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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 05 September 2016 Edition

Since our last polling update, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has travelled to Mexico City, further insulted the Mexican people and returned to Phoenix to give a speech insulting American Hispanics, and giving speeches to African Americans claiming they “have nothing to lose” by voting for him; proving once again he is clueless. The candidates move towards debates – unless Trump decides he is not willing to debate Hillary Clinton, which has been floated as a possibility.

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers show Trump in the decline.

Fox News 26 August – 01 September – Clinton 48/Trump 42
Economist/YouGov 27-29 August – Clinton 47/Trump 42
PPP (D) 26-28 August – Clinton 48/Trump 43
USA Today/Suffolk 24-29 August – Clinton 48/Trump 41
NBC News/SM 22-28 August – Clinton 48/Trump 42

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-05sep16

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a continuing reminder,

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump eight out of ten times.

Clinton 291/Trump 247
Clinton 341/Trump 197
Clinton 339/Trump 199
Clinton 328/Trump 210
Clinton 348/Trump 190

Clinton 230/Trump 308
Clinton 353/Trump 185
Clinton 253/Trump 285
Clinton 336/Trump 202
Clinton 294/Trump 244

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will still fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on September 5, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 27 August 2016 Edition

Since our last polling update, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has had to fire his campaign manager, Paul Manafort, after it was discovered he has been on the payroll of a Vladimir Putin lackey, not surprising when we consider how pro-Putin Trump has been. Just more evidence of the GOP candidate’s overt ties to a potential enemy. Earlier Trump openly committed an act of sedition, when he asked Russian hackers to attack Hillary Clinton’s servers and find her missing emails. Trump has called for a Special Prosecutor to investigate the Clinton Foundation; shouldn’t we be asking for a Special Prosecutor to be appointed to investigate Trump’s ties to foreign governments?

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers show Trump in the decline.

Reuters/Ipsos 20-26 August – Clinton 42/Trump 35
Quinnipiac 18-24 August – Clinton 51/Trump 41
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 15-21 August – Clinton 50/Trump 42
Gravis Poll 15 August – Clinton 54/Trump 46

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-27Aug2016

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.
Clinton 307/Trump 231
Clinton 350/Trump 188
Clinton 349/Trump 189
Clinton 304/Trump 234
Clinton 322/Trump 216

Clinton 362/Trump 176
Clinton 288/Trump 250
Clinton 308/Trump 230
Clinton 267/Trump 271
Clinton 319/Trump 219

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will still fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on August 27, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 29 July 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump openly committed an act of sedition during the week, asking Russian hackers to attack Hillary Clinton’s servers and find her missing emails leaving leaders of both parties to question whether Trump should receive any intelligence briefings from the CIA, as he may not be entirely trustworthy.

Hillary Clinton has made history being named the Democratic Party’s nominee – the first woman nominated by a major political party in United States history. Sorry, Jill Stein does not count since the Green Party is definitely not a major party. Clinton has selected Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate, and the two parties have their champions.

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers giving Trump a small post-convention bump are beginning to go soft.

Reuters/Ipsos 25-29 July – Clinton 40/Trump 35
LA Times/USC 22-28 July – Clinton 41/Trump 47
Economist/YouGov 23-24 July – Clinton 47/Trump 42
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 18-24 July – Clinton 46/Trump 45
CNN/ORC Poll 22-24 July – Clinton 48/Trump 45
Gravis Poll 21-22 July – Clinton 49/Trump 51

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-29July 2016

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 294/Trump 244
Trump 279/Clinton 259
Clinton 278/Trump 260
Clinton 298/Trump 240
Clinton 300/Trump 238

Clinton 342/Trump 196
Clinton 330/Trump 208
Clinton 302/Trump 236
Clinton 308/Trump 230
Clinton 293/Trump 245

