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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 28 Aug 12 Edition

With ten (10) weeks to go until the November election Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s supposed to be receiving the accolades of the party faithful in Tampa, FL but instead the “reinvention convention’s” been delayed because of Hurricane Isaac, and he’s dealing with rumors New Jersey Gov Chris Christie was his first VP choice but turned it down because he believes Romney can’t win. Additionally, Romney’s having to confront the mess created by GOTP Senate candidates declaring no abortions under any circumstances, and woman can’t get pregnant from rape..

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, showed the President with a 41% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 31%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

The most recent Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most current ABC News/Wash Post poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 25 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most current CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 22 – 23 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent Associated Press/GfK poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 20 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

And finally, the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of registered voters conducted 16 – 20 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 44

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election, and according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 28 Aug 12

Obama 299/239
Obama 332/206
Obama 347/191
Obama 306/232
Obama 276/262

Obama 288/250
Obama 312/226
Obama 337/201
Obama 273/265
Obama 270/268

Of 10 simulations Romney wins zero as the President beats him most of the time by comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

 
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Posted by on August 28, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Romney Makes Birth Certificate Joke?

According to news reports, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential hopeful, Willard Mitt Romney made a joke about his birth certificate at a rally in Michigan while trying to make a connection – any connection – with his home state. Reportedly Willard said, “No one’s ever asked to see my birth certificate. They know that this is the place that we were born and raised.”

Wow, really? Maybe no one ever asked you because you’re not black, and you don’t have an Islamic surname name?

Of course Willard’s attempt at levity received enthusiastic applause from his audience, but then again these are the same kinds of people who cheered executions in Texas as well as the hypothetical death of a man with no health insurance during the GOTP primary debates.

The President’s campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said Romney was embracing the most extreme elements in the conservative movement.

“Throughout this campaign, Governor Romney has embraced the most strident voices in his party instead of standing up to them,” he said. “It’s one thing to give the stage in Tampa to Donald Trump, Sheriff Arpaio, and Kris Kobach. But Governor Romney’s decision to directly enlist himself in the birther movement should give pause to any rational voter across America.”

Romney claims he believes President Obama was born in the United States, “I think the citizenship test has been passed. I believe the president was born in the United States. There are real reasons to get this guy out of office,” he told Larry Kudlow in April 2011. “The man needs to be taken out of office but his citizenship isn’t the reason why.”

So, why make a lame joke about birth certificates then? Still trying to connect with the extreme right of the party perhaps? Worried they might vote for someone else? It was a brainless thing to do whatever the reason and makes him look desperate to everyone but his most ardent followers.

 
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Posted by on August 27, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 21 Aug 12 Edition

Just eleven (11) short weeks to go until the November election and the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s trying to manage his usual amount of flip-flops and lies while “embracing” his new running mate, and yet distancing himself from him at the same time on almost every political subject under the sun from health care to taxes and budgets to woman’s issue; the honeymoon seems to have ended before it ever started, and Paul Ryan will likely go down as one of the most devastating VP selections by a major candidate ever, even to excel the abysmal choice of Sarah Palin in 2008.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 15 – 19 Aug 12, showed the President with a 45% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 40%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 15 – 19 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

The most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 8 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 45

And finally, the most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 5 – 7 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 40

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:


Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 21 Aug 12

Obama 286/252
Obama 279/259
Obama 282/256
Obama 292/246
Romney 277/261
Obama 325/213
Obama 341/197
Obama 322/216
Obama 300/238
Obama 285/253

Of 10 simulations Romney manages only one very close victory, while the President beats Romney 90% of the time and most of those by comfortable margins.

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Posted by on August 21, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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President Obama challenges Willard Mitt Romney on Tax Returns?

According to the Associated Press (AP) President Obama’s keeping the pressure on Republican Tea Party (GOTP) rival Willard Mitt Romney on two fronts, launching a new TV ad defending his record on Medicare while continuing to challenge Willard to release at least five years of his tax returns.

Jim Messina, the President’s campaign manager, made the tax-disclosure offer to Willard’s top dog, Matt Rhoades saying he was taking the step because Romney “apparently fears the more he offers, the more our campaign will demand that he provide.”Romney’s wife, Ann, has repeatedly stated that concern in interviews, arguing that the more the couple releases, the more questions are asked, and so from her point of view the logical thing is to hide everything and let everyone’s imaginations run wild?

Willard has released part of his 2010 taxes – they’re incomplete – he’s pledged to release his 2011 returns, sometime later, and Messina’s offer said the President wants Romney to provide three more years of returns, and that’s all; so in total they’re asking for five years of returns.

