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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 9 Oct 12 Edition

Just four (4) weeks – 28 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney seems to have found a slight bounce from his “performance” during the Denver Presidential Debate where there was lots of energy but very little substance or facts (27 lies in 38 minutes worth). Of course conservative pundits galore have been exalting how this was the big turnaround, the moment when Mitt saved his candidacy – and conservative pollsters are of course showing a huge bounce, while other polling groups show next to nothing, or nothing; this “bounce” is however a façade and it won’t hold up. Romney’s campaign’s a walking, talking straw man looking for a lit torch; lots of words, no substance and highly combustible.

Two days to the vice-presidential debate and it’s sure to be a knock down affair as the running mates are turned loose on each other; who will win? Ryan and Biden both are exceptional, passionate speakers; The Vice President’s prone to putting his foot in his mouth while his opponent – it appears – couldn’t find the truth with both hands and a flash light. Look for the Vice-President to come out swinging and to knock Ryan around.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

Post debate favorability ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12, showed the President with a 55% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 47%. Whatever “bounce” Romney may have garnered from his “performance” in Denver, it didn’t really help is favorability – no big surprise; when you act like a spoiled bully you’re going to be perceived as a spoiled bully.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the electorate) – the most recent Gallup Tracking poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 8 Oct 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 49

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 7 Oct 12 had different numbers:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

Quite a turnaround in a single day of polling, and begs the question, “What’s up at Gallup”?

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 7 Oct 12:

President Obama 45/Romney 49

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of registered voters conducted from 1 – 4 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 48

CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 49.1/43.5; after mediocre debate performances and a disastrous VP pick, SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52.1/44.5.

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls, Willard Mitt Romney defeats President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 9 Oct 12

Obama 328/210
Obama 341/197
Obama 346/192
Obama 293/245
Obama 293/245

Obama 288/250
Obama 332/206
Romney 271/267
Romney 280/258
Obama 337/201

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney eight times and usually by very comfortable margins; the two Romney wins are very marginal with absolutely no room for error.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 56-44; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 14 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 229/206.

 
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Posted by on October 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 2 Oct 12 Edition

Five (5) weeks – 35 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s trying to overcome his latest misstep, wondering aloud why windows can’t be rolled down on airplanes? Some suggest he was “only joking”; doesn’t matter, it was an obtuse thing to say, and it’s only added to the image that he’s not as bright as people think he is and that he’s – as Jon Stewart put it – “like Charlie from Flowers for Algernon, and the serum is wearing off”. Topping this off was Ann Romney’s startling declaration that her greatest concern for her husband was his “mental well-being”; not what you need your wife saying about you, but especially not what you need your wife saying about you when you’re running for the presidency.

So, there’s one day to the first debate and a plethora of pundits are claiming Romney can turn it all around tomorrow tonight because he’s had more than 20 debates this fall to help him prepare and he’s ready to go; yeah OK, but he’s not debating the misfits from the GOTP primaries, he’s debating the President f the United States, and from what Willard’s demonstrated thus far, I’d say the odds are nowhere near to being in his favor.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12, showed the President with a 50% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. For the second straight week the President’s favorables are above 50% while Romney’s continues to be the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history with unfavorables of 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 23-29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.

So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 3 Oct 12

Obama 318/220
Obama 308/230
Obama 297/241
Obama 286/252
Obama 297/241

Obama 316/222
Obama 303/235
Romney 272/266
Obama 347/191
Obama 281/257

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney nine times and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54-46; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 228/207.

 
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Posted by on October 2, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 25 Sep 12 Edition

Just six (6) weeks – 42 days – to go until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s spent the last week trying to convince voters he cares about 100% of the nation’s people in spite of being over heard in a recently released video, saying in a $50,000 per plate fund raiser that 47% of voters are freeloading losers who’re so dependent on government handouts they’ll never vote for him.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, showed the President with a 53% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. Romney’s the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history – no one has scored worse on favorability in over 30 years, not even Dukakis, Carter or Dole.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

Associated Press/GfK poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 17 Sep 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

Hartford Courant/UConn poll of likely voters conducted 11 – 18 Sep 12:

President Obama 46/Romney 43

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13 – 16 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.

So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 25 Sep 12

Obama 316/222
Obama 312/226
Obama 303/235
Obama 335/203
Obama 322/216

Obama 319/219
Obama 283/255
Obama 333/205
Obama 293/245
Obama 347/191

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 53-47; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 227/208.

 
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Posted by on September 25, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 18 Sep 12 Edition

Seven (7) weeks – 49 days – to go and counting until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s managed to successfully change the campaign from the economy to foreign policy, admittedly that wasn’t what he meant to do, but he’s done it by chiming in (rather badly) on the unrest throughout the Middle East, once again proving he’s not in any way ready for the big time.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 13 – 16 Sep 12, showed the President with a 46% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 41%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 12 – 16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

That’s three more than the 47% Romney insulted in his speech in Florida.

