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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 05 September 2016 Edition

Since our last polling update, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has travelled to Mexico City, further insulted the Mexican people and returned to Phoenix to give a speech insulting American Hispanics, and giving speeches to African Americans claiming they “have nothing to lose” by voting for him; proving once again he is clueless. The candidates move towards debates – unless Trump decides he is not willing to debate Hillary Clinton, which has been floated as a possibility.

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers show Trump in the decline.

Fox News 26 August – 01 September – Clinton 48/Trump 42
Economist/YouGov 27-29 August – Clinton 47/Trump 42
PPP (D) 26-28 August – Clinton 48/Trump 43
USA Today/Suffolk 24-29 August – Clinton 48/Trump 41
NBC News/SM 22-28 August – Clinton 48/Trump 42

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-05sep16

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a continuing reminder,

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump eight out of ten times.

Clinton 291/Trump 247
Clinton 341/Trump 197
Clinton 339/Trump 199
Clinton 328/Trump 210
Clinton 348/Trump 190

Clinton 230/Trump 308
Clinton 353/Trump 185
Clinton 253/Trump 285
Clinton 336/Trump 202
Clinton 294/Trump 244

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will still fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on September 5, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 27 August 2016 Edition

Since our last polling update, the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has had to fire his campaign manager, Paul Manafort, after it was discovered he has been on the payroll of a Vladimir Putin lackey, not surprising when we consider how pro-Putin Trump has been. Just more evidence of the GOP candidate’s overt ties to a potential enemy. Earlier Trump openly committed an act of sedition, when he asked Russian hackers to attack Hillary Clinton’s servers and find her missing emails. Trump has called for a Special Prosecutor to investigate the Clinton Foundation; shouldn’t we be asking for a Special Prosecutor to be appointed to investigate Trump’s ties to foreign governments?

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers show Trump in the decline.

Reuters/Ipsos 20-26 August – Clinton 42/Trump 35
Quinnipiac 18-24 August – Clinton 51/Trump 41
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 15-21 August – Clinton 50/Trump 42
Gravis Poll 15 August – Clinton 54/Trump 46

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-27Aug2016

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.
Clinton 307/Trump 231
Clinton 350/Trump 188
Clinton 349/Trump 189
Clinton 304/Trump 234
Clinton 322/Trump 216

Clinton 362/Trump 176
Clinton 288/Trump 250
Clinton 308/Trump 230
Clinton 267/Trump 271
Clinton 319/Trump 219

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will still fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on August 27, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 29 July 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump openly committed an act of sedition during the week, asking Russian hackers to attack Hillary Clinton’s servers and find her missing emails leaving leaders of both parties to question whether Trump should receive any intelligence briefings from the CIA, as he may not be entirely trustworthy.

Hillary Clinton has made history being named the Democratic Party’s nominee – the first woman nominated by a major political party in United States history. Sorry, Jill Stein does not count since the Green Party is definitely not a major party. Clinton has selected Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate, and the two parties have their champions.

decision 2016

Nationally, the polling numbers giving Trump a small post-convention bump are beginning to go soft.

Reuters/Ipsos 25-29 July – Clinton 40/Trump 35
LA Times/USC 22-28 July – Clinton 41/Trump 47
Economist/YouGov 23-24 July – Clinton 47/Trump 42
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 18-24 July – Clinton 46/Trump 45
CNN/ORC Poll 22-24 July – Clinton 48/Trump 45
Gravis Poll 21-22 July – Clinton 49/Trump 51

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-29July 2016

The Electoral Map is based on all current state polling data

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 294/Trump 244
Trump 279/Clinton 259
Clinton 278/Trump 260
Clinton 298/Trump 240
Clinton 300/Trump 238

Clinton 342/Trump 196
Clinton 330/Trump 208
Clinton 302/Trump 236
Clinton 308/Trump 230
Clinton 293/Trump 245

According to all current state polling data available, if all things remain constant, Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be a fade away as a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on July 29, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 22 July 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) candidate, Donald Trump, has declared only he can save America, and has emerged from the disaster which was the Republican National Convention. Between Ben Carson claiming Hillary Clinton is in league with Satan, wife Melania willfully committing plagiarism, and the crowd shouting for blood, calling for Hillary’s arrest and booing Ted Cruz from the stage, many Republican insiders are happy that he’s off to the slaughter and good riddance.

decision 2016

Trump has also anointed his running mate, Governor of Indiana Mike Pence, right-wing evangelical crazy, and politician in freefall who was about to lose his reelection bid after a series of horrendous decisions, including last year’s “religious freedom” exercise wherein he signed into law a bill allowing “Christian” businesses to discriminate against anyone they felt violated God’s law, but primarily same-sex couples.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is set to pick her running mate as she prepares for next week’s Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. Clinton and fellow Democrats spent the past week gleefully watching the Trump Coronation stumble from one miscue to the next.

