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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 2 Oct 12 Edition

Five (5) weeks – 35 days – until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s trying to overcome his latest misstep, wondering aloud why windows can’t be rolled down on airplanes? Some suggest he was “only joking”; doesn’t matter, it was an obtuse thing to say, and it’s only added to the image that he’s not as bright as people think he is and that he’s – as Jon Stewart put it – “like Charlie from Flowers for Algernon, and the serum is wearing off”. Topping this off was Ann Romney’s startling declaration that her greatest concern for her husband was his “mental well-being”; not what you need your wife saying about you, but especially not what you need your wife saying about you when you’re running for the presidency.

So, there’s one day to the first debate and a plethora of pundits are claiming Romney can turn it all around tomorrow tonight because he’s had more than 20 debates this fall to help him prepare and he’s ready to go; yeah OK, but he’s not debating the misfits from the GOTP primaries, he’s debating the President f the United States, and from what Willard’s demonstrated thus far, I’d say the odds are nowhere near to being in his favor.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12, showed the President with a 50% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. For the second straight week the President’s favorables are above 50% while Romney’s continues to be the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history with unfavorables of 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted from 28 – 30 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 23-29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

ABC News/Wash Post poll of likely voters conducted from 26 – 29 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 27 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

FOX News poll of likely voters conducted from 24 – 26 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

Bloomberg poll of likely voters conducted from 21-24 Sep 12:

President Obama 49/Romney 43

Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.

So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 3 Oct 12

Obama 318/220
Obama 308/230
Obama 297/241
Obama 286/252
Obama 297/241

Obama 316/222
Obama 303/235
Romney 272/266
Obama 347/191
Obama 281/257

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney nine times and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 54-46; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 228/207.

 
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Posted by on October 2, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on September 29, 2012 in Humor

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 25 Sep 12 Edition

Just six (6) weeks – 42 days – to go until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s spent the last week trying to convince voters he cares about 100% of the nation’s people in spite of being over heard in a recently released video, saying in a $50,000 per plate fund raiser that 47% of voters are freeloading losers who’re so dependent on government handouts they’ll never vote for him.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President this week?

The last favorability Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, showed the President with a 53% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 46%. Romney’s the most disliked presidential candidate in recent history – no one has scored worse on favorability in over 30 years, not even Dukakis, Carter or Dole.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent Politico/GWU/Battleground poll of likely voters conducted from 16 – 20 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 47

According to other recent viable polls, if the general election was held today …

Gallup Tracking poll of registered voters conducted from 17 – 23 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 46

National Journal poll of likely voters conducted from 15-19 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 43

Associated Press/GfK poll of registered voters conducted 13 – 17 Sep 12:

President Obama 47/Romney 46

Hartford Courant/UConn poll of likely voters conducted 11 – 18 Sep 12:

President Obama 46/Romney 43

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13 – 16 Sep 12:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/44; SEN McCain would never lead again in the polls ultimately losing to SEN Obama by a margin of 52/44.

So, if the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 25 Sep 12

Obama 316/222
Obama 312/226
Obama 303/235
Obama 335/203
Obama 322/216

Obama 319/219
Obama 283/255
Obama 333/205
Obama 293/245
Obama 347/191

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 53-47; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House, but just barely at 227/208.

 
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Posted by on September 25, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 18 Sep 12 Edition

Seven (7) weeks – 49 days – to go and counting until the November election and Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential footnote Willard Mitt Romney’s managed to successfully change the campaign from the economy to foreign policy, admittedly that wasn’t what he meant to do, but he’s done it by chiming in (rather badly) on the unrest throughout the Middle East, once again proving he’s not in any way ready for the big time.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted from 13 – 16 Sep 12, showed the President with a 46% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 41%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right – usually by five or more points) – the most recent NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll of likely voters conducted from 12 – 16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

That’s three more than the 47% Romney insulted in his speech in Florida.

