If the election were held today – based on available polling information – the President wins against either Romney or Santorum in landslides …
Tag Archives: 2012 Electoral Map
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – (pre-Arizona GOTP Debate) 22 Feb 12 Edition
Tonight the four horsemen meet again in the last debate before Super Tuesday; how will they behave? Will they all gang up on the President in one big Republican Tea Party (GOTP) group hug, or will they go after each other finally realizing they have to win the nomination first and then go after the President?
Maine’s primary still has yet to be decided (completely) with the GOTP infighting over what votes should or shouldn’t be counted – like leaving out whole counties which might not have voted for Mittens.
Tonight’s debate is designed to prime the pump of GOTP voters heading into the Arizona and Michigan primaries next week, and indicators are those races are completely up for grabs.
In Arizona’s Winner Take All Primary with 29 delegates – 28 Feb 12; the new CNN/Time poll of likely voters conducted 17 – 20 Feb 12: Romney 36; Santorum 32; Gingrich 18 and Paul 6 with 8% undecided. Those undecided voters could push Santorum to a win, or add to a Romney blow out, tonight’s debate performances will tell.
Michigan’s Hybrid Primary with 30 Delegates – 28 Feb 12; a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 20 Feb 12: Santorum 38; Romney 34; Paul 10 and Gingrich 9 with 9% undecided. This shouldn’t even be close for Romney, but it’s a clear indicator of how much he’s disliked amongst his own party.
Washington’s Non-Binding Caucus with 43 delegates – 3 Mar 12; a new PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 16 – 19 Feb 12: Santorum 38; Romney 27; Paul 15 and Gingrich 12 with 8% undecided.
Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)
Alaska’s Proportional Caucus with 27 delegates; no polling info …
Georgia Proportional Primary with 76 delegates; Insider Advantage poll of likely voters conducted 20 Feb 12: Gingrich 26; Romney 24; Santorum 23 and Paul 12 with 15% undecided. This clearly demonstrates Newt’s time has come and gone.
Idaho’s Non-Binding Caucus with 32 delegates; no polling info …
Massachusetts Proportional Primary with 41 delegates; Suffolk/7News poll of likely voters conducted 11 – 15 Feb 12: Romney 64; Santorum 16; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 and with 7% undecided.
North Dakota’s Non-Binding Caucus with 28 delegates; no polling info …
Ohio Proportional Primary with 66 delegates; Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 15 Feb 12: Santorum 42; Romney 24; Gingrich 13 and Paul 10 with 11% undecided.
Oklahoma Proportional Primary with 43 delegates; Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 8 – 16 Feb 12: Santorum 39; Romney 23; Gingrich 18 and Paul 8 with 12% undecided.
Tennessee’s Proportional Primary with 58 delegates; no polling info …
Nothing new with Vermont’s Hybrid Primary with 17 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided
Virginia Hybrid Primary (where only Romney and Paul are on the ballot) with 49 delegates; a new CNU/Times-Dispatch poll of likely voters conducted 4 – 13 Feb 12: Romney 53 and Paul 23 with 24% undecided.
Wyoming’s Non-Binding Caucus of 29 delegates; no polling info …
The regular season records for the gallant candidates: Santorum 4; Romney 3; Gingrich 1 and Paul 0 with Maine still unbelievably yet to be determined.
The GOTP Delegate Count to date is: Romney 90; Santorum 44; Gingrich 32 and Paul 13.
The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:
Romney 1,121,685
Gingrich 838,825
Santorum 431,926
Paul 307,975
Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 17 – 21 Feb 12: Santorum 35; Romney 27; Gingrich 15 and Paul 10 with 13% undecided.
So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 19 – 21 Feb 12; if the general election were held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 41
President Obama 46/Santorum 43
Latest Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 14 – 20 Feb 12;
President Obama 50/Gingrich 39
If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Rick Santorum would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.
But wait a minute, what’s the electoral map look like if the election were held today?
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 16 Feb 12 Edition
The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Santorum 4, Romney 3, Gingrich 1 and Paul 0; and Maine remains to be decided!