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be a fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on July 29, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 22 July 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has declared only he can save America, and has emerged from the disaster which was the Republican National Convention. Between Ben Carson claiming Hillary Clinton is in league with Satan, wife Melania willfully committing plagiarism, and the crowd shouting for blood, calling for Hillary’s arrest and booing Ted Cruz from the stage, many Republican insiders are happy that he’s off to the slaughter and good riddance.

decision 2016

Trump has also anointed his running mate, Governor of Indiana Mike Pence, right-wing evangelical crazy, and politician in freefall who was about to lose his reelection bid after a series of horrendous decisions, including last year’s “religious freedom” exercise wherein he signed into law a bill allowing “Christian” businesses to discriminate against anyone they felt violated God’s law, but primarily same-sex couples.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is set to pick her running mate as she prepares for next week’s Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. Clinton and fellow Democrats spent the past week gleefully watching the Trump Coronation stumble from one miscue to the next.

Reuters/Ipsos 16-20 July – Clinton 40/Trump 36
Economist/YouGov 15-17 July – Clinton 45/Trump 41
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 11-17 July – Clinton 46/Trump 45
CNN/ORC Poll 13-16 July – Clinton 49/Trump 42
ABC News/Wash Post 11-14 July – Clinton 47/Trump 43

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-22 July 2016

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 328/Trump 210
Clinton 342/Trump 196
Clinton 271/Trump 267
Clinton 304/Trump 234
Clinton 290/Trump 248

Trump 298/Clinton 240
Clinton 282/Trump 256
Clinton 295/Trump 243
Clinton 273/Trump 265
Clinton 320/Trump 218

According to recent polling data available, if all things remain constant, odds are Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on July 22, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Hannity’s a liar and an idiot

The Leprechaun, Sean Hannity’s at it again, telling one big whopper after another. Tonight’s lie came during his FOX News program (9 Jan 13) when he claimed no president had ever made use of recess appointments until President Obama, I just heard him say it, you can’t make this stuff up; but of course almost every President since – and including – George Washington have made recess appointments.

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President Washington appointed South Carolina judge John Rutledge as Chief Justice of the United States during a congressional recess in 1795.

Some additional examples?

New Jersey judge William J. Brennan was appointed to the Supreme Court by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 through a recess appointment. This was done in part with an eye on the presidential campaign that year; Eisenhower was running for reelection, and his advisors thought it would be politically advantageous to place a northeastern Catholic on the court. Brennan was promptly confirmed when the Senate came back into session. President Eisenhower, also using a recess appointment, designated Charles W. Yost as United States ambassador to Syria.But wait, that’s not all President Eisenhower made two additional recess appointments, Chief Justice Earl Warren and Potter Stewart.

President George H. W. Bush appointed Lawrence Eagleburger Secretary of State during a recess in 1992 because Eagleburger had in effect filled that role after James Baker resigned.

And according to the Congressional Research Service, President Bill Clinton made 139 recess appointments while President George W. Bush made a record 171 recess appointments, and as of 5 Jan 12, President Barack Obama – who Hannity claims is attempting to “by-pass the Legislative Branch creating an imperial presidency” – had made only 32 recess appointments.

Hannity’s an idiot, and anyone who ever takes him seriously is also an idiot. Like too many people working at FOX he wouldn’t know a fact if it came and bit him on the nose.

 
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Posted by on January 9, 2013 in Right Wing Crazies

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on January 26, 2012 in Humor

 

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Romney Jokes to Unemployed About Being Out of Work?

Flopsy Mopsy (aka Mitt Romney), the once presumptive Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential candidate, told a group of out-of-work Floridians that “I’m also unemployed.”

Wow, really? What a totally sensitive thing to say, especially to a group of unemployed people.

Only a thoughtless conservative, worth hundreds of millions of dollars, could say something like this. You know, like poor little unemployed Flopsy Mopsy.

Flopsy was trying to be all homey, visiting with a small group of business owners and unemployed workers criticizing President Obama at a Tampa coffee shop. While attacking the President, millionaire Mopsy told the group that although he was currently “unemployed”, he did have his eye on one particular job.

