you do.

In a USA Today/Suffolk Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from December 2-6, 2015:

Trump 27%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 16%
Carson 10%
Bush 4%
Paul, Christie, and Kasich 2%
Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum 1%
Pataki and Graham 0%

Something very troubling for the Republican Party is the fact that 68% of Trump followers have said they would support him if he bolted from the GOTP and made an independent run for the White House. Reality being 68% of Trump supporters could mean anywhere from 15% to 20% or more of the Republican base in a general election, ensuring a Democratic victory in 2016.

On the Democratic side, the CBS/NY Times Poll has:

Hillary Clinton 52%
Bernie Sanders 32%
Martin O’Malley 2%

The USA Today/Suffolk Poll has:

Clinton 56%
Sanders at 29%
O’Malley 4%

According to the USA Today/Suffolk Poll, if the General Election was today:

Clinton 48/Trump 44
Rubio 48/Clinton 45
Clinton 47/Cruz 45
Clinton 46/Carson 45

According to a CNN/ORC Poll, conducted from 27 November to 1 December, if the General Election was today:

Clinton 50/Cruz 47
Carson 50/Clinton 47
Clinton 49/Trump 46
Rubio 49/Clinton 48

Clearly, there are some serious problems with the polling data when a CNN/ORC Poll finds Ben – the Egyptians built the pyramids to store grain – Carson beating Hillary Clinton at anything. The CNN/ORC poll is highly suspect.

Finally, in an MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll, conducted from 15 November to 2 December:

Clinton 52/Trump 41
Clinton 51/Cruz 44
Clinton 48/Rubio 45
Clinton 48/Carson 47

According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, odds are Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States, and the others would still be footnotes in history books.

If you are a Republican, your only hope appears to be with a very junior Senator from Florida. Good luck with that.

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Posted by on December 12, 2015 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 28 August 2015 Edition

The 2016 Presidential Election staggers forward – the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown bus complete with its 17 occupants and pseudo-fascist driver is trying to find some degree of sanity but is failing because Donald Trump continues to lead in the polls, appealing to the worse parts of human nature, and finding room in the GOTP.

decision 2016

Where are things as we slink slowly into September of 2015?

Nationally, the “Joker” of the GOTP clowns – “The Donald” – continues holding on to the top spot in the polls in spite of all his outlandish comments.

A Quinnipiac Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from August 20 to 25, 2015 has the GOTP Clown Bus lining up thus:

Donald Trump still ahead at 28%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz 7%
Scott Walker 6%
Carly Fiorina and John Kasich 5%
Chris Christie 4%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Rand Paul 2%
Rick Perry and Rick Santorum 1%
Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham 0%

In a CNN/ORC Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from August 13 to 16, 2015:

Trump 24%
Bush 13%
Carson 9%
Rubio and Walker 8%
Paul 6%
Fiorina, Cruz and Kasich 5%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Perry 2%
Santorum 1%
Jindal and Graham strong at 0%

In a Fox News Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from August 11 to 13, 2015:

Trump leads at 25%
Carson 12%
Cruz 10%
Bush 9%
Walker and Huckabee sit at 6%
Fiorina 5%
Rubio and Kasich 4%
Christie and Paul 3%
Perry, Santorum and Jindal 1%
Graham 0%

Lastly, in a Rasmussen Poll, conducted by telephone of “registered voters” from August 9 to August 10, 2015 the Clown Parade is as follows:

Trump leads at 17%
Bush and Rubio 10%
Walker and Fiorina 9%
Carson 8%
Cruz 7%
Paul, Kasich and Christie 4%
Huckabee 3%
Perry, Santorum, Jindal and Graham 1%

On the Democratic side, the Quinnipiac Poll has:

Hillary Clinton 45%
Bernie Sanders 22%
Vice-President Joe Biden 18%
Martin O’Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%

The CNN/ORC Poll has:

Clinton still way out in front with 47%
Sanders at 29%
Biden 14%
O’Malley 2%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

Fox News has the Democratic race:

Clinton 49%
Sanders 30%
Biden 10%
Webb and O’Malley 1%
Chafee 0%

According to the Quinnipiac Poll, if the General Election was today:

Clinton 45/Trump 41
Clinton 44/Rubio 43
Clinton 42/Bush 40

The poll ignored all other challengers

According to the CNN/ORC Poll, if the General Election was today:

Clinton 53/Fiorina 43
Clinton 52/Bush 43
Clinton 52/Walker 46
Clinton 51/Trump 45

The poll did not ask voters about a match-up between Clinton and Rubio, Paul, Cruz, Carson, Christie, Huckabee, Kasich, Perry, Santorum, Jindal or Graham.

According to recent polling data available, if the election was today Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States, and the others would still be footnotes in history books.

Of note, according to the Quinnipiac poll, “Note to Biden: They like you, they really like you, or they like you more than the others.