Reuters/Ipsos 16-20 July – Clinton 40/Trump 36
Economist/YouGov 15-17 July – Clinton 45/Trump 41
NBC News/SurveyMonkey 11-17 July – Clinton 46/Trump 45
CNN/ORC Poll 13-16 July – Clinton 49/Trump 42
ABC News/Wash Post 11-14 July – Clinton 47/Trump 43

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-22 July 2016

As a reminder,
President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206 in 2012
Senator Barack Obama defeated Senator John McCain 365/173 in 2008
Governor Bill Clinton defeated President George HW Bush 370/168 in 1992
Governor Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter 489/49 in 1980
President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) defeated Senator Barry Goldwater 486/52 in 1964

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 328/Trump 210
Clinton 342/Trump 196
Clinton 271/Trump 267
Clinton 304/Trump 234
Clinton 290/Trump 248

Trump 298/Clinton 240
Clinton 282/Trump 256
Clinton 295/Trump 243
Clinton 273/Trump 265
Clinton 320/Trump 218

According to recent polling data available, if all things remain constant, odds are Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on July 22, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 28 June 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presumptive candidate, Donald Trump, is still in freefall after his disastrous visit to Scotland to announce the opening of his latest golf course there. He misjudged the entire BREXIT, and he also misjudged the GOP’s latest version of findings into Benghazi claiming Secretary Clinton slept through the attack.

decision 2016

On the Democratic side, Senator Elizabeth Warren is now openly campaigning with Hillary Clinton looking very much like a ticket, appearing together in Cincinnati, where Warren eviscerated Trump.

Nationally, the polling numbers are turning from dark to darkest for Trump very quickly – Hillary leads him nationally in some polls by double digits.

ABC News/Wash Post 20-23 June – Clinton 51/Trump 39
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 19-23 June – Clinton 46/Trump 41
Rasmussen Poll 20-21 June – Clinton 44/Trump 39
Reuters/Ipsos Poll 18-22 June – Clinton 44/Trump 34
CNN/ORC Poll 16-19 June – Clinton 47/Trump 42
Monmouth Poll 15-19 June – Clinton 49/Trump 41

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-28June 2016

Running election simulations, Clinton beats Trump nine out of ten times.

Clinton 288/Trump 250
Clinton 319/Trump 219
Clinton 302/Trump 236
Clinton 274/Trump 264
Clinton 273/Trump 265

Trump 270/Clinton 268
Clinton 338/Trump 200
Clinton 312/Trump 226
Clinton 300/Trump 238
Clinton 274/Trump 264

According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, odds are Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be – still – a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on June 28, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 25 June 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presumptive candidate, Donald Trump, visited Scotland this week to announce the opening of his latest golf course there, all during the UK referendum on leaving the EU. When he arrived he tweeted

trumpscotland

There’s only one small problem, Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. Trump proved once again why he is not ready for primetime.

decision 2016

On the Democratic side, it’s still all over – even though Bernie Sanders continues to refuse to throw the towel in. At least this week he finally said it didn’t look like he’d be the nominee, and he said he’s probably vote for Hillary over Trump. Bernie’s going from being a presence to being an embarrassment.

Nationally, the polling numbers are turning from light to dark for Trump very quickly – Hillary leads him nationally in some polls by double digits, and is leading him in, of all places, Kansas.

Rasmussen Poll 20-21 June – Clinton 44/Trump 39

Reuters/Ipsos Poll 18-22 June – Clinton 44/Trump 34

CNN/ORC Poll 16-19 June – Clinton 47/Trump 42

Monmouth Poll 15-19 June – Clinton 49/Trump 41

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-23Jun2016

According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump, Johnson, and Stein would all be footnotes in the history books.

 
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Posted by on June 25, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 18 June 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown bus is in freefall after having been driven off the cliff by its xenophobic misogynistic fascist driver, Donald Trump; the White House, the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives are all going down into the dark fissure of history. In other words, it appears the Republican Party is about to go the way of the Whigs.

decision 2016

On the Democratic side, it’s all over – in spite of what Bernie Sanders thinks. Hillary kicked his tail in California and this past week in D.C.

One week ago the single worst mass shooting in the last 100 years took place in Orlando and Trump’s first response was to tweet his loyal followers, thanking them for congratulating him on supposedly being right. It never crossed his mind the American people might like to hear him be a little presidential, his first instinct was to be narcissistic. And then the bus went through the guardrail.

Nationally, the polling numbers are turning from light to dark for Trump very quickly – Hillary leads him nationally in some polls by double digits and is leading him in, of all places, Kansas.

Rasmussen Poll 14-15 June – Clinton 44/Trump 39
Reuters/Ipsos Poll 11-15 June – Clinton 41/Trump 32
Bloomberg Poll 10-13 June – Clinton 49/Trump 37

2016-electoral-map-clinton-trump-18Jun2016-2

According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, odds are Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be a footnote in the history books.