Florida’s April unemployment rate was 10.8 percent, higher than the national rate of 9 percent. But wait, isn’t Florida being run by a GOTP Governor, and isn’t the State Senate and the House both controlled by the GOTP? So, how can the state’s unemployment rate be higher than the national level?

Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, said “This comment shows that Mitt Romney – a man who wants for nothing and whose only occupation for more than four years has been to run for president – is incredibly out of touch with what’s going on in our country and around the dinner tables of those who are out of work,” she said. “Being unemployed, Mr. Romney, is not a joke.”

Perhaps, for Mopsy, this will be his Bush 41 moment. Remember? When the President’s handlers thought it would be great for him to go out shopping, and he didn’t know stores had scanners which could read the prices of the items. It was his rich man out of touch with every day life moment, and it helped lead to his defeat against upstart Bill Clinton.

Flopsy is trying to be a just another Joe, but being a millionaire, and joking about unemployment doesn’t ring true. It’s like everything else about him; nothing ever seems to ring true where Mitt is concerned.

 
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Posted by on June 17, 2011 in 2012 Election

 

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Did Reagan Really Cut Taxes?

ronald-reagan

During today’s bloviations, Rush, while supposedly giving a eulogy for Jack Kemp, attempted yet again to sell the country on the righteousness of the supply-side genius that was Ronald Reagan. He tried to promote the idea that Reagan’s cuts brought about untold economic prosperity, and literally drove the country out of the recession that had helped propel him into office. According to Rush, Reagan’s tax cuts were revolutionary, and helped create the longest sustained economic growth in American history.

Rush, of course couldn’t just praise Reagan, he had to take the opportunity to attack President Obama, “My friends, read his books. Barack Obama’s primary objective is undoing Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts. Now why would that be? That’s all he’s doing, returning the nation’s wealth to its so-called rightful owners. He operates on the belief that every achiever in this country is a thief, that every achiever has stolen or has something that’s genuinely not his or hers — that they’ve come by it unfairly.” But wait, that’s not all, rush continued, “We’re just not going to allow it to happen. But I — there’s no question that he’s defining prosperity down. I mean, his objective is to undo the Reagan tax cuts. Now if his objective is to undo the Reagan tax cuts, I guess those are really big tent moderate ideas, huh? We know Obama is a left-wing radical. He takes a look at anything right-wing and he wants to destroy it.”

And in so defining President Obama, Rush defines himself with his own words: “We know Rush is a right-wing radical. He takes a look at anything left-wing and he wants to destroy it.”

Now for a little truth about Ronald Reagan’s “revolutionary” tax cuts; first, yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and yes Ronald Reagan did cut taxes. Sort of. However, these wonderful, growth expanding, economic exploding tax cuts never fully took effect. You see, they were scaled back in 1982 by a tax increase that averaged $37.5 billion over its first four years.

Second, part of the Reagan tax cut myth is that everyone never had it so good as they did under Reagan. However, the economy actually grew slightly faster under President Clinton, and, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates, the after-tax income of a typical family – adjusted for inflation – rose more than twice as much from 1992 to 2000 as it did from 1980 to 1988.

While President Reagan managed to ram his huge 1981 tax cut through a Democrat controlled Congress, he had to follow it with two large tax increases. Fact of the matter is, no peacetime president has raised taxes so much on so many people. Yes, you heard that right, NO PEACETIME PRESIDENT HAS RAISED TAXES SO MUCH ON SO MANY PEOPLE!