The most recent above mentioned Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of likely voters conducted 13-16 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

The most recent Gallup poll of registered voters conducted 8 – 15 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 45

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 8 – 12 Sep 12, if the election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 45

The most recent FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 9 – 11 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 43

The most recent Esquire/Yahoo! News poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 10 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 50/Romney 46

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election was held today:

President Obama 48/Romney 45

On this day four years ago SEN Obama led SEN McCain in the polls 47/45; SEN McCain would never lead in the polls again and SEN Obama went on to defeat him 52/44.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 332/206:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 18 Sep 12

Obama 313/225
Obama 298/240
Obama 312/226
Obama 300/238
Obama 316/222
Obama 292/246
Obama 318/220
Obama 299/239
Obama 310/228
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations the President beats Romney every time and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

According to polling data available if the election was held today the Democratic Party would retain its majority in the United States Senate 52-48; while Democrats will be  picking up at least 16 seats in the House of Representatives, the GOTP would retain control of the lower House 226/209.

 
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Posted by on September 18, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 11 Sep 12 Edition

With eight (8) weeks to go until the November election there’s good news and bad news for Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential wanna-be Willard Mitt Romney. The good news is he’s finally found his post convention “bounce”, and the bad news? President Obama’s got it. Following a mediocre Republican National Convention filled with all the usual FOX News talking points the Democratic National Convention finished high after three days of incredible speeches and multiple political home runs.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

The last favorability CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted from 7 – 9 Sep 12, showed the President with a 57% favorability rating compared to Romney’s 48%.

So, who’s more electable right now?

In the most recent viable’ national poll(s) – which are any group other than the Washington Times or Rasmussen (which are generally always skewed not just to the right, but far to the right) – the above mentioned CNN/Opinion Research poll of likely voters conducted 7 – 9 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 52/Romney 46

The most recent Gallup (Monday – 7 day tracking) poll of registered voters conducted from 3 – 10 Sep 12, if the election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 44

As a comparison, the last Gallup Tracking poll prior to the DNC of registered voters conducted 20 – 26 Aug 12 demonstrates clearly how the President’s poll numbers have indeed bumped higher by six points following the DNC:

President Obama 46/Romney 47

The most recent IBD/CSM/TIPP poll of registered voters conducted 4 – 9 Sep 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 44

The most recent Democracy Corps (D) poll of likely voters conducted from 23 – 27 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 47

The most recent CBS News poll of registered voters conducted from 22 – 26 Aug 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 45

On this day four years ago John McCain was leading in the polls 47.7/45.2 but the President went on to defeat McCain 52.1/44.5.

If the general election was held today, according to national polls, Willard Mitt Romney loses to President Obama in the general election.

And according to state polls, if the General Election were held TODAY (note these are based on current poll numbers – not projections), the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers the President defeats Romney 347/191:

As a comparison, President Obama defeated John McCain 365/173 in 2008

Results of 10 consecutive simulations based on poll data as of 11 Sep 12

Obama 314/224
Obama 337/201
Obama 287/251
Obama 287/251
Obama 285/253

Romney 270/268
Obama 288/250
Obama 313/225
Obama 326/212
Obama 312/226

Of 10 simulations Romney wins only one as the President beats him nine (9) times, and usually by very comfortable margins.

The simulations use cumulative polling data by state and are not based off of national polling data.

 
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Posted by on September 11, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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The Master of Sleight of Hand Rhetoric, Willard Romney Says ‘Words are Cheap’

According to numerous news sources the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) presidential hopeful Willard Mitt Romney is attempting to pin his own moniker of flip-flopper onto the President claiming while the President will speak “eloquently,” as he delivers an economic speech in Ohio, “words are cheap.”

Willard says the President will “change course” after his comment last week that the “private sector is doing fine.”

Well, let’s see, record braking profits for corporations, record breaking bonuses to CEOs, the Stock Market well 4,000 points higher than it was when the President was inaugurated; hmmmm, looks like the President’s right, the private sector’s doing just fine.

“He said, as you know, just a few days ago that the private sector is doing fine, but the incredulity that came screaming back from the American people, I think, has caused him to rethink that, and I think you’re gonna see him change course when he speaks tomorrow, where he will acknowledge that it isn’t going so well, and he’ll be asking for four more years,” Willard mewed.

Haven’t heard any screaming; well, OK, there’s that noise from FOX News, and right wing radio, but if the President stood up tomorrow and said the sky was sunny and blue, they’d scream it was grey and looking like rain.

“So instead of three years and he’s out, he wants four more years,” he said. “My own view is that he will speak eloquently, but that words are cheap, and that the record of an individual is the basis upon which you determine whether they should continue to hold on to their job. The record is that we have 23 million Americans that are out of work or stopped looking for work or underemployed. That is a compelling and a sad statistic. These are real people.”