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2016 Presidential Polls – 2 June 2016 Edition

The Republican Tea Party (GOTP) clown bus is still being controlled by its xenophobic fascist driver, Donald Trump, zigzagging from side to side along the road, crashing into guard rails, continuing to threaten to send the Republican Party into the abyss known as the dustbin of history.

decision 2016

Trump victory is still not an endorsement of conservatism in America; it is an indictment. The Party of Ronald Reagan has become the party of Mussolini.

On the Democratic side, with one week left in real primaries, we still have a race, well, sort of, Hillary Clinton has pretty well locked it up.

Nationally, the polls show a widening gap between the two:

A Quinnipiac poll from 24 to 30 May has:

Hillary Clinton 53%
Bernie Sanders 39%

While an ABC News/Washington Post Poll from 16 – 19 May show:

Clinton 56%
Sanders 42%

In upcoming state primaries (7 June), it does not look good for Sanders.

New Jersey – Quinnipiac Poll from 10 – 16 May had Clinton ahead of Sanders 54/40
New Mexico – Isidewith.com Polling shows Clinton over Sanders 62/38

California – Isidewith.com Polling shows Clinton over Sanders 58/42
KABC/SurveyUSA from 19 – 22 May has Clinton beating Sanders 57/39
NBC/WSJ/Marist from 29 – 31 May shows the race tightening with Clinton beating Sanders 49/47

The issue for Sanders is he needs to beat Clinton by 67% in all the remaining primaries to hope to pass Clinton in pledged delegates. That is not going to happen.

Sanders will likely win North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana – all to bring no real delegate counts to his badly trailing campaign.

Clinton leads Sanders 2,312/1,545 total delegates – counting superdelegates, which are delegates, whether BernBots like it or not. It is going to be a Clinton vs. Trump general election. In spite of what BernBots keep hoping, no, the FBI is still not going to remove Clinton from the race.

So, how does November look right now? According to all currently available state-by-state polling data, it looks like Clinton buries Sanders 347/191. For some perspective, President Obama defeated Mitt Romney 332/206.

2016 Electoral Map Clinton-Trump 1Jun16 - 2

Nationally, the polling numbers are:

Rasmussen Poll 31 May to 1 June – Clinton 39/Trump 38
Quinnipiac Poll  24-30 May – Clinton 45/Trump 41
NBC News/WSJ Poll 15-19 May – Clinton 46/Trump 43

According to recent polling data available, if the election were today, odds are Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, and Trump will be – God willing – a footnote in the history books.

If you are a Republican, fear for your Party; the lunatics – aka the Tea Party – are now clearly in charge of the asylum, and the future does not look very good for you, in fact, your party is starting to plunge off the cliff.

 
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Posted by on June 2, 2016 in 2016 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 6 Nov 12 Edition

Today’s the day…

With votes being cast how are the candidates faring in the polls as it all comes to a close?

The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 4 – 5 Nov 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 47

CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 49

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

IBD/TIPP poll of likely voters conducted from 3 – 5 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 49

Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 49

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.6/47.4

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 6 Nov 12

Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 305/233
Obama 322/216
Obama 301/237
Obama 311/227
Obama 276/262
Obama 300/238

Romney 293/245
Romney 273/265

According to today’s simulations President Obama has an 80% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 20%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 5 Nov 12 Edition

IT’S Finally here! Election Day Eve! And now we can all put out our stockings and wait for … oh, wait a minute…

So, with one day to go, how do the candidates stand up against each other?

The CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12 has President Obama with a 52% favorability compared to Willard Romney at 51% favorability rating, but, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than WeAskAmerica or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) or ARG (which only polls landline phone numbers, thus eliminating a huge portion of the liberal electorate) – the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 2 – 4 Nov 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 49

According to other recent polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 4 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 49

Pew Research poll of likely voters conducted from 31 Oct – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12

President Obama 48/Romney 47

Public Policy Polling poll of likely voters conducted from 1 – 3 Nov 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct to 2 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 29 Oct – 1 Nov 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 48

Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 27 – 31 Oct 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

RAND poll of likely voters conducted 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 28 – 30 Oct 12:

President Obama 46/Romney 46

CBS News/NY Times poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 47

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 25 – 28 Oct 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

So, if the general election was held today, according to the latest national polls it appears President Obama is edging out GOTP challenger Willard Mitt Romney in the general election 48.5/47.3

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 52.1/44.5 and ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 50.4/43.6

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers President Obama defeats Romney 303/235:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 4 Nov 12

Obama 338/200
Obama 284/254
Obama 326/212
Obama 273/265
Obama 278/260
Obama 313/225
Obama 288/250
Obama 305/233
Obama 323/215

Romney 284/254

According to today’s simulations President Obama has a 90% chance of winning compared with Romney’s 10%.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54/46; while Democrats will be  picking up at seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House at 225/210.

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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