“If he is sitting on the fence, his scores in the matchups and his favorability ratings may compel him to say, ‘Let’s do this.’”

“Matchups among all American voters show: Biden tops Trump 48 – 40 percent. He beats Bush 45 – 39 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio’s 41 percent.

“Clinton edges Trump 45 – 41 percent. She gets 42 percent to Bush’s 40 percent and gets 44 percent to Rubio’s 43 percent.

“Sanders edges Trump 44 – 41 percent and edges Bush 43 – 39 percent. Rubio gets 41 percent to Sanders’ 40 percent.”

Note to Republicans, according to Quinnipiac, “If Trump runs as a third party candidate, Clinton gets 40 percent, with 24 percent each for Bush and Trump.”

 
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Posted by on August 28, 2015 in 2016 Election

 

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Rand Paul’s NSA Quest

rand-paul nsa blame game copy

Paul’s desire to end NSA data collection is something I can agree with 100%, but he doesn’t need to lie about where the program came from to get the job done. That’s being political, and it cheapens what he is trying to achieve.

 
 

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No Right Turns

DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 6: U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) delivers a speech titled,

Sometimes you just have to stop and wonder what it must be like inside some people’s minds

 
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Posted by on May 29, 2015 in 2016 Election

 

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An Open Letter

Forty-seven Republican Tea Party (GOTP) members of the United States Senate have written an open letter to the leadership of Iran.

Why?

To undermine the legitimacy of the President of the United States and his Constitutional authority to conduct foreign policy for, and in behalf of, the United States.

Tom Cotton

The 47 GOTP Senators – aka the Gang of 47 – are led by a very freshman senator from Arkansas, Senator Tom Cotton, who is so new to the Senate he probably has to still ask directions to the men’s room. Like other brash junior GOTP senators – think Cruz, Rubio and Paul – Cotton is walking around shooting from the political hip and shooting himself in the foot, and a whole lot of his associates in the majority party. He has not taken the time to learn what the Senate does, nor what its role and responsivities are under Article I of the Constitution. It appears doubtful the freshman senator has ever read the Constitution, and if he has he certainly does not understand it. The Senate, for example, does not have purview over foreign relations except when the Executive sends it a treaty – after it has been negotiated – to ratify. Utilizing its Constitutional power of “advice and consent” it may debate and wrangle with the President concerning the treaty, but it may not negotiate with foreign countries. In fact, it is against federal law for the Senate to contact foreign countries and discuss foreign policy in any way, shape of form.

In 1798, a state legislator – George Logan – from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania took it upon himself to privately negotiate with France during a period of United States history known as the “Quasi War.” The Federalist members of Congress were so angered by Logan’s self-appointed mission, they passed the Logan Act in January of 1799.

The Act simply states, “Any citizen of the United States, wherever he may be, who, without authority of the United States, directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse with any foreign government or any officer or agent thereof, with intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States, or to defeat the measures of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.”

Not only have the Gang of 47 committed a huge act of overreach of its authority, it is also clearly in violation of the Logan Act. The little group has committed one of the greatest political acts of stupidity possibly in the annals of the United States Senate.

Although it should be abundantly clear to anyone the Senators in question had no authority to send any kind of correspondence to the leaders of another country, just in case anyone still thinks the Congress has the right to interfere, let us remove all lingering doubt.

The Supreme Court in 1936 ruled in United States v. Curtiss-Wright Export Corp. (1936), “[T]he President alone has the power to speak or listen as a representative of the nation. He makes treaties with the advice and consent of the Senate; but he alone negotiates. Into the field of negotiation the Senate cannot intrude, and Congress itself is powerless to invade it.” The Senate “cannot intrude” and the Congress “is powerless.”

Technically, the President could ask the Justice Department to investigate whether the Gang of 47 committed any crime with its letter and could seek prosecution. Probably not something the President will do. The real problem for these GOTP members of the Senate is they look like rank amateurs and fools and have made their country look foolish as well.

Additionally, there is a very real political problem will be for those members of the Gang of 47 who have Presidential aspirations. Senators Ted Cruz (who can never be president), Marco Rubio and Rand Paul have all just proven – beyond a shadow of a doubt – their foreign affairs experience is somewhere between pre-K and Second Grade. One day these very junior senators will have to debate some adults, and when they do this letter will come back and bite them very deservedly in their political buttocks.

One last bit of reality for the Gang of 47 – and its groupies. The ongoing negotiations with Iran are not bilateral – meaning between the United States and Iran – but are multilateral. The United States is one of half a dozen nations negotiating Iran’s nuclear future. Currently involved in the discussions – besides the United States – are Great Britain, China, Russia, France and Germany, under the auspices of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or NPT, and as such any agreement could only be changed, or nullified, if all the signatories agreed to do so, not simply if the United States Congress, or some future GOTP President decided to so. The NPT became part of international law in 1970, being extended indefinitely in 1995. Any agreement reached through the negotiations would be a United Nations’ Security Council Resolution, and not something any future U.S. President or any member of the Congress has the authority to undo.