So, Willard thinks “words are cheap”, no surprise considering how often he changes his own words. It was just last week he was snidely saying of the President, “He says we need more firemen, more policemen, more teachers. Did he not get the message of Wisconsin? The American people did. It’s time for us to cut back on government and help the American people.”

But wait, that’s not all, when he found himself in the midst of real incredulity screaming back from the American people on his desire to cut the number of teachers, police officers and fire fighters, suddenly he’s back peddling saying, “it’s “absurd” to think he wants to reduce the number of teachers, fire fighters and police officers, and that those charges are “strange”.

Willard’s attempting to negatively describe President Obama’s as being “the most anti-investment, anti-business, anti-jobs series of policies in modern American history.”

“The reason that it has taken so long for this recovery to gain traction and to put people back to work is in large measure because of the policy choices the president made. He is not responsible for whatever improvement we might be seeing,” said Romney. “Instead, he’s responsible for the fact that it’s taken so long to see this recovery and the recovery’s been so tepid.”

Actually Willard, the reason it’s taken so long for this recovery to gain traction is because of the GOTP dominated House and the filibustering conservatives in the Senate; for almost two years the GOTP members in the House have introduced more than 100 bills aimed at ended a woman’s right to choose, while introducing none with helping the economy to get moving again. They’ve passed the Ryan austerity plan not once but twice, and stalled any additional recovery legislation friendly to the nation’s economy or to the President.

It’s comical Romney would attempt to portray the President as the one changing his mind when it’s Willard who can’t find a coherent policy lasting more than a single news cycle and often not even that long; and frequently he has trouble finding a coherent sentence, “I believe in an America where millions of Americans believe in an America that’s the America millions of Americans believe in. That’s the America I love.”

 
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Posted by on June 13, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 4 Jun 12 Edition

With 22 weeks to go, Republican Tea Party (GOTP) “it’s my turn” bully-boy Willard Mitt Romney has finally passed the “oh so magical” 1,144 delegates to officially make him the nominee.

However, with that said the final tally of current GOTP popular votes:

Romney 7,903,204 (48%)

Other than Romney 8,239,701 (51%)

While Willard’s now the so-called “nominee”, there’s still been more votes cast for anyone but Romney than for Romney from within his own party; as stated before, this has never happened since the GOTP started using the primary process, and it speaks volumes to how the party feels about their candidate, and about the likelihood of his overall success come November.

So, how does the GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

In the most recent viable’ poll(s) – which are any group other than FOX News or Rasmussen – the most current CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered voters conducted 29-31 May 12, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 49/Romney 46

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney still loses to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on June 4, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns?

 
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Posted by on June 1, 2012 in Humor

 

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Latest 2012 Presidential Polls – 18 May 12 Edition

This past week saw the demise of the Ron Paul epic journey towards the Republican Tea Party (GOTP) White House nomination leaving “it’s my turn” conservative Bully-boy Willard Mitt Romney all alone on the stage, prepped and ready to begin debating himself over each and every idea he’s ever had; of course even as the only guy running, Willard still has yet to capture the magic 1,144 delegates to officially make him the nominee.

Willard picked up two more primary victories this week in Nebraska and Oregon with a whopping 19 delegates, 44 still undecided, 3 for Paul and one for Santorum; the regular season primary wins to date: Romney 31; anyone but Romney 12.

The GOTP Delegate Count (1,144 needed to win) to date is: Romney 989; other than Romney 509.

The current GOTP Popular Vote Count is:

Romney 6,684,300 (46%)

Other than Romney 7,787,490 (54%)

Although Willard’s still the so-called “presumptive nominee”, fact is, week after week, there’ve been more votes cast for anyone but Romney than for Romney from within his own party.

So, how does the “presumptive” GOTP candidate stand up against the President?

Although my usual statement is “the most recent ‘viable’ polls (which are neither FOX News nor Rasmussen)” the most current FOX News poll of registered voters conducted 13-15 May 12 is just too funny to pass up; according to FOX News, if the general election were held today:

President Obama 46/Romney 39

If the general election was held today, Willard Mitt Romney still lose to President Obama in the general election.

How big would Willard lose? Well, if the General Election were held today, the Electoral College totals based on all available current poll numbers:

 
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Posted by on May 18, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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No Right Turns

 
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Posted by on May 14, 2012 in Humor

 

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