The first two Reagan tax increases came in 1982. That year, he signed into law the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act which raised taxes by $37.5 billion per year, and the Highway Revenue Act of 1982 which raised the gasoline tax by another $3.3 billion. These increases, coming only a year after his “monumental” tax cut were needed because the budget projections used to justify the 1981 tax cut were wildly over optimistic. Over all, the 1982 tax increases undid about a third of the 1981 cut; and truth be told, as a share of the Gross Domestic Product, the increase was substantially larger than Mr. Clinton’s 1993 tax increase. According to the United States Treasury Department, TEFRA alone raised taxes by almost 1 percent of the G.D.P., making it the largest peacetime tax increase in American history. Listen carefully ditto-heads, because I want you to remember, Ronald Reagan oversaw the “LARGEST PEACETIME TAX INCREASE IN AMERICAN HISTORY”.

President Reagan’s next tax increase was known as the Social Security Reform Act of 1983. Its key provision was an increase in the payroll tax that pays for Social Security and Medicare hospital insurance. For many middle- and low-income families, this tax increase more than undid any gains from Reagan’s income tax cuts of 1981. This is a tax increase that lives on, because it initiated automatic increases in the taxable wage base. Thanks to President Reagan, those with moderately high earnings see their payroll taxes rise every single year. Once again ditto-heads, thanks to who? Come on, you can say it, thanks to Ronald Reagan.

According to 1980 Congressional Budget Office estimates, middle-income families with children paid 8.2 percent of their income in income taxes, and 9.5 percent in payroll taxes. By 1988 the income tax share was down to 6.6 percent — but the payroll tax share was up to 11.8 percent. The increase in the payroll tax share outweighed, or canceled out, any benefit from lowering of the income tax share paid.

But wait! We’re not done! The following year, Reagan signed another big tax increase in the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984. This raised taxes by $18 billion per year or 0.4 percent of G.D.P. A similar sized tax increase today would be about $44 billion

OK, now wait just a darned minute! Reagan passed the historic Tax Reform Act of 1986, achieving in startling clarity his supply side goal of lowering individual income tax rates

Well, not quite. The “historic Tax Reform Act of 1986 in reality imposed the largest corporate tax increase in history. OK ditto-heads, repeat after me, “THE LARGEST CORPORATE TAX INCREASE IN HISTORY”.

With the simple stroke of his pen, Reagan raised corporate taxes by $120 billion over five years and closed corporate tax loopholes worth about $300 billion over that same period.

So, what does it all mean?

It means tax cuts during a recession do not work. They didn’t work for Ronald Reagan in 1981, and they certainly didn’t work for George W. Bush in 2001. Tax cuts during a recession coupled with increased federal spending really do not work. Reagan cut taxes and increased federal spending in order to fight, and win, the cold war. George W. Bush cut taxes and increased federal spending to fight the war on terror, and to fund his invasion and occupation of Iraq.

So, what are the differences between Reagan and Bush? Reagan understood his tax cuts were hurting the economy, and did a 180 turn and increased taxes – in spite of what Rush, Hannity, et al claim – while George W. Bush plowed straight ahead off the cliff.

Did Ronald Reagan cut taxes? Yes he did. But then he raised them. Two things to remember about the Gipper and his tax cuts:

First, Ronald Reagan oversaw the largest peacetime tax increase in American history.

Second, Ronald Reagan imposed the largest corporate tax increase in history.

Once again, Rush proves that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

 
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Posted by on May 5, 2009 in Economics

 

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Clinton Had Best Economy

In the past 50 days, if you listen to Rush, Hannity, et. al, the economy has been destroyed by President Obama and his wild, left-wing, radical socialist ideas! And these same pundits will try to claim that the country’s best economy was under President Reagan. What is the basis for Rush, Hannity’s, everyone else from the right-wings, assessment? The stock market!

However, if anyone would bother to actually check the facts, the best, longest sustained economic growth in the past 100+ years was not under Reagan, but under President Clinton. Not during a time of tax cuts, and incentives for the most wealthy among us, but at a time of “wild, left-wing, radical socialist ideas!”

Using the stock market as our basis of facts, the Dow gained 8,500 points during the Clinton years, as compared to 1,500 under Reagan. One of the worse drops ever in the Dow came under George W. Bush, when the Dow slid 4,000 points. However, by the time Bush left office the Dow had posted a 3,000 point gain during his presidency.