While Democratic Senate Majority Leader, and fellow Latter-day Saint, Harry Reid has raised the question of whether there are years when Willard paid no taxes. Willard continues to mew he’s has paid at least 13 percent of his income in federal taxes every year for the past decade; that’s right folks a whole 13%, but of course we’ll have to trust him on this and simply take his word.

“I did go back and look at my taxes and over the past 10 years I never paid less than 13 percent,” Willard’s told reporters. “I think the most recent year is 13.6 or something like that. So I paid taxes every single year.”

And we have to believe him because there’s no proof being offered except what Mitt claims; as has always been the case, Willard can stop this story by simply releasing his taxes. To not do so implies there’s something to hide, something so potentially disastrous to his campaign he’d rather spend weeks if not the entire campaign dealing with this one issue, which in the long run will hurt him amongst the moderate voters, the ones he has to swing his way in order to win.

 
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Posted by on August 17, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 14 Aug 12 Edition

Twelve weeks to go until the November election and the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney’s decided to try to shake things up by selecting Tea Party (TP) darling Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate, and he’s still trying to dodge the need to release his tax records, but now it seems he’s required his VP candidates to release many years of tax records to his campaign before he could select them, nothing like hypocrisy on a grand level.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 7 – 8 Aug 12, showed the President with a 54% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the most current IBD/CSM/TIPP poll of registered voters conducted 3 – 10 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 39

The most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted 7 – 8 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 45

And finally, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters conducted 2 – 6 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 42

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

According to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

Results of 15 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 14 Aug 12

Obama 319/219
Obama 297/241
Obama 295/243
Obama/Romney 269/269
Obama 317/221

Obama 287/251
Obama 274/264
Obama 318/220
Obama 292/246
Obama 279/259

Romney 273/265
Obama 332/206
Obama 314/224
Obama 291/247
Romney 277/261

Of 15 simulations Romney manages only two victories and one tie, while the President not only beats Romney but beats him by a landslide more than half the time defeating Romney 12/3.

 
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Posted by on August 14, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Romney forced VP contenders to provide ‘Several’ Years of Tax Returns?

According to news sources, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wannabe, Willard Mitt Romney requested “several” years of tax returns from his potential running mates; a fact released by a senior adviser to the campaign and one which suggests those Willard was considering were required to reveal more financial documents than he’s been willing to, and reveling yet another level of abject hypocrisy from Romney.

While talking to reporters Saturday, senior adviser Beth Myers – allegedly in charge of the VP selection process – evidently declined to specify exactly how many years of tax returns were required, saying only that “several” were requested in yet another stumbling blunder of a Romney staffer, and one that will only serve to draw renewed attention to Romney’s unwillingness to release his own tax records. To date Willard’s released one year (2010) and that’s not a complete record, as well as a so-called “estimate for his 2011 taxes”; it was Romney’s father, George who while running for the republican nomination in 1968, released 12 years of income tax records.

According to the Huffington Post, former Minnesota GOTP governor Tim Pawlenty told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday’s “This Week,” that he’d submitted “a bunch of tax returns” to the Romney campaign as part of being vetted.

“Well, I don’t know the exact number, George, but I — you know, there were several years, I believe,” Pawlenty said.

Stephanopoulos didn’t let Pawlenty off so easily and further asked whether it was more than two years of returns, to which Pawlenty responded, “Well, we don’t get into the details of the vetting process, but I gave them a bunch of tax returns. I don’t remember the exact number of years.”

There’s no doubt whatsoever the choice to not release his tax records has hurt Romney’s chances in a big way, coupled with hundreds of millions squirreled away in off shore accounts it’s made him look as though he was hiding something; but to require a vice presidential pick to provide you with tax records in order to be vetted while you stubbornly refuse to provide the same to the American people – so as to be vetted – smacks of rank insincerity, double standards and duplicity and it’s very likely Willard’s going to continue paying – and paying big – for his obstinacy.

 
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Posted by on August 13, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Allen West says “Romney’s VP Pick Needs Military Experience” – like the kind he has?

Various news sources are saying soon-to-be one term Republican Tea Party (GOTP) Congressman Allen (Walter E. Kurtz) West told a group of young conservatives at the Young America’s Foundation’s National Conservative Student Conference that military experience is the most important trait that presumptive GOTP presidential nominee Willard Mitt Romney’s running mate must have.

