Tag Archives: Mitt Romney
Private Sector is Doing Fine – 26 Oct 12 Edition
“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama
“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney
Since the above exchange between the President and Willard the following indicators the private sector is indeed “doing fine”, info comes from FOX Business:
First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion, Microsoft reported $16 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.7 billion …
In the second quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion and AT&T reported $31.6 billion
Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion; Wells Fargo reported $21.2 billion; J.P. Morgan Chase reported $25.9 billion; Citigroup reported $19.4 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $17.1 billion, Goldman Sachs reported $8.35 billion, Coca-Cola reported $12.34 billion, IBM reported $24.7 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Bank of America reported $20.4 billion, American Express reported $7.9 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7.6 billion, Travelers reported $6.51, Google reported $11.3 billion, McDonald’s reported $7.2 billion, Caterpillar reported $16.45 billion, Yahoo! Reported $1.09 billion, Texas Instruments reported $3.39 billion, United Parcel Service reported $13.07 billion, 3M reported $7.5 billion, AT&T reported $31.5 billion, Boeing reported $20 billion, Merck reported $11.49 billion,
Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion, Apple reported $36 billion,
The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.
The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose 5.7% in September to a 389,000-unit annualized rate, topping estimates of a 385,000-unit rate and marking the highest reading since April 2010.
U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors reported its index of pending home sales rose 0.3% in September from August, the index climbing 14.5% from a year ago.
U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.
Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.
The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.
The Commerce Department reports housing starts rose 15% to an annualized rate of 872,000 units in September from August. Housing permits jumped 11.6% to an annualized rate of 894,000 units.
The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in September from August, more than the 0.8% expected. Excluding the auto component, sales were up 1.1%, the biggest rise since January and topping estimates of 0.6%.
The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.
The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.
The Commerce Department reported orders for long-lasting goods climbed 9.9% in September from August, topping estimates of a 7.1% increase.
A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.
Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.
A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ that didn’t pass Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 339,000 during the third week of October from an upwardly revised 369,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000 from an initially reported 367,000.
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 369,000 during the fourth week of October from an upwardly revised 392,000 the week prior.
U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September from August, topping estimates of 0.7%. Export prices rose 0.8%, coming in ahead of estimates of 0.4%.
Producer prices rose 1.1% in September from August, a bigger jump than the 0.7% expected.
A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for the month of October checked in at 83.1, up from a September reading of 78.3 and marking the highest reading since September 2007, according to a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting sentiment to decrease to 78.
A preliminary reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter and slightly above estimates of 1.9%.
Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13,103.68 on 25 Oct 12
Who’s out of touch Mitt?
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 23 Oct 12 Edition
We’re down to a scant two (2) weeks – 14 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s reeling from the smack down he took in New York coupled with the thumping he received in Florida last night, including the fact we’re all out of horses and bayonets; can he recover from such a pummeling by the President of the United States? Sure he can because “everyone loves Mitt” – said nobody ever.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?
The ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12 has the President with a 52% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 50%. So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 17 – 22 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 45
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
Gallup Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 22 Oct 12:
Romney 51/President Obama 46
ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of registered voters conducted from 18 – 21 Oct 12:
Romney 48/President Obama 45
CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 20 Oct 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 46
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 17 – 20 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
WashTimes/JZ Analytics* poll of likely voters conducted from 18 – 20 Oct 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 50.1/42.6 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 318/220:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 23 Oct 12.
Obama 327/211
Obama 316/222
Obama 284/254
Obama 303/235
Obama 299/239
Romney 292/246
Romney 282/256
Romney 279/259
Romney 298/240
Romney 286/252
Of 10 simulations President Obama and Romney split even at five apiece.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 55/45; while Democrats will be picking up at least 13 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 230/205.
Private Sector is Doing Fine – 19 Oct 12 Edition
“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama
“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney
Since the above exchange between the President and Willard the following indicators the private sector is indeed “doing fine” as indicated from the following supplied by FOX Business:
First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion, Microsoft reported $16 billion
In the 2nd Quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion and AT&T reported $31.6 billion
Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion; Wells Fargo reported $21.2 billion; J.P. Morgan Chase reported $25.9 billion; Citigroup reported $19.4 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $17.1 billion, Goldman Sachs reported $8.35 billion, Coca-Cola reported $12.34 billion, IBM reported $24.7 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Bank of America reported $20.4 billion, American Express reported $7.9 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7.6 billion, Travelers reported $6.51, Google reported $11.3 billion, McDonald’s reported $7.2 billion,
Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion
The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.
The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.
U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.
U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.
Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.
The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.