The most recent above mentioned Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13-16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

The most recent Gallup poll of registered voters conducted 8 – 15 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 8 – 12 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

The most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 11 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

The most recent Esquire/Yahoo! News poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 10 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 46

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/45; SEN McCain would never lead in the polls again and SEN Obama went on to defeat him 52/44.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 18 Sep 12

Obama 313/225
Obama 298/240
Obama 312/226
Obama 300/238
Obama 316/222
Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 299/239
Obama 310/228
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 52-48; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 16 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House 226/209.

 
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Posted by on September 18, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 11 Sep 12 Edition

With eight (8) weeks to go until the November election there’s good news and bad news for Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney. The good news is he’s finally found his post convention “bounce”, and the bad news? President Obama’s got it. Following a mediocre Republican National Convention filled with all the usual FOX News talking points the Democratic National Convention finished high after three days of incredible speeches and multiple political home runs.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, showed the President with a 57% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the above mentioned CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 46

The most recent Gallup (Monday – 7 day tracking) poll of registered voters conducted from 3 – 10 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

As a comparison, the last Gallup Tracking poll prior to the DNC of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12 demonstrates clearly how the President’s poll numbers have indeed bumped higher by six points following the DNC:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most recent IBD/CSM/TIPP poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 44

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 27 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

On this day four years ago John McCain was leading in the polls 47.7/45.2 but the President went on to defeat McCain 52.1/44.5.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 11 Sep 12

Obama 314/224
Obama 337/201
Obama 287/251
Obama 287/251
Obama 285/253

Romney 270/268
Obama 288/250
Obama 313/225
Obama 326/212
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations Romney wins only one as the President beats him nine (9) times, and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

 
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Posted by on September 11, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 4 Sep 12 Edition

We’re now below the double digits with just nine (9) weeks left until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s searching desperately for his “bump” from the “reinvention convention” as we move into the Democratic National Convention. It says a lot about you as a candidate when you receive absolutely no bump from your convention.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, showed the President with a 41% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 31%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most recent Gallup – Monday (7-day tracking, meaning it began as the GOTP convention was opening), if the election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

The last Gallup Tracking poll prior to the convention of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12 demonstrated how Romney not only didn’t get a bounce but lost some traction:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 27 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

The most current ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 25 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

And finally, the most current CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 23 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 332/206:

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 4 Sep 12

Obama 287/251
Obama 319/219
Obama 313/225
Obama 284/254
Obama 282/256

Romney 282/256
Obama 287/251
Obama 313/225
Obama 313/225
Obama 309/229

Of 10 simulations Romney wins only one as the President beats him nine times usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

 
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Posted by on September 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 28 Aug 12 Edition

With ten (10) weeks to go until the November election Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s supposed to be receiving the accolades of the party faithful in Tampa, FL but instead the “reinvention convention’s” been delayed because of Hurricane Isaac, and he’s dealing with rumors New Jersey Gov Chris Christie was his first VP choice but turned it down because he believes Romney can’t win. Additionally, Romney’s having to confront the mess created by GOTP Senate candidates declaring no abortions under any circumstances, and woman can’t get pregnant from rape..

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, showed the President with a 41% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 31%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

The most recent Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most current ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 25 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most current CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 23 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent Associated Press/GfK poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 20 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

And finally, the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 20 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 44

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election, and according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 28 Aug 12

Obama 299/239
Obama 332/206
Obama 347/191
Obama 306/232
Obama 276/262

Obama 288/250
Obama 312/226
Obama 337/201
Obama 273/265
Obama 270/268

Of 10 simulations Romney wins zero as the President beats him most of the time by comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

 
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Posted by on August 28, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 21 Aug 12 Edition

Just eleven (11) short weeks to go until the November election and the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s trying to manage his usual amount of flip-flops and lies while “embracing” his new running mate, and yet distancing himself from him at the same time on almost every political subject under the sun from health care to taxes and budgets to woman’s issue; the honeymoon seems to have ended before it ever started, and Paul Ryan will likely go down as one of the most devastating VP selections by a major candidate ever, even to excel the abysmal choice of Sarah Palin in 2008.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 15 – 19 Aug 12, showed the President with a 45% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 40%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 15 – 19 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

The most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 8 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 45

And finally, the most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 5 – 7 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 40

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:


Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 21 Aug 12

Obama 286/252
Obama 279/259
Obama 282/256
Obama 292/246
Romney 277/261
Obama 325/213
Obama 341/197
Obama 322/216
Obama 300/238
Obama 285/253

Of 10 simulations Romney manages only one very close victory, while the President beats Romney 90% of the time and most of those by comfortable margins.

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Posted by on August 21, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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