Seven (7) weeks – 49 days – to go and counting until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s managed to successfully change the campaign from the economy to foreign policy, admittedly that wasn’t what he meant to do, but he’s done it by chiming in (rather badly) on the unrest throughout the Middle East, once again proving he’s not in any way ready for the big time.
So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?
The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 13 – 16 Sep 12, showed the President with a 46% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 41%.
So, who’s more electable right now?
In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 12 – 16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 45
That’s three more than the 47% Romney insulted in his speech in Florida.
The most recent above mentioned Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13-16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:
President Obama 48/Romney 45
The most recent Gallup poll of registered voters conducted 8 – 15 Sep 12, if the election was held today:
President Obama 49/Romney 45
The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 8 – 12 Sep 12, if the election was held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 45
The most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 11 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 48/Romney 43
The most recent Esquire/Yahoo! News poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 10 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 46
The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:
President Obama 48/Romney 45
On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/45; SEN McCain would never lead in the polls again and SEN Obama went on to defeat him 52/44.
If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.
And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 332/206:
As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 18 Sep 12
Obama 313/225
Obama 298/240
Obama 312/226
Obama 300/238
Obama 316/222
Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 299/239
Obama 310/228
Obama 312/226
Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.
The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.
According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 52-48; while Democrats will be picking up at least 16 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House 226/209.
The Liberty Tree 