Maybe next time Senator Cotton thinks he needs to write a letter – along with his buddies – to another country’s leaders he’ll ask a responsible adult if it’s OK first.

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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Just a thought…

Nothing says unity like three responses to a

 
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Posted by on January 29, 2014 in 2016 Election

 

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Conservatives prove once again why we have protections under the First Amendment

Thank You Republican/Tea Party types for making my point as to why DOMA and Prop 8 were unconstitutional; if your opposition to same-sex marriage and banning it by law is based on your religious values then those laws are clearly unconstitutional under the separation of Church and State provisions of the First Amendment.

Bill Armistead, Chairman of the Republican Party in Alabama

Armistead

“I am disappointed to learn that SCOTUS has struck down DOMA and will now require that federal benefits be extended to homosexual couples.  This is an affront to the Christian principles that this nation was founded on.  The federal government is hijacking marriage, a uniquely religious institution, and they must be stopped.  This is a nation founded on Christian values and the Bible is very clear on marriage – one man and one woman.  Alabama’s state law banning gay marriage will prevent these benefits from being extended in Alabama, but our tax dollars will still go to support a lifestyle that we fundamentally disagree with.”

Of course any student of the Bible knows that Armistead’s views on marriage being between “one man and one woman” are not even close to true. In Genesis chapter 16 we read that Sarai gives her hand maid Hagar to Abram as his wife; Sarai was Abram’s first wife and by giving him Hagar she created a plural marriage.

In Genesis 25 we learn that Abram – now Abraham – takes another wife, this one’s name is Keturah. Let’s see, so far that makes three wives in this plurality.

In Genesis 30 Jacob marries Bilhah and Zilpah after already being married to Leah and Rachel. Seems like the Biblical definition of marriage being between “one man and one woman” isn’t quite so clear, now is it? Perhaps Mr. Armistead should pay a little more attention in Sunday school.

In Deuteronomy 21 the inheritance rights of children born into a plural marriage are established.

In Samuel 2 we read how David took his two wives, Ahinoam and Abigail with him when he went to Hebron.

In 1 Kings 11 we learn that Solomon had 700 wives – 700!

In 2 Chronicles 13 we can read how Abijah had fourteen wives.

FOX Huckster Mike Huckabee

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“My thoughts on the SCOTUS ruling that determined that same sex marriage is okay: “Jesus wept.”

And this would be? Jesus wept because the Supreme Court of the United States upheld the Constitution? Of course He did Mike, of course He did; whatever. If Jesus is weeping it’s more likely because of the hate being spewed in His name by so-called Christians like yourself, and less likely based upon the Court’s decision to allow people freedom of choice in whom they will marry.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachman

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This decision is one that is profound because the Supreme Court not only attacked our Constitution today, they not only attacked the equal protection rights of every citizen under our Constitution, they attacked something that they have no jurisdiction over whatsoever, the foundational unit of our society, which is marriage.

“That is something that God created. That is something that God will define. The Supreme Court, though they may think so, have not risen to the level of God.”

How did the Court attack the Constitution? Was it by upholding it?

Marriage, by-the-way Congresswoman, IS regulated by the state, and hence the Court certainly DOES have jurisdiction over it.

And, since laws in this nation aren’t supposed to founded on the religious whims of fanatics like the soon to be retired Bachman, pointing out that her views of the legality of DOMA and Prop 8 are strictly religious in nature she helps make both mine and the Court’s point.

Senator Rand Paul

rand paul

“If you change one variable — man and a woman to man and man, and woman and woman — you cannot then tell me that, you can’t logically tell me you can’t change the other variable — one man, three women.  Uh, one woman, four men…. If I’m a devout Muslim and I come over here and I have three wives, who are you to say if I’m an American citizen, that I can’t have multiple marriages?  I think this is the conundrum and gets back to what you were saying in the opening — whether or not churches should decide this. But it is difficult because if we have no laws on this people take it to one extension further.  Does it have to be humans?”

Attacking the rulings from the point of view that it might lead to polygamy, and of course the inevitable far-right white bread Christian leap that it will lead to people marrying animals, which is such a leap it doesn’t deserve to be answered. But of course he couldn’t resist the dig at Islam, throwing out the fear card that this will lead to a Muslim state of polygamous Shariah law. His fear of course is that the First Amendment would, and in all reality should, protect the right of the Islamic belief of plural marriage, being a religious tenant. Funny how religion in America to these types only extends to their own narrow views of Christianity.

 
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Posted by on June 27, 2013 in Constitution

 

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