NASDAQ gained a mere 350 points under Reagan, but soared more than 4,000 points under Clinton. By the end of the Bush presidency it had plummeted 2,200 points; the only time in the past 60 years when it had ended lower than it started during a presidency.

The S&P 500 gained 300 points during Reagan’s time in office. Under Clinton it shot up 1,000 points, but once again under Bush it posted basically no true gain, the first time since the Nixon/Ford presidency.

But wait a minute! Bush had 9-11, and that screwed up the economy! That could have been used as an excuse, but, unfortunately the markets were already plunging before the attack. Now certainly 9-11 helped shove the markets further into the hole, but just as soon as the economy started to right itself, what did “W” do? Invaded Iraq. War, in spite of the right-wing assertions to the contrary, doesn’t truly aid the economy, it tends to stagnate it, then depress it, and finally there is growth afterwards.  Case in point; the NASDAQ makes a sharp climb in 2003, rising more than 1,000 points, until Bush decides to invade Iraq. The result? Initially, the NASDAQ takes a hit, and then only slowly recovers.

More evidence you say? During the Vietnam War the nation’s economy made slow to almost no growth. FDR’s policies took the DOW from 42.80 in 1932 to 187.17, but then there is a 90 point drop from 1936 to 1938. The reason you ask? The rumblings of another war in Europe, beginning with the start of Hitler’s aggressive moves into the Rhineland, and coupled with the start of the Spanish Civil War. The Dow climbs again, back to around 140, until? The attack on Pearl Harbor! The Dow declines to around 90, until in early 1942 it climbs back to around the 140 to 150 mark. Why? Because the United States begins to win against the Japanese, ever heard of the Battle of Midway? But there isn’t this huge boom the right-wing always suggests. The boom out of the Great Depression had already occurred.

Under Truman the Dow rises to around 250, and is climbing when Eisenhower is elected. It continues to rise until the war in Vietnam slows the economy under LBJ and Nixon.

The Dow takes a hit right around 1970. Any guesses why? Because of self-destruction of the Republican Presidency, brought on by the bungled break in of the Democratic Headquarters in the Watergate Building, and coupled with the inevitable post-war recession from the ending of the Vietnam War. Thanks Dick.

The markets (Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) make a brief rally under Ford, and even under Carter, but then begin to dip and eventually stagnates at the end of Carter’s term. Why? The Iran Hostage Crisis, along with soaring oil prices, and lukewarm leadership.

Finally it begins a sharp climb under Reagan rising more than 1,500 points, only to plunge when George Bush is elected, with little growth during his four years. Remember Desert Storm? Somalia? More lukewarm leadership?

Under Clinton the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rocket up, only to be stagnated by the Bush administration. Gee, I don’t know, maybe 9-11, invading Iraq, torturing prisoners, usurping the Bill of Rights?

There are only two Presidents in the past 60 years who have managed to place the economy into a truly vegetative state, Carter and George W. Bush. Both will probably go down in history as the most inept, most bungling presidents ever.

One more point about the current drop – the one President Obama inherited from “W”. The market has had a dip after every presidential election for at least the last 60 years, both republican and democrat. The current plunge began during the summer of 2007, under the Bush Administration.

So, what does this all mean? Look, I’m just an average “Joe” American, a soldier turned school teacher by trade, but I can read charts, and I can look into what has happened historically, and from what I’ve read, Rush, Hannity, O’Reilly, Ingram, Palin, McCain, etc., are all a bunch of liars. The economy has always shown the most growth during peace time. It has shown the most growth when the taxes were not cut, but increased on the wealthiest class. Sorry Hannity, but facts are facts, our nation’s economy skyrocketed under Clinton, with all of his so-called horrible tax increases, the same increase that President Obama is looking to put back into place. Why don’t you take the time to do some research next time?

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2009 in Economics

 

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