After Ricky pulled the trifecta, Mittens scrambled for a desperate win in Maine, and after some shenanigans by the state GOTO he maybe, kinda, sort of picked up a win; but hold the phone, there’s a lot of votes remaining to be counted and many more yet to be cast in the pine tree state, many of which may be for Ron Paul, and may give Uncle Ron his first primary win.
Michigan’s Hybrid Primary with 30 Delegates – 28 Feb 12; last Inside MI Politics/MRG poll of likely voters conducted 13 – 14 Feb 12: Santorum 43; Romney 33; Gingrich 11 and Paul 8 with 5% undecided.
There’s no new polling in Arizona’s Winner Take All Primary with 29 delegates – 28 Feb 12; the last Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 01 Feb 12: Romney 48; Gingrich 24; Santorum 13 and Paul 6 with 9% undecided.
Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)
Georgia Proportional Primary with 76 delegates; Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll of likely voters conducted 09 Feb 12: Gingrich 35; Santorum 26; Romney 16 and Paul 5 with 18% undecided.
Ohio Proportional Primary with 66 delegates; Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 15 Feb 12: Santorum 42; Romney 24; Gingrich 13 and Paul 10 with 11% undecided.
Oklahoma Proportional Primary with 43 delegates; Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 17 Nov – 16 Dec 11: Gingrich 33; Romney 14; Paul 4 and Santorum 2 with 47% undecided.
Massachusetts Proportional Primary with 41 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 18 Sep 11: Romney 50; Gingrich and Paul 5 and Santorum 1 with 44% undecided
Vermont Hybrid Primary with 17 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided
Virginia Hybrid Primary (where only Romney and Paul are on the ballot) with 49 delegates; Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 1 – 9 Feb 12: Romney 68 and Paul 19 with 13% undecided.
The Current GOTP Delegate Count is: Romney 90; Santorum 44; Gingrich 32 and Paul 13. Hopefully the state officials in Maine will figure it all out and figure it out soon allowing the voters to know who’s really in the lead moving into Arizona and Michigan.
The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:
Romney 1,119,283
Gingrich 838,344
Santorum 430,753
Paul 305,797
Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of registered voters conducted 14 Feb 12: Santorum 39; Romney 27; Gingrich 15 and Paul 10 with 9% undecided.
So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 13 – 15 Feb 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 43
President Obama 51/Gingrich 37
President Obama 47/Santorum 41
President Obama 44/Paul 39
If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Rick Santorum would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.
What’s the electoral map look like if the election were held today?
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 10 Feb 12 (pre-Maine Caucus Conclusion) Edition
The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Santorum 4, Romney 3, Gingrich 1 and Paul 0; CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!? Santorum pulled the trifecta – the hat-trick! He swept all three on Tuesday!
Ricky pulled the surprise upset in the Colorado Non-binding Caucus with 40.2% of the vote and 13 delegates; Romney got 34.9% of the vote picking up 6; Gingrich got 12.8% and picked up 2 delegates, while Paul polled 11.8% and won a whopping 1 delegate.
Ricky also dominated in the Minnesota Non-binding Caucus where he buried Mittens with 45% and 13 delegates. Romney actually placed third behind Ron Paul; Paul garnered 27.1% of the vote and 4 delegates; Mittens won 2 whole delegates with an astounding 16.9% of the vote; placing a dismal last was Newton Leroy who took 10.8% of the vote for 1delegate.
In Missouri’s Primary – which awarded no delegates; those will be decided later with caucuses – Rick surged to victory (sending the opposition packing) with 55.2% of the vote; Romney25.3% and Paul came in third with 12.2%. Gingrich – the dimwitted former Speaker – managed not to be on the Missouri ballot.
Maine’s – week long – Non-binding Caucus with 24 Delegates concludes tomorrow and the last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted way back in October is likely to be a lot closer – especially where Santorum’s concerned, charging hard from behind Romney.
Michigan’s Hybrid Primary with 30 Delegates – 28 Feb 12; last Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 01 Feb 12: Romney 38; Gingrich 23; Santorum 17 and Paul 14 with 8% undecided.
Arizona Winner Take All Primary with 29 delegates – 28 Feb 12; last Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 01 Feb 12: Romney 48; Gingrich 24; Santorum 13 and Paul 6 with 9% undecided.
Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)
Georgia Proportional Primary with 76 delegates; SurveyUSA poll of likely voters conducted 01 – 02 Feb 12: Gingrich 45; Romney 32; Santorum 9 and Paul 8 with 6% undecided.
Ohio Proportional Primary with 66 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 29 Jan 12: Gingrich 26; Romney 25; Santorum 22 and Paul 11 with 16% undecided.
Virginia Hybrid Primary (Where the FIX is in and only Romney’s on the ballot) with 49 delegates; Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 19 Dec 11: Gingrich 30; Romney 25; Paul 9 and Santorum 3 with 33% undecided.
Oklahoma Proportional Primary with 43 delegates; Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 17 Nov – 16 Dec 11: Gingrich 33; Romney 14; Paul 4 and Santorum 2 with 47% undecided.
Massachusetts Proportional Primary with 41 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 18 Sep 11: Romney 50; Gingrich and Paul 5 and Santorum 1 with 44% undecided
Vermont Hybrid Primary with 17 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided
The Current GOTP Delegate Count is: Romney 90; Santorum 44; Gingrich 32 and Paul 13. An interesting thought is if Gingrich and Paul were to step out and throw their delegates to Santorum, there’d be a real contest; but the same could be said if Santorum did the same for Newt; Paul is inconsequential as he’s not a serious contender – meaning he has a better chance of contracting small pox than of winning the GOTP nomination, and frankly Newt’s heading that way now too.
The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:
Romney 1,119,283
Gingrich 838,344
Santorum 430,753
Paul 305,797
Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of registered voters conducted 06 Feb 12: Romney 34; Gingrich 27; Santorum 18 and Paul 11 with 10% undecided.
So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 07 – 09 Feb 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 50/Romney 40
FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 06 – 09 Feb 12:
President Obama 51/Gingrich 38
President Obama 50/Santorum 38
President Obama 48/Paul 38
If the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mittens Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 03 Feb 12 (pre-Nevada Caucus) Edition
The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating circus continues, moving west young man, moving west! Willard Mittens Romney appears to be firmly ensconced behind the rubber wheel of the GOTP clown car.
The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Gingrich 1, Santorum 1, Romney 2 and Paul 0; clearly there are still issues as to whether the party wants Mitt, and if it will fall in line behind him should he eventually be the winner. Problem is, who would it run instead and how would it displace him?
Nevada Proportional Caucus with 28 Delegates – 4 Feb 12; a new PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 1 – 2 Feb 12: Romney 50; Gingrich 25; Paul 15 and Santorum 8 with 2% undecided.
Colorado Non-binding Caucus with 36 Delegates – 7 Feb 12; last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 1 – 4 Dec 11: Gingrich 37; Romney 18; Paul 6 and Santorum 4 with 38% undecided.
Minnesota Non-binding Caucus with 40 Delegates – 7 Feb 12; last PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 22 Jan 12: Gingrich 36; Romney 18; Santorum 17 and Paul 13 with 16% undecided.
The Maine Non-binding Caucus with 24 Delegates – 11 Feb 12; last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Oct 11: Romney 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 5 and Santorum 2 with 51% undecided.
Michigan Hybrid Primary with 30 Delegates – 28 Feb 12; last Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 01 Feb 12: Romney 38; Gingrich 23; Santorum 17 and Paul 14 with 8% undecided.
Arizona Winner Take All Primary with 29 delegates – 28 Feb 12; last Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 01 Feb 12: Romney 48; Gingrich 24; Santorum 13 and Paul 6 with 9% undecided.
Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)
Georgia Proportional Primary with 76 delegates; SurveyUSA poll of likely voters conducted 01 – 02 Feb 12: Gingrich 45; Romney 32; Santorum 9 and Paul 8 with 6% undecided.
Ohio Proportional Primary with 66 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 29 Jan 12: Gingrich 26; Romney 25; Santorum 22 and Paul 11 with 16% undecided.
Virginia Hybrid Primary (Where the FIX is in and only Romney’s on the ballot) with 49 delegates; Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 19 Dec 11: Gingrich 30; Romney 25; Paul 9 and Santorum 3 with 33% undecided.