The Commerce Department reports housing starts rose 15% to an annualized rate of 872,000 units in September from August. Housing permits jumped 11.6% to an annualized rate of 894,000 units.
The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in September from August, more than the 0.8% expected. Excluding the auto component, sales were up 1.1%, the biggest rise since January and topping estimates of 0.6%.
The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.
The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.
A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.
Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.
A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ that didn’t pass Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 339,000 last week from an upwardly revised 369,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000 from an initially reported 367,000.
U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September from August, topping estimates of 0.7%. Export prices rose 0.8%, coming in ahead of estimates of 0.4%.
Producer prices rose 1.1% in September from August, a bigger jump than the 0.7% expected.
A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for the month of October checked in at 83.1, up from a September reading of 78.3 and marking the highest reading since September 2007, according to a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting sentiment to decrease to 78.
Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13,447.84 on 18 Oct 12
Who’s out of touch Mitt?
Limbaugh claims Candy Crowley committed an ‘act of journalistic malpractice’?
So Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney has his lunch handed to him on national television by the President of the United States and uber-right wing radio blowhard Rush “Rusty” Hudson Limbaugh III’s assessment is debate moderator Candy Crowley was biased towards President Obama
Rusty was especially outraged over Crowley’s fact-check of Mitt Romney on Libya, and bellowed she “kept feeding” Obama lines and interrupted Romney a total of twenty-eight times.
“In the real world, she would’ve committed career suicide last night,” he bloviated. “In the real world — in the media world I grew up in, her career would be finished.”
But wait, Rusty wasn’t finished, “She committed an act of journalistic terror or malpractice last night. If there were any journalist standards, what she did last night would have been the equivalent of blowing up her career like a suicide bomber. But there aren’t any journalist standards anymore. And she’s going to be praised and celebrated, probably even get a raise, give her another half hour on that show she hosts.”
In what world of reality is Rush Limbaugh qualified to comment on someone’s journalistic standards? First of all, one would need to have standards in order to judge someone else’s, and secondly, well, one would need to have standards in order to judge someone else’s.
He’s got binders full of women, well not really
During last night’s presidential debate, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) footnote Willard Mitt Romney boasted how as governor of Massachusetts, he was so frustrated by the lack of qualified women for positions in his cabinet he sent women’s groups out to actively recruit them.
“I went to a number of women’s groups and said, ‘Can you help us find folks?’ and they brought us whole binders full of women,” he said.
There’s just one small problem with Willard’s story, it’s not true. According to news sources, a bipartisan coalition of women’s groups known as MassGAP approached Romney and his Democratic challenger Shannon O’Brien before the 2002 gubernatorial election and pressured each to sign a pledge to appoint more women if elected.
Liz Levin, chairwoman of MassGAP at the time, reportedly told reporters during the 2002 governor’s race, the group spent months identifying, vetting and collecting resumes of qualified women for the high-level appointments.
“They told us … that they were going to send [the binders] to us,” O’Brien recalled in a Wednesday interview with The Huffington Post. “Whoever won was going to get this.”
Carol Hardy-Fanta, former co-chair of MassGAP’s higher education subcommittee agreed with that assessment, “He didn’t go out looking for these binders,” she said.
So, what’s the problem?
Well, Willard said during last night’s debate he initiated the search, “I went to my staff, and I said, how come all the people for these jobs are — are all men?
“They said, well, these are the people that have the qualifications. And I said, well, gosh, can’t we — can’t we find some — some women that are also qualified?
“And — and so we — we took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that could be qualified to become members of our cabinet. I went to a number of women’s groups and said, can you help us find folks? And I brought us whole binders full of — of women.”
Once more Willard reached into his past and pulled out a half-truth, a prevarication, a lie. He didn’t initiate the search. He didn’t think to himself, “Gee, we need more women.” He’s a fraud, and he thinks women are too dumb to see he’s a fraud. Problem for Romney is he thinks he’s starring in an episode of Mad Men and “dames” just won’t catch on.
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 16 Oct 12 Edition
Three (3) weeks – 21 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney will debate President Obama in round three of the presidential/vice presidential debates; round one went to Romney, and round two (VP debate) went to Vice President Biden, but who will win round three? Romney has two choices, continue the 180 charade (no doubt the President will be prepared for that) or return to uber-right wing Mitt (what the President was prepared for before Denver). It may prove he should’ve pulled the 180 switch tonight, meaning he shot his wad too soon – which does not have its origin in sexual connotations. The real question is which President Obama will show up; the election is his to lose not Romney’s to win. Tonight’s debate is in a town hall format, which should favor the President, one thing’s for sure, the President can’t allow the challenger to set the tone as he did in Denver.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?
The Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 11 Oct 12 has the President with a 53% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 51%. So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 10 – 13 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 46
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 8 – 14 Oct 12 had different numbers:
President Obama 47/Romney 49
IBD/TIPP Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 9 – 14 Oct 12:
President Obama 47/Romney 47
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of registered voters conducted from 7 – 11 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of registered voters conducted from 8 – 10 Oct 12:
President Obama 46/Romney 47
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12:
President Obama 45/Romney 49
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.5/42.7 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235.
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 16 Oct 12
Obama 305/233
Obama 295/243
Obama 317/221
Obama 279/259
Obama 321/217
Obama 294/244
Obama 287/251
Romney 283/255
Romney 299/239
Romney 280/258
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
As to the status of the United States Congress, according to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54-46; while Democrats will be picking up at least 13 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 229/206.
Private Sector is Doing Fine – 12 Oct 12 Edition
“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama
“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney
Since the above exchange between the President and Willard the following indicators the private sector is indeed “doing fine”:
Fiscal First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion
In the 2nd Quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion, AT&T reported $31.6 billion
Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion; Wells Fargo reported $21.2 billion; J.P. Morgan Chase reported $25.9 billion
Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion
The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.
The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.
U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.
U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.
Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.
The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.
The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.
The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.
The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.
A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.
Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.
A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ that didn’t pass Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)
New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 339,000 last week from an upwardly revised 369,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to rise to 370,000 from an initially reported 367,000.
U.S. import prices rose 1.1% in September from August, topping estimates of 0.7%. Export prices rose 0.8%, coming in ahead of estimates of 0.4%.
Producer prices rose 1.1% in September from August, a bigger jump than the 0.7% expected.
A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for the month of October checked in at 83.1, up from a September reading of 78.3 and marking the highest reading since September 2007, according to a report from Reuters and the University of Michigan. Economists were expecting sentiment to decrease to 78.
Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13,328.85 on 12 Oct 12
Who’s out of touch Mitt?
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 9 Oct 12 Edition
Just four (4) weeks – 28 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney seems to have found a slight bounce from his “performance” during the Denver Presidential Debate where there was lots of energy but very little substance or facts (27 lies in 38 minutes worth). Of course conservative pundits galore have been exalting how this was the big turnaround, the moment when Mitt saved his candidacy – and conservative pollsters are of course showing a huge bounce, while other polling groups show next to nothing, or nothing; this “bounce” is however a façade and it won’t hold up. Romney’s campaign’s a walking, talking straw man looking for a lit torch; lots of words, no substance and highly combustible.
Two days to the vice-presidential debate and it’s sure to be a knock down affair as the running mates are turned loose on each other; who will win? Ryan and Biden both are exceptional, passionate speakers; The Vice President’s prone to putting his foot in his mouth while his opponent – it appears – couldn’t find the truth with both hands and a flash light. Look for the Vice-President to come out swinging and to knock Ryan around.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?
Post debate favorability ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12, showed the President with a 55% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 47%. Whatever “bounce” Romney may have garnered from his “performance” in Denver, it didn’t really help is favorability – no big surprise; when you act like a spoiled bully you’re going to be perceived as a spoiled bully.
So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent Gallup Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 8 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 49
Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 7 Oct 12 had different numbers:
President Obama 50/Romney 45
Quite a turnaround in a single day of polling, and begs the question, “What’s up at Gallup”?
According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …
Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12:
President Obama 45/Romney 49
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 4 Oct 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 48
CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12:
President Obama 50/Romney 47
ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 47
Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 47
FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:
President Obama 48/Romney 43
Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:
President Obama 49/Romney 43
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.1/43.5; after mediocre debate performances and a disastrous VP pick, SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.
So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls, Willard Mitt Romney defeats President Obama in the general election.
According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 9 Oct 12
Obama 328/210
Obama 341/197
Obama 346/192
Obama 293/245
Obama 293/245
Obama 288/250
Obama 332/206
Romney 271/267
Romney 280/258
Obama 337/201
Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney eight times and usually by very comfortable margins; the two Romney wins are very marginal with absolutely no room for error.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 56-44; while Democrats will be picking up at least 14 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 229/206.