“First time in 77 years there is a possibility that neither the sitting president and vice president, or the candidates for president and vice president have served in the military … and when I look at the number one title for president of the United States of America is commander in chief, that’s what concerns me,” Kurtz (West) said.

West (Kurtz) says Willard needs to fill the holes in his own resume with a running mate, especially a G.I. Joe type, All-American like himself?

“I think that whoever Governor Romney is as a presidential candidate, he has to do his own self-assessment, self-analysis and understand ‘where are my weaknesses,'” Kurtz (West) preached. “Therefore, the person that I have running with me as my ‘fox-hole buddy,’ if I want to put it in military terms, they have to be someone that shores up where I see my weakness are so we can be a really strong command team, leadership team.”

Reportedly, West (Kurtz) laughed when a student asked him to weigh in on a potential GOP vice presidential candidate, but then warmed to the subject of essentially nominating himself.

“Oh man, there are cameras on here,” Kurtz (West) said. The congressman then went on to tamp down any speculation that he himself was ever a potential pick. “I was never being considered,” he said (until I threw my own hat into the ring right now!).

Of course, the last person Romney – or any other GOTP nominee – needs on the ticket with them is a former military officer forced into retirement after discharging his weapon next to the head of a prisoner he had just told he was going to execute. West (Kurtz) is a loaded mouth waiting to discharge.

 
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Posted by on August 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Romney says, ‘I Have Paid Taxes Every Year; a Lot of Taxes.’

According to news reports, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presumptive presidential wannabe Willard Mitt Romney is insisting he’s paid taxes every year and is challenging Democratic Senate Majority Leader (and fellow Latter-day Saint) Harry Reid “to put up or shut up” with his accusations he hasn’t.

“Let me also say categorically: I have paid taxes every year. A lot of taxes. A lot of taxes,” Willard mewed to reporters in Nevada.

“Harry Reid really has to put up or shut up, alright? So Harry, who are your sources?” Romney whined, referring to the Senator’s claim a Bain Capital investor told him Willard hadn’t paid taxes in 10 years.

As the GOTP candidate has been continually pressured to release his tax records, and was asked yet again why he wouldn’t just release them rather than continue engaging in a back-and-forth with Senator Reid, Willard deflected saying people should visit his website to see his financial disclosure statements dating back to 2002 and his 2010 tax return.

“Go on the website, you’ll be surprised to see the amazing amount of data that’s associated with our campaign’s disclosure,” he said.

Yeah, about that; I went to the “website” and was surprised to see nothing at all regarding Willard’s tax records or financial disclosure, at least not easily found. Perhaps he was referring to his offshore website, the one in the Caymans?

Despite Romney’s whining about the unfair amount of taxes he’s allegedly paid, Senator Reid said it’s time for Willard to stop “insulting” the American public by refusing to release his tax returns.

“It’s hard to say which is more insulting to Americans’ intelligence, Mitt Romney’s tax plan or his refusal to show the American people what’s in his tax returns,” Reid said in a statement. “Romney seems to think he’s above the basic level of transparency and openness that every presidential candidate has lived up to since his father set the standard in 1968.”

“In short, Romney’s message to Nevadans is this: He won’t release his taxes, but he wants to raise yours.”

He accused Romney of being “the most secretive presidential candidate since Richard Nixon” and pointed out that even nominees overseen by the Senate Finance Committee have to produce more tax returns that Romney is willing to release.

“Forget about president — Mitt Romney couldn’t get confirmed as a cabinet secretary,” Reid said. “The contents of the one year of returns he has released would probably be enough to tank his nomination anyway: secret overseas bank accounts in Switzerland and the Cayman Islands, tax avoidance tricks and a lower tax rate than middle-class families pay.”

Whatever Senator Reid’s reasons for suddenly going after Romney on this issue it’s a political strategy which is a win/win for Democrats and a lose/lose more for Romney. If Romney continues to refuse to release his taxes the furor won’t go away and it won’t lessen in intensity. This began back during the GOTP primaries when his opponents – fellow conservatives – went after him on his tax records.

To not release makes him look elitist, out of touch and possibly hiding something very messy. To release could affect his campaign by some embarrassing fact like he paid less in taxes than average Americans. We already know that, its old news. Politically this is not a smart play. Romney should remember Nixon’s famous “Checker’s Speech”; he should release the records declare what’s in them, especially if there’s anything that could draw fire, and move on. Get the splinter removed before it festers and becomes the equivalent of political blood poisoning. Or, just keep arguing about how “it’s not required by law”, and “I have a right to privacy” blaah, blaah, blaah …

 
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Posted by on August 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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