Oklahoma Proportional Primary with 43 delegates; Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 17 Nov – 16 Dec 11: Gingrich 33; Romney 14; Paul 4 and Santorum 2 with 47% undecided.
Massachusetts Proportional Primary with 41 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 18 Sep 11: Romney 50; Gingrich and Paul 5 and Santorum 1 with 44% undecided
Vermont Hybrid Primary with 17 delegates; PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided
The Current GOTP Delegate Count is: Romney 65; Gingrich 23; Santorum 6 and Paul 3.
The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:
Romney 1,071,274
Gingrich 817,420
Santorum 378,567
Paul 278,567
Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 29 Jan – 02 Feb 12: Romney 33; Gingrich 25; Santorum 16 and Paul 11 with 15% undecided.
So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 41
President Obama 52/Gingrich 35
A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted 27 – 28 Jan 12:
President Obama 51/Santorum 43
President Obama 49/Paul 46
As crazy as it still looks, clearly, on the electability scale Paul is the candidate who comes closest to actually being able to beat the President; that being said, if the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Willard Mittens Romney would be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.
Speaking of the general election; the latest Electoral College figures are below, based on current available state polling, and once again, if the general election was held today these would be the results:
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 30 Jan 12 (pre-Florida Primary) Edition
After spinning wildly down the track following the South Carolina Primary, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) nominating circus, specifically the GOTP clown car, appears to be spinning back into Mitten’s favor; but can Romney pull out the nomination in the long run? Newton’s claiming he’s in it all the way to the convention – time will tell.
The current regular season records for the remaining four GOTP candidates are Gingrich 1, Santorum 1, Romney 1 and Paul 0; never have three separate candidates won the first three GOTP caucuses/primaries – NEVER; clearly the party doesn’t want Mitt, but can’t decide who it wants instead of him. Do they go with the crazy uncle in the attic, the over-the-top gay bashing brother, or the adulterer?
Concerning Florida’s Primary, a new Insider Advantage poll of likely voters conducted 29 Jan 12 has been released and the current poll results are: Romney 36; Gingrich 31; Paul 13 and Santorum 11 with 9% undecided.
There’s nothing new no new polls for the upcoming Nevada Caucus (4 Feb 12) where Romney led in the last Las Vegas Review-Journal poll of registered voters conducted 12 – 20 Dec 11: Romney 33; Gingrich 29; Paul 13 and Santorum 3 with 22% undecided.
The Maine Caucus’ (4 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Oct 11: Romney 24, Gingrich 18, Paul 5 and Santorum 2 with 51% undecided.
Colorado Caucus (7 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 1 – 4 Dec 11: Gingrich 37; Romney 18; Paul 6 and Santorum 4 with 38% undecided.
Minnesota Caucus (7 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 22 Jan 12: Gingrich 36; Romney 18; Santorum 17 and Paul 13 with 16% undecided.
Michigan Primary (28 Feb 12) last EPIC-MRA poll of likely voters conducted 21 – 25 Jan 12: Romney 31; Gingrich 26; Paul 14 and Santorum 10 with 19% undecided.
Arizona Primary (28 Feb 12) last PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 17 – 20 Nov 11: Gingrich 28; Romney 23; Paul 8 and Santorum 3 with 38% undecided.
Super Tuesday (6 Mar 12)
Georgia Primary Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters conducted 12 – 14 Dec 11: Gingrich 43; Romney 21; Paul 4 and Santorum 1 with 31% undecided.
Ohio Primary Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 16 Jan 12: Romney 27; Santorum 18; Gingrich 17 and Paul 10 with 28% undecided.
Virginia Primary (where only Romney is on the ballot – can you spell FIX?) Quinnipiac poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 19 Dec 11: Gingrich 30; Romney 25; Paul 9 and Santorum 3 with 33% undecided.
Oklahoma Primary Sooner Poll of registered voters conducted 17 Nov – 16 Dec 11: Gingrich 33; Romney 14; Paul 4 and Santorum 2 with 47% undecided.