Private Sector is Doing Fine – 5 Oct 12 Edition
“The private sector is doing fine” ~ President Obama
“I think he’s really defining what it means to be out of touch with reality.” ~ Willard Mitt Romney
Since the above exchange between the President and Willard the following indicators the private sector is indeed “doing fine”:
Fiscal First Quarter reported earnings: FedEx posted $10.79 billion
In the 2nd Quarter the following earnings were reported by the private sector: Yahoo reported $1.08 billion, Facebook reported $1.2 billion, EBay reported $3.4 billion, Macy’s reported $6.12 billion, Travelers reported $6.36 billion, McDonald’s reported $6.92 billion, Morgan Stanley reported $7 billion, Best Buy reported $10.55 billion, Amazon.com reported $12.8 billion, Google reported $12.21 billion, United Parcel Service (UPS) reported $13.4 billion, Coca-Cola reported $13.09 billion, Intel reported $13.5 billion, Dell reported $14.5 billion, Pfizer reported $15.1 billion, Johnson & Johnson reported $16.5 billion, Microsoft reported $18.06 billion, Citigroup reported $18.4 billion, Procter & Gamble reported $20.2 billion, Bank of America reported $22.2 billion, IBM reported $25.8 billion, Verizon reported $28.6 billion, AT&T reported $31.6 billion
Following are third quarter earnings: Hewlett-Packard reported $29.7 billion
Following are fourth quarter earnings: News Corp. reported $8.4 billion, Cisco reported $11.7 billion
The private sector added 163,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP report. Analysts had been expecting an increase of 120,000.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls rose by 96,000 in August from July, less than the 125,000 expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3.
The Labor Department reports nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 in September from August, slightly ahead of estimates of 113,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8%, the lowest rate since January 2009, from 8.1% the month prior.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected.
The Conference Board’s reading on consumer confidence rose to 70.3 in September from an upwardly revised 61.3 in August, topping estimates for a reading of 63. The reading was the highest since February.
The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected.
Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Existing home sales rose 7.8% in August from July to an annualized rate of 4.82 million units, topping estimates of a 4.55-million unit rate and marking the fastest pace since May 2010.
U.S. pending home sales rose 2.4% in July from June, topping the 1% expected and hitting the highest level since April 2010. Sales were up 12.4% from a year ago.
U.S. housing starts jumped 6.9% in June from May to a 760,000-unit rate, topping estimates of a 745,000-unit rate and marking the highest rate since October 2008.
Housing starts rose 2.3% in August from July to a 750,000-unit rate, missing estimates of a 765,000-unit rate. Permits fell 1% to an 803,000-unit rate, but topped estimates of a 796,000-unit rate.
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.
The Commerce Department reported that building permits rose 6.8% to a rate of 812,000, the highest level in four years.
The Labor Department reported producer prices climbed 0.3% in July from June, the fastest pace in five months. Analysts expected an increase of 0.2%. Excluding the food and energy components, prices were up 0.4%, also more than the 0.2% increase forecast.
Retail sales climbed 0.8% in July from June, the largest increase since February and a bigger gain than the 0.3% economists expected.
The consumer sentiment reading of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment increased to 73.6 in early August from July’s final reading of 72.3. The August preliminary reading topped forecasts for an increase to 72.4 and marked the highest level since May.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in August from July, more than the 0.7% expected and the largest rise since February. Excluding the auto segment, sales were up 0.8%, topping estimates of 0.6%.
The broad S&P 500 struck its highest level since May 2008 on 21 Aug 12, while the Dow is sitting less than 60 points beneath its highest point since the end of 2007. Meanwhile, oil futures are jumping 1.5% as the U.S. dollar sinks to its lowest level since early July.
The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods rose 4.2% in July from June, blowing past estimates of a 2.4% increase. Excluding the transportation segment, orders were down 0.4%, missing estimates of a 0.5% gain.
A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists’ estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%.
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 2.3% in June from May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bigger gain than the 1.6% expected. Prices were up 0.5% from the same period a year earlier in the first increase since September 2010.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected.
Personal spending rose 0.4% in July from June, as expected, to the highest level since February. Personal income rose 0.3%, also as expected.
A final reading on consumer sentiment for the month of August checked in at 74.3, higher than a preliminary reading of 73.6, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July; the index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.5 in September from 49.6 in August, topping expectations for a reading of 49.7 and marking the first time the index rose above 50 since May. Readings above 50 point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. In spite of the Republican majority ‘do nothing congress’ that didn’t pass Obama’s Job’s Bill – (5 Oct 12)
Propelled by a surprising drop in the nation’s unemployment rate, stocks are solidly higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at its highest intraday level since December of 2007. The blue-chip barometer is up 85 points, or 0.6%, at 13660 and the other major stock indices are seeing similar percentage gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has moved up to 1.72% after the U.S. jobless rate fell to 7.8%.
Stock Market was 8077.56 on 19 Jan 09 and 13610.15 on 04 Oct 12
Who’s out of touch Mitt?
The Liberty Tree 