Just six (6) weeks – 42 days – to go until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s spent the last week trying to convince voters he cares about 100% of the nation’s people in spite of being over heard in a recently released video, saying in a $50,000 per plate fund raiser that 47% of voters are freeloading losers who’re so dependent on government handouts they’ll never vote for him.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?
The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, showed the President with a 53% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. Romney’s the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history – no one has scored worse on favorability in over 30 years, not even Dukakis, Carter or Dole.
So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …
Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 46
National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 43
Associated Press/GfK poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 17 Sep 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 46
Hartford Courant/UConn poll of likely voters conducted 11 – 18 Sep 12:
President Obama 46/Romney 43
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13 – 16 Sep 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 45
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.
So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 25 Sep 12
Obama 316/222
Obama 312/226
Obama 303/235
Obama 335/203
Obama 322/216
Obama 319/219
Obama 283/255
Obama 333/205
Obama 293/245
Obama 347/191
Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 53-47; while Democrats will be picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 227/208.
The Liberty Tree 