Massachusetts Primary PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 18 Sep 11: Romney 50; Gingrich and Paul 5 and Santorum 1 with 44% undecided
Vermont Primary PPP (D) poll of registered voters conducted 28 – 31 Jul 11: Romney 26; Paul 7 and Gingrich 6 with 61% undecided
The Current GOTP Delegate Count is: Gingrich 23; Romney 13; Santorum 6 and Paul 3.
Nationally the GOTP Nomination according to the latest Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 25 – 29 Jan 12: Gingrich 28; Romney 27; Santorum 16 and Paul 13 with 16% undecided.
So, how does each of the Four Horseman of the GOPocalypse stack up against the President? The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters conducted 27 – 29 Jan 12, if the general election were held today:
President Obama 47/Romney 41
President Obama 52/Gingrich 35
A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted 27 – 28 Jan 12:
President Obama 51/Santorum 43
President Obama 49/Paul 46
As crazy as it looks, clearly, on the electability scale Paul is the candidate who comes closest to actually being able to beat the President.That being said, if the GOTP clown car had finally stopped spinning, and the general election was held today, Newton Leroy Gingrich would barely be the GOTP nominee, and he’d lose to President Obama in the general election.
Speaking of the general election; the latest Electoral College figures are below, based on current available state polling, and once again, if the general election was held today these would be the results:
Founding Fathers would have cracked down on pot?
Self proclaimed historian and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wannabe Newton Leroy Gingrich, said during a town hall-style appearance in Concord, that if elected (which is an ever expanding really big IF) he had no interest in exploring drug decriminalization, arguing such efforts haven’t worked in Europe, and of course as a conservative he’d base success rates of things off of Europe – which to conservatives has never succeeded in anything.
According to the Huffington Post, when a member of an audience later in the day argued the founding fathers had been far more lenient about marijuana than the current political class, Newton responded, “I think Jefferson or George Washington would have rather strongly discouraged you from growing marijuana and their techniques with dealing with it would have been rather more violent than our current government.” A comment which has no (as in zero) basis of fact to back it up, other than Newton being a conservative, and all conservative are born with an inherent understanding of what the Founding Fathers thought or would’ve thought on any subject from drug laws to potty training.
Of course the fact many of the Founding Fathers grew hemp (George Washington especially and Thomas Jefferson also included) was lost on Professor Gingrich, which today would’ve landed the grower in jail. Yeah, it’s easy to see how the Founding Fathers would’ve been harder than today’s authorities. This is once again nothing but right-wing FOX style hyper-bole based on utter and complete nonsense. As a presidential candidate Newt’s a joke, and as a historian he’s an ignoramus.
Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 2 Jan 12 (Iowa Caucus Eve) Edition
Concerning the ongoing GOTP nominating circus (Iowa Caucus Edition), a new Insider Advantage poll of likely voters conducted New Year’s Day has been released:
Romney holds on to a very narrow lead in Iowa as Santorum remains strong as surprising third; Romney 23; Paul 22; Santorum 18; Gingrich 16; Perry 10; Bachmann 6 and Huntsman 2
The interesting thought is, the last poll in Iowa pitting Romney against the President found Mittens the loser by 7 points; NBC News/Marist poll of registered voters conducted 27 – 29 Nov 11: President Obama 46/Romney 39. So, there’s lots of talk in Iowa from Romney and the other six political dwarves about how any of them can beat the President in 2012, but the polling state by state doesn’t come close to bearing out that prediction; in fact current polling on state levels show the President with 338 electoral votes (270 needed to win) and Romney with 200.
Map created at http://www.270towin.com/
Granted a lot can happen in the next 11 months, but if Romney wins the GOTP nomination he’s going to have to run to the center (flip) to win the general election, and the Tea Party portion of the GOTP isn’t going to support that; if he suddenly becomes a moderate again (flop) we may see a third party candidacy from Bachmann, Perry or any number of conservatives.
When Mitt starts trying to be a moderate candidate (flip) look for countless ads demonstrating that he’s a political chameleon – changing colors as needed to win – with no real core values whatsoever; Romney is not electable; he’s not likeable and he flip-flops more than a freshly landed trout; if he’s the candidate – barring a great depression style economic collapse – he loses, and he loses big.
The Liberty Tree 